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BITCOIN and the powerful Stoch RSI Cycle Signal
The Stoch RSI is a very rarely used indicator, in fact the last time we made use of it on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) was around the bottom of the 2022 Bear Cycle. We bring it forward to you once more as December closed with the 1M Stoch RSI below the 20.00 level. Historically, every time the market did that, BTC's new Bear Cycle had already started but it was still in its beginning.
You can see that during the majority of each Bear Cycle, the 1M Stoch RSI settled sideways below the 20.00 mark and when it broke back above it, the new Bull Cycle had already started. The time distance between those signals during the last two Cycles has been just over 1 year (13 months, 396 days). This suggests that by January 2027, BTC's new Bull Cycle will already have started most likely.
As to a potential bottom? The strongest candidate is the 3W MA100 (red trend-line), which has been hit during all previous three Cycles. That is currently around $53000 and rising, so we expect BTC to hit at least this level before a Bear Cycle bottom around October 2026. Additionally, the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMBs) green Zone, offers a Buy Zone, which priced the November 2022 bottom.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals
You can see that during the majority of each Bear Cycle, the 1M Stoch RSI settled sideways below the 20.00 mark and when it broke back above it, the new Bull Cycle had already started. The time distance between those signals during the last two Cycles has been just over 1 year (13 months, 396 days). This suggests that by January 2027, BTC's new Bull Cycle will already have started most likely.
As to a potential bottom? The strongest candidate is the 3W MA100 (red trend-line), which has been hit during all previous three Cycles. That is currently around $53000 and rising, so we expect BTC to hit at least this level before a Bear Cycle bottom around October 2026. Additionally, the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMBs) green Zone, offers a Buy Zone, which priced the November 2022 bottom.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals
BITCOIN hit 10-month Low! Will it recover, at least a bit??
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) almost hit today (so far) its 10-month Low of the April 07 2025 Low (Support 1). It did so after a very disappointing 2-week bearish streak where it initially had a crystal clear 1D MA100 (green trend-line) rejection, followed by two on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The pattern is technically quite similar to the January - March 2025 Channel Down correction that led to the April 07 bottom. With the 1D RSI turning massively oversold in the process, hitting the 23.50 Support, where both the November 21 2025 and February 26 2025 Lows were priced, it is possible to see a rebound to test the 1D MA50 at least, again.
Since however this is a Bear Cycle and not just a short-term correction within a Bull Cycle, we don't expect a sustainable rally like April - May 2025 but rather a prolonged sideways volatile price action, that could retest the 1D MA100 even before making a new Low and start Phase 2. For now, at least, a rebound to $87000 seems like a technical probability.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals
The pattern is technically quite similar to the January - March 2025 Channel Down correction that led to the April 07 bottom. With the 1D RSI turning massively oversold in the process, hitting the 23.50 Support, where both the November 21 2025 and February 26 2025 Lows were priced, it is possible to see a rebound to test the 1D MA50 at least, again.
Since however this is a Bear Cycle and not just a short-term correction within a Bull Cycle, we don't expect a sustainable rally like April - May 2025 but rather a prolonged sideways volatile price action, that could retest the 1D MA100 even before making a new Low and start Phase 2. For now, at least, a rebound to $87000 seems like a technical probability.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals
#Bitcoin said “not done yet.” ⚡🟠
After the shakeout, $BTC USD Perp snapped back with force — bids absorbed the dip, volume stepped in, and price reclaimed key ground fast.
Weak hands out. Strong conviction in.
Volatility is back.
Patience > panic.
Not financial advice.
#BTCUSD #Bitcoin #Perpetuals #CryptoMarkets #PriceAction
After the shakeout, $BTC USD Perp snapped back with force — bids absorbed the dip, volume stepped in, and price reclaimed key ground fast.
Weak hands out. Strong conviction in.
Volatility is back.
Patience > panic.
Not financial advice.
#BTCUSD #Bitcoin #Perpetuals #CryptoMarkets #PriceAction
Bitcoin Z-Score at −0.65 — A Rare Signal
Bitcoin’s Z-score measures how stretched price is from its long-term norm.
• Z = 0: fair value
• Z < 0: undervalued
• Z > 0: overextended
At −0.65, Bitcoin is more discounted than at the same post-halving phase in 2012, 2016, or 2020 — something that has never happened before.
Historical data (5,681 daily observations) shows a strong relationship between Z-score and future returns. From Z ≤ −0.6:
12-month win rate: 100%
Worst case: +47%
Median outcome: +181%
Price doesn’t feel euphoric because Bitcoin is increasingly used, not just traded — settling value, acting as collateral, and absorbing institutional flows quietly.
Supply, however, is structurally tighter:
2024 halving reduced issuance
ETFs absorb BTC off-exchange
Long-term holders continue accumulating
The market sees “low interest.”
The data sees asymmetry.PLEASE FOLLOW BDV7071.$BTC #MarketCycle #BTCUSD #CryptoTraders #DigitalAssets #MacroCrypto
Bitcoin’s Z-score measures how stretched price is from its long-term norm.
• Z = 0: fair value
• Z < 0: undervalued
• Z > 0: overextended
At −0.65, Bitcoin is more discounted than at the same post-halving phase in 2012, 2016, or 2020 — something that has never happened before.
Historical data (5,681 daily observations) shows a strong relationship between Z-score and future returns. From Z ≤ −0.6:
12-month win rate: 100%
Worst case: +47%
Median outcome: +181%
Price doesn’t feel euphoric because Bitcoin is increasingly used, not just traded — settling value, acting as collateral, and absorbing institutional flows quietly.
Supply, however, is structurally tighter:
2024 halving reduced issuance
ETFs absorb BTC off-exchange
Long-term holders continue accumulating
The market sees “low interest.”
The data sees asymmetry.PLEASE FOLLOW BDV7071.$BTC #MarketCycle #BTCUSD #CryptoTraders #DigitalAssets #MacroCrypto
#BTCUSD Potential Buying Areas
Bitcoin has completed a clean bearish market structure shift, with strong displacement after rejection from the bearish OB and FVG
Next Buying Zones to Watch:
Buy Zone 1: 74,500 – 73,800
Buy Zone 2: 68,000 – 67,500
As long as price remains below the broken structure, bearish pressure dominates.
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$DOGE $PEPE $KAITO
#Binance #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #CZAMAonBinanceSquare
Bitcoin has completed a clean bearish market structure shift, with strong displacement after rejection from the bearish OB and FVG
Next Buying Zones to Watch:
Buy Zone 1: 74,500 – 73,800
Buy Zone 2: 68,000 – 67,500
As long as price remains below the broken structure, bearish pressure dominates.
👇👇👇
NEED LATEST MARKET UPDATES on BINANCE SQUARE & Gate io Square ❓❓❓
✅ FOLLOW ME NOW 🔥💰💵
🧲 Binance Square: https://www.binance.com/en/square/profile/Lions_Lionish
$DOGE $PEPE $KAITO
#Binance #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #CZAMAonBinanceSquare
🚨 $BTC ASCENDING TRIANGLE ALERT! 🚨
$BTC is holding strong right off the support line. The Ichimoku Cloud is locked in as immediate support—major strength confirmed here.
We need a clean breakout or a decisive breakdown to lock the next move. Watch this consolidation zone like a hawk. Massive move incoming.
#Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #BTCUSD 📈
$BTC is holding strong right off the support line. The Ichimoku Cloud is locked in as immediate support—major strength confirmed here.
We need a clean breakout or a decisive breakdown to lock the next move. Watch this consolidation zone like a hawk. Massive move incoming.
#Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #BTCUSD 📈
2026/2/1
btc 符合我们这一个月的预期，我们也在78900 平了所有空单，最近不管是白黄市场 还是btc市场 波动都起来了，这个位置我们说过有两种情况，第一是假突破，第二是真突破，我们暂时无法判定是否是其中的哪个，不过我过个人倾向假，但是也不能先入为主。我们这几天会尝试几次短线，多空有机会都会做。可能存在尝试和磨损。
eth一发入魂，直接到我们2370-2150之间 昨天的日线和周线 月k都不咋地 我还是倾向可能会去2140以下。
#ZECUSDT zec 之前这个下降趋势下轨 我标红是因为我不确定是不是这个通道 目前看是刚好，底部暂时不清楚 我觉得哪怕btc反转了 才能轮到山寨季 他基本上晚于btc eth 所以 抄底山寨我们等btc彻底反转吧
sol 也是关键位置 下面是88-81
每日更新交易策略 欢迎大家私信联系 进群实时交流！
eth一发入魂，直接到我们2370-2150之间 昨天的日线和周线 月k都不咋地 我还是倾向可能会去2140以下。
#ZECUSDT zec 之前这个下降趋势下轨 我标红是因为我不确定是不是这个通道 目前看是刚好，底部暂时不清楚 我觉得哪怕btc反转了 才能轮到山寨季 他基本上晚于btc eth 所以 抄底山寨我们等btc彻底反转吧
sol 也是关键位置 下面是88-81
每日更新交易策略 欢迎大家私信联系 进群实时交流！
周末血洗，BTC从$84k直接砸到$74.5k，11%跌幅送走一批人。现在$77.8k勉强站稳，但这反弹看着就虚。
技术面一塌糊涂。日线RSI 23，Stoch才7，上次见这种超卖还是2022年熊底。4小时RSI 32也在超卖区，ADX接近60，下跌趋势极强，不是随便能V回来的。短线15分钟和1小时有点反弹迹象，1小时Stoch冲到97，但超卖反弹能撑多久？MACD日线-1443的柱子摆在那，中期方向明确向下。
盘口卖压明显，买卖比0.2，空头主导。资金费率-0.0048%，负费率说明空头在付钱，做空情绪浓但也有点拥挤了。
宏观面更糟。Trump提名Kevin Warsh接Powell，这人对数字美元很上心，消息一出BTC就跳水。
ETF两周流出$28亿，散户机构都在跑，IBIT持仓成本已经亏了。Polymarket上72%押BTC跌破$65k，信心基本崩了。日本40年期国债收益率破4%，carrytrade平仓压力大，风险资产都得挨刀。2026年第一家美国银行倒了，规模不大但信号不好。
好消息是Binance要把$1B的SAFU基金转成BTC，首批$100M已经买了。Justin Sun也说要买$100M。大户抄底散户割肉，这种分歧一般还得磨。
支撑$74.5k和$73.8k，破了奔$65k。阻力$78.7k和$80k整数关口。
操作：观望。日线超卖确实诱人，但趋势这么强抄底就是接飞刀。等4小时RSI回40以上、MACD柱子收窄再说。非要做就轻仓试多，破$74k必须跑。
02-02 21:02 UTC+8
#bitcoin #BTCUSD $BTC $USDC
技术面一塌糊涂。日线RSI 23，Stoch才7，上次见这种超卖还是2022年熊底。4小时RSI 32也在超卖区，ADX接近60，下跌趋势极强，不是随便能V回来的。短线15分钟和1小时有点反弹迹象，1小时Stoch冲到97，但超卖反弹能撑多久？MACD日线-1443的柱子摆在那，中期方向明确向下。
盘口卖压明显，买卖比0.2，空头主导。资金费率-0.0048%，负费率说明空头在付钱，做空情绪浓但也有点拥挤了。
宏观面更糟。Trump提名Kevin Warsh接Powell，这人对数字美元很上心，消息一出BTC就跳水。
ETF两周流出$28亿，散户机构都在跑，IBIT持仓成本已经亏了。Polymarket上72%押BTC跌破$65k，信心基本崩了。日本40年期国债收益率破4%，carrytrade平仓压力大，风险资产都得挨刀。2026年第一家美国银行倒了，规模不大但信号不好。
好消息是Binance要把$1B的SAFU基金转成BTC，首批$100M已经买了。Justin Sun也说要买$100M。大户抄底散户割肉，这种分歧一般还得磨。
支撑$74.5k和$73.8k，破了奔$65k。阻力$78.7k和$80k整数关口。
操作：观望。日线超卖确实诱人，但趋势这么强抄底就是接飞刀。等4小时RSI回40以上、MACD柱子收窄再说。非要做就轻仓试多，破$74k必须跑。
02-02 21:02 UTC+8
#bitcoin #BTCUSD $BTC $USDC
📉 #StrategyBTCPurchase
Markets reward patience, not panic.
Build your BTC position step by step.
#BTCUSD #CryptoDiscipline #Binance
Markets reward patience, not panic.
Build your BTC position step by step.
#BTCUSD #CryptoDiscipline #Binance
$BTC BTC is trading at $78,849.59
The market is showing strong momentum as Bitcoin holds near a key level.
Volatility brings opportunity — stay alert, manage risk, and trade smart.
📊 Keep watching the charts.
📈 The next move could be big.
#bitcoin #BTC #CryptoUpdate #Bitcoinprice #BTCUSD
The market is showing strong momentum as Bitcoin holds near a key level.
Volatility brings opportunity — stay alert, manage risk, and trade smart.
📊 Keep watching the charts.
📈 The next move could be big.
#bitcoin #BTC #CryptoUpdate #Bitcoinprice #BTCUSD
Is $BTC really crashing to 45k? 🤔
Where are the 45k callers now? 👀
Let’s be clear.
Miners need price levels that keep them profitable ⛏️💰
The breakeven zone sits around 45k–55k.
If price stays below that, miners struggle, activity slows, pressure builds — that’s when a real crash happens ⚠️
Back to reality 📊
I’m calling 74,500 as the bottom — and we already bounced from there 🔥
Still, no confirmed trend flip while price stays below the range.
A daily close above 80k = strong reversal signal 🚀
Yes — this looks very close to the bottom.
Any extra dump from heavy FUD would likely be limited to:
➡️ 71,500 or worst case 63,000 — nothing more.
#Bitcoin
#BTC
#Crypto
#BTCUSD
#CryptoMarket
Where are the 45k callers now? 👀
Let’s be clear.
Miners need price levels that keep them profitable ⛏️💰
The breakeven zone sits around 45k–55k.
If price stays below that, miners struggle, activity slows, pressure builds — that’s when a real crash happens ⚠️
Back to reality 📊
I’m calling 74,500 as the bottom — and we already bounced from there 🔥
Still, no confirmed trend flip while price stays below the range.
A daily close above 80k = strong reversal signal 🚀
Yes — this looks very close to the bottom.
Any extra dump from heavy FUD would likely be limited to:
➡️ 71,500 or worst case 63,000 — nothing more.
#Bitcoin
#BTC
#Crypto
#BTCUSD
#CryptoMarket
$BTC $74,500 DEFENSE LINE HOLDING!
🚨 CRITICAL MOMENT FOR $BTC ! $74,500 is the line in the sand right now.
If we bounce here, expect an immediate surge. If we crack, the next major stop is $69,000. Are you ready for the move? This is where fortunes are made or lost. Follow for the next level analysis!
#Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #PriceAction #BTCUSD 🚀
🚨 CRITICAL MOMENT FOR $BTC ! $74,500 is the line in the sand right now.
If we bounce here, expect an immediate surge. If we crack, the next major stop is $69,000. Are you ready for the move? This is where fortunes are made or lost. Follow for the next level analysis!
#Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #PriceAction #BTCUSD 🚀
- 📅 2026.02.02 Trade Summary
🛡️ Seed Defense Mode
🚫 No trade today — Personal reason.
#BTCUSD #FuturesTradin #BİNANCEFUTURES
🛡️ Seed Defense Mode
🚫 No trade today — Personal reason.
#BTCUSD #FuturesTradin #BİNANCEFUTURES
In my opinion, there are several factors behind the deep correction of $BITCOIN
Summary of Causes (3 Key Points)
Liquidity Crisis: Institutional buying interest in ETFs is weakening, and investors are shifting to a "wait and see" approach due to global economic policy uncertainty.
Decoupling: Bitcoin has lost its correlation with Gold. While Gold prices rise, Bitcoin is dropping, signaling that the "safe haven" narrative is fading.
Technical Pressure: Massive profit-taking and a buildup of short positions in the derivatives (futures) market are driving prices down.
Strategic Approach (My Perspective)
A. For Long-Term Investors (#HODL):
DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging): If you still believe in Bitcoin’s fundamentals, consider buying in increments at strong support levels ($70,000 - $74,000). Avoid going "all-in" at once.
Portfolio Evaluation: Ensure your crypto allocation does not exceed your risk tolerance, as current volatility is extremely high.
B. For Short-Term Traders:
Wait and See: Wait for a confirmed trend reversal. Buying during a freefall (catching a falling knife) is highly risky.
Tight Stop Loss: If you decide to enter, set a strict stop loss below the $70,000 level to minimize losses if the price breaks further down.
C. Defensive Strategy:
Move to Stablecoins: Shift a portion of your assets to USDT or USDC to preserve capital while waiting for market momentum to stabilize.
Monitor ETF Data: Watch the inflow/outflow of Spot ETFs. If outflows begin to halt, it could be an early signal of a recovery.
Current Outlook: We are in a "healthy yet deep" correction phase. The best strategy for most people is to preserve remaining capital and avoid making emotional decisions.
$BTC
Disclaimer: This is purely analysis and opinion, not investment or trading advice.
ALWAYS #DYOR
#CryptoMarket #CryptoNews #CryptoCommunity #CryptoIndo #bitcoin #BTCUSD
Summary of Causes (3 Key Points)
Liquidity Crisis: Institutional buying interest in ETFs is weakening, and investors are shifting to a "wait and see" approach due to global economic policy uncertainty.
Decoupling: Bitcoin has lost its correlation with Gold. While Gold prices rise, Bitcoin is dropping, signaling that the "safe haven" narrative is fading.
Technical Pressure: Massive profit-taking and a buildup of short positions in the derivatives (futures) market are driving prices down.
Strategic Approach (My Perspective)
A. For Long-Term Investors (#HODL):
DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging): If you still believe in Bitcoin’s fundamentals, consider buying in increments at strong support levels ($70,000 - $74,000). Avoid going "all-in" at once.
Portfolio Evaluation: Ensure your crypto allocation does not exceed your risk tolerance, as current volatility is extremely high.
B. For Short-Term Traders:
Wait and See: Wait for a confirmed trend reversal. Buying during a freefall (catching a falling knife) is highly risky.
Tight Stop Loss: If you decide to enter, set a strict stop loss below the $70,000 level to minimize losses if the price breaks further down.
C. Defensive Strategy:
Move to Stablecoins: Shift a portion of your assets to USDT or USDC to preserve capital while waiting for market momentum to stabilize.
Monitor ETF Data: Watch the inflow/outflow of Spot ETFs. If outflows begin to halt, it could be an early signal of a recovery.
Current Outlook: We are in a "healthy yet deep" correction phase. The best strategy for most people is to preserve remaining capital and avoid making emotional decisions.
$BTC
Disclaimer: This is purely analysis and opinion, not investment or trading advice.
ALWAYS #DYOR
#CryptoMarket #CryptoNews #CryptoCommunity #CryptoIndo #bitcoin #BTCUSD
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