4yearcycle

For a long time, the idea of profiting from the 4-year cycle in crypto has been pitched as the ultimate strategy. The narrative was simple: buy before the halving, sell after, and watch your wealth grow. It worked in the early years, creating a perception that this method was a surefire path to success.

But here’s the truth: relying on a single pattern, especially one as repetitive as the halving cycle, was never going to be a sustainable long-term strategy. While I remain bullish on the future of crypto and believe in the industry’s potential, it’s crucial to recognize that the market is evolving. The simplicity of a "buy low, sell high" every two years can’t be the sole strategy for everyone.

$ME

The Cycle That Doesn’t Work Forever

Yes, the first few halvings were successful, but that was because the market was still in its early stages, with no established consensus or long-term trends to disrupt it. Now, the landscape has changed. While the 4-year cycle may have worked as a shortcut in the past, we’re now seeing external factors such as macro trends, market liquidity, and the growing adoption of blockchain and cryptocurrencies take the lead in shaping the market.

Crypto is no longer the unknown asset it once was—it has gained global recognition. However, the industry itself is still in its early stages, with plenty of growth left to unfold. The key to navigating these changes is adapting to new market dynamics, rather than relying solely on past patterns.
$MOVE

Shifting Focus: Look Beyond the Halving

I’ve encountered individuals who still recommend waiting until just before the halving to buy in, expecting quick profits after. But this approach isn’t sustainable. The market is maturing, and it's influenced by broader macroeconomic conditions, policy changes, and technological innovations, not just the cyclical nature of halving events.

Crypto’s future is bright, but the key to successful investment lies in understanding the full spectrum of market drivers. Moving forward, focus your analysis on broader market factors rather than expecting the same old playbook to work indefinitely.

#CryptoMarket #4YearCycle #CryptoStrategist #LongTermBull

Bitcoin vairs nav tāds traki svārstīgs monēts kā agrāk 💥📉📈. Kāpēc? Jo Bitcoin ETF ir pilnībā mainījis spēles noteikumus 🔄📊.
Blockware’s Mitchell Askew saka, ka ETF ienākšana ir pārtraukusi Bitcoin veco ciklu 🔃. Tagad, pēc cenas pieauguma, mēs varam redzēt stabilitāti, nevis tipisko uzplaukumu un sabrukumu 📊➡️📉➡️📈.
Askew uzskata, ka šajā post-ETF laikmetā Bitcoin pakāpeniski pieaugs 📈 līdz $1,000,000 💵 par BTC. Svārstības palēnināsies 🐢, kļūs prognozējamas 🔮 un piesaistīs lielas iestādes 🏦.

Bitcoin has now entered the second year of its current four-year cycle, a phase that historically aligns with market peaks and early distribution.
Looking at past cycles, 2025 statistically fits the role of a bull-market top, while 2026 has historically acted as the Bitcoin bear-market year. This does not always mean a sharp crash — more often, it reflects a prolonged period of lower highs, fading momentum, and capital rotation.
What makes this cycle different is institutional participation. Spot ETFs and regulated exposure may reduce extreme downside volatility, but they can also extend the duration of bearish conditions.
Based on historical structure: • 2026 → Distribution & controlled bearish phase
• 2027 → Bottoming & accumulation
• 2028+ → New bullish cycle development
Understanding where we are in the cycle is more important than predicting short-term price movements. Successful traders adapt — emotional traders react.
Risk management > predictions.
#4YearCycle #Bitcoin $BTC

Analysts from Bitwise and CryptoQuant separately argue that growing institutional investment is reshaping the market.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) widely referenced four-year cycle — the idea that its price predictably rises after each halving, before crashing and recovering — might be losing relevance, according to separate analyses from CryptoQuant and Bitwise executives.

In an X post today, July 25, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared that the “Bitcoin cycle theory is dead.” Ju argued that in previous market cycles, large holders typically offloaded their Bitcoin to retail investors near price peaks. This time, however, those whales are selling into stronger hands.

“This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we thought. Trading feels pointless. Holders now outnumber traders,” Ju said in the X post.

The shift, in his view, undermines traditional trading strategies built around cyclical retail behavior. “My mistake was ignoring this shift in my ‘bull cycle is over’ call,” Ju admitted. “I sincerely apologize if my prediction impacted your investment.”
Still, the market hasn’t forgotten Ju’s previous claims. In early April, when Bitcoin was trading around $84,000, he warned that the bull run was likely over, pointing to rising Realized Cap — a metric that tracks actual capital inflows through blockchain data — even as prices held steady.

He interpreted the divergence as a signal of a bear market. Yet, Bitcoin kept climbing, and by July it had surged past $120,000, setting multiple new all-time highs this month.

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Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Theory Is Dead as Whale Strategy Has Shifted, Analysts Say
Analysts from Bitwise and CryptoQuant separately argue that growing institutional investment is reshaping the market.
By: Denis Omelchenko •
Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Theory Is Dead as Whale Strategy Has Shifted, Analysts Say
Bitcoin’s (BTC) widely referenced four-year cycle — the idea that its price predictably rises after each halving, before crashing and recovering — might be losing relevance, according to separate analyses from CryptoQuant and Bitwise executives.

In an X post today, July 25, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared that the “Bitcoin cycle theory is dead.” Ju argued that in previous market cycles, large holders typically offloaded their Bitcoin to retail investors near price peaks. This time, however, those whales are selling into stronger hands.

“This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we thought. Trading feels pointless. Holders now outnumber traders,” Ju said in the X post.

The shift, in his view, undermines traditional trading strategies built around cyclical retail behavior. “My mistake was ignoring this shift in my ‘bull cycle is over’ call,” Ju admitted. “I sincerely apologize if my prediction impacted your investment.”

the-defiant
BTC price August 2024-July 2025. Source: CoinGecko
Still, the market hasn’t forgotten Ju’s previous claims. In early April, when Bitcoin was trading around $84,000, he warned that the bull run was likely over, pointing to rising Realized Cap — a metric that tracks actual capital inflows through blockchain data — even as prices held steady.

He interpreted the divergence as a signal of a bear market. Yet, Bitcoin kept climbing, and by July it had surged past $120,000, setting multiple new all-time highs this month.

Halving’s Impact
The CryptoQuant CEO is not alone in questioning the model. Other longtime market watchers have begun expressing similar skepticism about the durability of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, has noted that the forces that have created prior four-year cycles “are weaker” now.

The halving’s impact weakens with each iteration, Hougan argued in an X post today, while external pressures — like interest rates and regulatory risk — have softened.

Meanwhile, bigger long-term forces are taking over, Hougan says. For instance, the steady flow of money into spot ETFs, growing interest from institutional investors, and Wall Street’s slow move into building crypto infrastructure.

“Regulatory progress began in earnest in January 2025 and will run for multiple years. Wall Street is just now starting to build on crypto, and will invest billions in the quarters and years to come. This started in earnest with the passage of the Genius Act this month,” Hougan noted.

The result, he suggested, may not be another explosive “super-cycle,” but rather a “sustained steady boom.”

The United States' stablecoin-focused legislation, dubbed the GENIUS Act, was signed into law by President Donald Trump last Friday, after a multi-month — though relatively speedy — journey through Congress. Other landmark U.S. crypto bills, namely the broader market-structure-focused CLARITY Act, have also advanced in Congress, but have yet to pass into law.
#4YearCycle #BTC #whales #CryptoCycle #btchalving