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📈 Bitcoin and major cryptos are showing signs of strong recovery after recent downturns, with buyers returning to the market in force and trading activity picking up sharply. �
Bullish sentiment could be building if BTC holds current support. Is this the start of a sustained bull trend or a temporary bounce? 👀
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Analysts who argue that Bitcoin is still trading significantly above fair value often rely on long-term on-chain indicators rather than short-term price action. These tools help assess whether Bitcoin’s market price is supported by actual network value and investor behavior.
1. MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value)

The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization (the value at which coins last moved on-chain).
High MVRV indicates investors are sitting on large unrealized profits
Historically, elevated MVRV levels have appeared near market tops
When MVRV rises significantly above its long-term average, downside risk increases
Current MVRV readings suggest Bitcoin is trading well above levels supported by historical cost basis, supporting claims of overvaluation.
2. Realized Price vs Market Price

The realized price represents the average price at which all existing Bitcoin last moved. It reflects the aggregate cost basis of the network.
Market price far above realized price often signals overheating
Past cycles show Bitcoin tends to revert closer to realized price during corrections
Large gaps between the two suggest speculative excess
Analysts pointing to a $70,000 overvaluation highlight that the current premium above realized price remains historically high.
3. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)

NUPL measures whether the market is mostly in profit or loss.
High NUPL = widespread unrealized profits
Extreme optimism zones often precede market pullbacks
Indicates emotional and psychological market conditions
Recent NUPL readings remain elevated, suggesting that investor optimism may still be ahead of sustainable equilibrium.
Why These Indicators Matter
Unlike short-term technical indicators, on-chain metrics reflect actual investor behavior, not just price momentum. When multiple valuation indicators simultaneously suggest overheating, analysts become more cautious—even if price trends remain bullish.
This does not imply Bitcoin lacks long-term value. Instead, it highlights that price discovery often overshoots fundamentals before rebalancing.
Final Insight
The argument that Bitcoin is still about $70,000 too high is grounded in valuation models that prioritize sustainability over speculation. On-chain indicators such as MVRV, realized price, and NUPL suggest the market may still be pricing in future expectations faster than current adoption supports.
For market participants, these tools serve as risk-awareness signals, not timing mechanisms.
This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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