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Highlight Clip Arthur Hayes: Why Bitcoin is not going up? (ARCHIVE FOOTAGE)Arthur Hayes: Why Bitcoin is not going up? (ARCHIVE FOOTAGE) On June 26, 2026, Arthur Hayes stated in an interview with Bonnie Blockchain that Bitcoin has failed to rally despite money printing because AI capital expenditures have absorbed the market's marginal capital. He believes investors are chasing AI tech stocks and supply chains, while newly wealthy individuals from the AI boom prioritize buying hard assets or diversifying into NASDAQ stocks rather than investing in the crypto market. Furthermore, Arthur Hayes believed that if AI stocks crash, cryptocurrencies will initially plunge in tandem. Due to their 24/7 liquidity, investors will be forced to sell crypto to generate cash during margin calls before the market eventually stabilizes and sorts out the relative winners.

Highlight Clip Arthur Hayes: Why Bitcoin is not going up? (ARCHIVE FOOTAGE)

Arthur Hayes: Why Bitcoin is not going up? (ARCHIVE FOOTAGE)
On June 26, 2026, Arthur Hayes stated in an interview with Bonnie Blockchain that Bitcoin has failed to rally despite money printing because AI capital expenditures have absorbed the market's marginal capital. He believes investors are chasing AI tech stocks and supply chains, while newly wealthy individuals from the AI boom prioritize buying hard assets or diversifying into NASDAQ stocks rather than investing in the crypto market.
Furthermore, Arthur Hayes believed that if AI stocks crash, cryptocurrencies will initially plunge in tandem. Due to their 24/7 liquidity, investors will be forced to sell crypto to generate cash during margin calls before the market eventually stabilizes and sorts out the relative winners.
ARK Invest: Crypto Consolidation, Bankruptcies and Shutdowns to Increase in Coming MonthsARK Invest researcher Lorenzo Valente said the crypto industry is undergoing a deeper consolidation than previous bear markets, with capital allocation becoming increasingly concentrated as teams and exchanges lacking product-market fit exit the market. Revenue concentration remains high across multiple sectors, including applications, infrastructure, and L1s. Hyperliquid and PumpFun account for 67% of total application revenue, while the top three projects, including Ethena, account for nearly 80%. Valente expects industry M&A activity, bankruptcy filings, project shutdowns, and talent acquisitions to increase further in the coming months.

ARK Invest: Crypto Consolidation, Bankruptcies and Shutdowns to Increase in Coming Months

ARK Invest researcher Lorenzo Valente said the crypto industry is undergoing a deeper consolidation than previous bear markets, with capital allocation becoming increasingly concentrated as teams and exchanges lacking product-market fit exit the market. Revenue concentration remains high across multiple sectors, including applications, infrastructure, and L1s.
Hyperliquid and PumpFun account for 67% of total application revenue, while the top three projects, including Ethena, account for nearly 80%. Valente expects industry M&A activity, bankruptcy filings, project shutdowns, and talent acquisitions to increase further in the coming months.
Michael Saylor Opposes Bitcoin Consensus Changes, Advocates for a Simple and Neutral Base LayerStrategy founder Michael Saylor said Bitcoin’s biggest threat comes from internal factions rewriting consensus rules and seizing economic rights. He compared Bitcoin’s consensus rules to a constitution and opposed proposals including BIP-110, additional covenant machinery, and larger blocks, arguing they could weaken transaction freedom, blockspace scarcity, and network security while increasing validation costs and attack surfaces. Saylor said as the block subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks, miners will rely more on fees to secure Bitcoin, and weakening the fee market could threaten long-term security. He called for keeping Bitcoin’s base layer simple, neutral, scarce, and secure, with innovation built at the edges, and protocol changes made only when necessary and conservatively.

Michael Saylor Opposes Bitcoin Consensus Changes, Advocates for a Simple and Neutral Base Layer

Strategy founder Michael Saylor said Bitcoin’s biggest threat comes from internal factions rewriting consensus rules and seizing economic rights. He compared Bitcoin’s consensus rules to a constitution and opposed proposals including BIP-110, additional covenant machinery, and larger blocks, arguing they could weaken transaction freedom, blockspace scarcity, and network security while increasing validation costs and attack surfaces.
Saylor said as the block subsidy halves every 210,000 blocks, miners will rely more on fees to secure Bitcoin, and weakening the fee market could threaten long-term security. He called for keeping Bitcoin’s base layer simple, neutral, scarce, and secure, with innovation built at the edges, and protocol changes made only when necessary and conservatively.
Trade xyz to Cover Liquidation Losses Following SKHYNIX Price AnomalyTrade xyz announced that the mark price of SKHYNIX dropped from $1,127.9 to $917.25 at 23:01 UTC on July 27, based on executed trades relayed by multiple independent data providers tracking the primary Korean pre-market venue. Although the oracle system performed as designed, the drop triggered user liquidations. Consequently, Trade xyz has made a one-time discretionary decision to cover the liquidation losses attributable to this anomaly, with eligibility requirements and distributions to be announced in the coming days. Furthermore, the platform stated it will improve pricing systems to handle tail events.

Trade xyz to Cover Liquidation Losses Following SKHYNIX Price Anomaly

Trade xyz announced that the mark price of SKHYNIX dropped from $1,127.9 to $917.25 at 23:01 UTC on July 27, based on executed trades relayed by multiple independent data providers tracking the primary Korean pre-market venue. Although the oracle system performed as designed, the drop triggered user liquidations. Consequently, Trade xyz has made a one-time discretionary decision to cover the liquidation losses attributable to this anomaly, with eligibility requirements and distributions to be announced in the coming days. Furthermore, the platform stated it will improve pricing systems to handle tail events.
Robinhood Chain Launchpad Volume Surpasses PumpSwap at $1.23 Billion in a WeekData from @Adam_Tehc shows that Robinhood Chain launchpads generated $1.23 billion in trading volume over the past week, surpassing PumpSwap’s roughly $1.22 billion. Meme trading on Robinhood Chain did not appear to take volume away from PumpFun, but instead added to overall market activity.

Robinhood Chain Launchpad Volume Surpasses PumpSwap at $1.23 Billion in a Week

Data from @Adam_Tehc shows that Robinhood Chain launchpads generated $1.23 billion in trading volume over the past week, surpassing PumpSwap’s roughly $1.22 billion. Meme trading on Robinhood Chain did not appear to take volume away from PumpFun, but instead added to overall market activity.
Crypto Security Losses Top $1 Billion in H1 2026 as Incidents Hit Record HighOn-chain security platform Blockaid reported that crypto losses from security incidents exceeded $1 billion in the first half of 2026, across 212 incidents, the highest number recorded in any six-month period. Ethereum- and Solana-related projects suffered approximately $332 million and $326 million in losses, respectively, while the $292 million KelpDAO exploit was the largest single incident. Ethereum losses were mainly caused by code vulnerabilities, whereas more than 98% of Solana losses stemmed from compromised key and signing infrastructure, primarily involving Drift Protocol and Step Finance. Blockaid linked the incidents to North Korea-associated hacking groups.

Crypto Security Losses Top $1 Billion in H1 2026 as Incidents Hit Record High

On-chain security platform Blockaid reported that crypto losses from security incidents exceeded $1 billion in the first half of 2026, across 212 incidents, the highest number recorded in any six-month period. Ethereum- and Solana-related projects suffered approximately $332 million and $326 million in losses, respectively, while the $292 million KelpDAO exploit was the largest single incident.
Ethereum losses were mainly caused by code vulnerabilities, whereas more than 98% of Solana losses stemmed from compromised key and signing infrastructure, primarily involving Drift Protocol and Step Finance. Blockaid linked the incidents to North Korea-associated hacking groups.
Inside the Black Box of Market Maker Token Loans: From OTC Agreements to On-Chain DisclosureMany “market maker allocations” in tokenomics are structured as token loans combined with call options rather than direct sales. Projects provide tokens to market makers before TGE, but key terms such as loan amounts, strike prices, and repayment conditions are often undisclosed, making it difficult for retail investors to assess actual circulating supply and potential selling pressure. Bringing MM loan information on-chain could reduce information asymmetry in the altcoin market. Alongside the development of perpetual contracts and on-chain shorting tools, greater transparency around market maker agreements could improve price discovery, increase accountability, and reshape market incentives.

Inside the Black Box of Market Maker Token Loans: From OTC Agreements to On-Chain Disclosure

Many “market maker allocations” in tokenomics are structured as token loans combined with call options rather than direct sales. Projects provide tokens to market makers before TGE, but key terms such as loan amounts, strike prices, and repayment conditions are often undisclosed, making it difficult for retail investors to assess actual circulating supply and potential selling pressure.
Bringing MM loan information on-chain could reduce information asymmetry in the altcoin market. Alongside the development of perpetual contracts and on-chain shorting tools, greater transparency around market maker agreements could improve price discovery, increase accountability, and reshape market incentives.
TradFi Perpetual Open Interest Has Doubled Since May to Over $2 BillionAccording to CryptoQuant, open interest in traditional finance perpetual futures on crypto exchanges has more than doubled since May, surpassing $2 billion. Binance ranks first with roughly 35% of exchange open interest in both crypto and TradFi perpetual markets. The growth suggests crypto exchanges are increasingly becoming key venues for onchain, round-the-clock trading of traditional financial assets.

TradFi Perpetual Open Interest Has Doubled Since May to Over $2 Billion

According to CryptoQuant, open interest in traditional finance perpetual futures on crypto exchanges has more than doubled since May, surpassing $2 billion. Binance ranks first with roughly 35% of exchange open interest in both crypto and TradFi perpetual markets. The growth suggests crypto exchanges are increasingly becoming key venues for onchain, round-the-clock trading of traditional financial assets.
Kalshi Parlay Bettors Lose About $294 MillionAccording to Bloomberg, bettors on prediction-market platform Kalshi have lost about $294 million through parlay wagers. Retail users tend to favor low-probability, high-payout combinations in which a single incorrect outcome causes the entire bet to lose, while sophisticated traders profit by taking the other side. One popular World Cup final parlay cited in the report had an implied probability of just 2.7% at kickoff. The publicly available portion of the article did not specify the period covered by the loss figure.

Kalshi Parlay Bettors Lose About $294 Million

According to Bloomberg, bettors on prediction-market platform Kalshi have lost about $294 million through parlay wagers. Retail users tend to favor low-probability, high-payout combinations in which a single incorrect outcome causes the entire bet to lose, while sophisticated traders profit by taking the other side. One popular World Cup final parlay cited in the report had an implied probability of just 2.7% at kickoff. The publicly available portion of the article did not specify the period covered by the loss figure.
Crypto VC Participation Falls to Lowest Level Since November 2020According to CryptoRank, a crypto market data platform, 150 unique venture capital firms had participated in crypto funding rounds in July 2026 as of July 28, marking the lowest monthly figure since November 2020. This is far below the peak of 1,177 active investors recorded in May 2022. CryptoRank said the decline suggests crypto venture investment is becoming increasingly concentrated among a smaller group of funds, while investors are growing more selective when choosing projects.

Crypto VC Participation Falls to Lowest Level Since November 2020

According to CryptoRank, a crypto market data platform, 150 unique venture capital firms had participated in crypto funding rounds in July 2026 as of July 28, marking the lowest monthly figure since November 2020. This is far below the peak of 1,177 active investors recorded in May 2022. CryptoRank said the decline suggests crypto venture investment is becoming increasingly concentrated among a smaller group of funds, while investors are growing more selective when choosing projects.
Inside the Black Box of Market Maker Token Loans: From OTC Agreements to On-Chain DisclosureIf you have ever wondered, as I have, what “a 5% allocation to market makers” in tokenomics actually means, this article may be worth reading. Is that 5% loaned or sold? What is the strike price? Must the tokens be returned at maturity, or can the option be exercised? The answers to these three questions can determine an altcoin’s price trajectory for an entire year, yet retail investors almost never get to see them. Introduction In the spring of 2025, just a few months after Movement Labs launched the MOVE token, something happened that was both familiar and unusual in crypto. It was familiar because the story followed the standard altcoin playbook: the TGE marked the price peak, the market maker was accused of sustained selling, the project publicly denied the allegations, and the price delivered the clearest possible verdict. What made it unusual was that the market-making agreement itself came to light. Chat logs, the term sheet, the market maker’s holdings, the strike price, and the number of tokens loaned were gradually made public through Twitter, investigative reports, and community discussions. For the first time, the industry was able to see, through one specific project, how the standard MM loan structure, a “token loan + call option” agreement, could turn what was supposed to be a liquidity service into a cost-free channel for market-maker selling after listing day. In hindsight, MOVE was not an exception but the norm. The only difference was that someone leaked the agreement. The persistent selling pressure often associated with altcoins, even outside scheduled unlocks, is largely rooted in this same type of arrangement. Most of the time, however, these agreements remain buried in PDF files, encrypted Signal groups, and informal understandings known only to the project and its market maker. If the evolution of crypto markets over the past decade can be reduced to one central theme, it is the gradual transfer of capabilities once controlled by a small group, including leverage, short selling, and information, to retail investors through on-chain protocols. Perpetual contracts broke the asymmetry in access to leverage. Protocols such as Shortit are now breaking the asymmetry in access to short selling. Bringing the details of MM loans on-chain would dismantle the final barrier: information asymmetry in the primary market. Once these three forces converge, the altcoin market will, for the first time, have a price discovery structure comparable to that of traditional capital markets. This article examines these three waves of democratization: how each emerged, why they are now converging, and what the altcoin market may look like once they do. The Three Asymmetries in Altcoin Price Discovery An altcoin is not a stock. That may sound obvious, but nearly every structural problem in the altcoin market stems from a fact that is widely assumed yet rarely stated: it has the appearance of a financial market, but almost none of its underlying framework. A U.S. stock undergoing an IPO must pass through SEC review, underwriter pricing, a roadshow, a lock-up period, post-listing market-making rules, and disclosure requirements for insider sales. Every stage is governed by public and enforceable rules. Retail investors may not have a seat at the same table as Goldman Sachs, but they at least know the shape of the table: the size of the float, when insiders are allowed to sell, who the market makers are, and whether restrictions on naked short selling apply. Altcoins are different. From launch to secondary-market trading, almost none of the variables that matter most are subject to mandatory disclosure. The actual effective circulating supply, the identities and holdings of market makers, option strike prices, and unlock schedules, all variables that directly shape price expectations, are usually hidden from retail investors. This structural opacity has long produced three layers of asymmetry in the altcoin market. The first is leverage asymmetry. In the early crypto market, particularly before 2017, spot trading was virtually the only option available. Even when a retail investor’s view was correct, they could only express it through an unleveraged spot position. Projects, venture capital firms, and market makers, by contrast, could amplify the same directional bet many times over through OTC lending, derivatives desks, and the deployment of proprietary capital. As a result, even when two participants in the public market had access to the same information, their ability to act on it was fundamentally unequal. The second is directional asymmetry. Before perpetual contracts, crypto was essentially a long-only market. Short positions in BTC and ETH could just about be constructed through spot borrowing, but altcoins were almost impossible to short. This created a peculiar equilibrium: the marginal incentive of nearly every market participant pointed in the same direction, namely to push the token price higher first and deal with everything else later. Because only price appreciation could generate returns, narratives, KOLs, media coverage, and marketing budgets were all incentivized to pull in the same direction. A significant part of the altcoin market’s long-standing dependence on narratives stems from the fact that it was structurally a one-way market. The third is information asymmetry. Even after retail investors gained access to leverage and short-selling tools, they still did not know at what price or when to act. They did not know the actual effective circulating supply, how many tokens had been loaned to market makers, the strike prices of the options, or the economically rational choices available to market makers at different price levels. Projects knew, VCs knew, and market makers knew. Retail investors alone were kept in the dark. Together, these three asymmetries created the most persistent power structure in the altcoin market over the past decade: projects, early-stage VCs, and market makers controlled both the information and the tools. They could reposition before each round of tokens was passed on to retail investors, ultimately transferring price risk to participants who lacked equal access to either. This is a problem embedded in the design of the altcoin market, not a moral failing unique to any one project. What follows is also one of the most important structural shifts in crypto over the past decade: how each of these three asymmetries began to break down. Perpetual Contracts: Democratizing Leverage In 2016, BitMEX launched what seemed at the time like a strange product in the Seychelles: the perpetual contract, a derivative with no expiration date that uses funding rates to track the spot price. There is no exact equivalent to this invention in traditional finance. Traditional futures always have expiration dates, and those dates are what determine their hedging and arbitrage structures. BitMEX removed the expiration date and introduced funding rates as the cost of holding a position. In engineering terms, this standardized an indefinite leveraged position and made it liquidatable and custodial. Before that, crypto retail traders who wanted leverage could only use “margin spot trading” on a CEX. In practice, this meant borrowing money from the exchange to buy tokens, with a cumbersome process, opaque costs, and a primitive liquidation mechanism. Institutions operated in an entirely different way, using proprietary trading books, OTC lending, and cross-exchange arbitrage. Leverage was already a standard part of their toolkit. Leverage had existed for a long time. What perpetual contracts truly changed was its accessibility. BitMEX offered leverage of up to 100x, allowing anyone with USDT to open a position. After Binance entered the market in 2019, it brought this mechanism to retail traders worldwide. The trading interface was reduced to two simple buttons, long and short, margin ratios were calculated automatically, and the liquidation queue was visible to everyone. The 2021 bull market provided the final validation of this transformation: daily perpetual contract volume surpassed spot trading volume. The primary venue for price discovery in crypto shifted from the spot market to perpetual contracts. This transformation is often described as “retail traders being harvested by perpetual leverage.” That assessment is only half right. Perpetual contracts did cause large numbers of retail traders to be liquidated while using high leverage, but they also gave retail traders, for the first time, a tool that allowed them to make leveraged bets on equal terms with institutions. Before perpetual contracts, even if a retail trader correctly predicted the direction of the market, the maximum size of the position was capped by the amount of capital available for spot trading. After perpetual contracts, the trader’s ability to take a position was limited only by personal risk tolerance and margin management. More frequent liquidations are the price of democratizing leverage. This is an inherent feature of the tool, not necessarily a flaw. A market that allows retail traders and institutions to bet at the same table must subject everyone to the same risk structure. But perpetual contracts solved only the leverage asymmetry. Even with access to 100x leverage, a retail trader who expected an altcoin to decline would probably find that there was still no suitable instrument. Most altcoins had no perpetual contracts. Even when they did, liquidity was often so thin that funding costs would consume the returns. Perpetual contracts solved the leverage and directional asymmetries for major cryptocurrencies, but left two layers unresolved: directional asymmetry for altcoins and information asymmetry across all tokens. These are the problems that the next decade must solve. The Right to Short: Democratizing Directional Exposure If you believed in 2023 that a particular altcoin was going to fall, perhaps an L1 that peaked at launch, a GameFi token whose valuation had become detached from fundamentals, or an AI agent token whose narrative had run its course, you would have encountered an awkward reality: there was almost no way to short it. Perpetual contracts on CEXs covered only a small number of major cryptocurrencies. Most altcoins outside the top 50 by market capitalization either had no derivatives or had only one extremely illiquid contract. The order book might be so thin that a trade worth tens of thousands of dollars could move the price by 5%. The funding rate could remain persistently positive for short positions, meaning that traders had to pay a “short tax” every eight hours, while the liquidation threshold was highly unfavorable to position holders. As a result, even if the market call was correct, liquidity constraints eroded the trader’s ability to act on it, making the short mathematically unattractive. Shorting through spot borrowing was virtually nonexistent for altcoins. No CEX was willing to maintain lending markets for long-tail tokens because liquidity was insufficient and the risks to lenders were too high. This created a long-standing structural problem in the altcoin market: it was a long-only market. A long-only market produces a specific set of equilibrium effects. The marginal incentives of all market participants point in the same direction. Projects want prices to rise. VCs want prices to rise. MMs want prices to rise, at least before exercising their options. KOLs want prices to rise. The media wants prices to rise. Retail traders in the secondary market want prices to rise. When everyone in a market can profit only when prices increase, narratives, traffic, marketing, and community operations all become focused on one question: how can the price be pushed a little higher? This is a problem with the incentive structure and does not need to be framed as a moral issue. The deeper consequence is that when no one can bet on the downside, negative information can never be priced into the market. An efficient market requires pessimists and optimists to bet against each other at the same price before that price can approximate fair value. For most of the past decade, only optimists could place bets in the altcoin market. The only option available to pessimists was not to buy, and not buying leaves no signal in the price. This is the problem that on-chain shorting protocols such as @youcanshortit seek to solve: allowing any retail trader to short any token at any time at a transparently priced cost. The core mechanism can be simplified as follows. The protocol maintains a lending pool that allows any token holder to lend tokens to short sellers. The short seller pays a transparent interest rate determined by supply and demand in the pool, rather than by a CEX black box. The stablecoins received from selling the borrowed tokens remain in the protocol as collateral. If the token price rises, the position is liquidated. If it falls, the short seller profits. In traditional finance, this mechanism is known as securities lending, a specialized market open only to institutions. In crypto, it must operate on-chain and be accessible to retail traders because no CEX is willing to provide this service for long-tail tokens. It simply does not make economic sense for them to do so. The value of democratizing the right to short is easy to misunderstand. Most people assume that it simply allows retail traders to bet on falling prices and profit from crashes. That is only a small part of the picture. Short selling has always been mathematically difficult and characterized by asymmetric risk, so most retail traders may still fail to profit even when the tools are available. What it really changes is something deeper. Once a token can be shorted, excessively optimistic narratives can be tested by short sellers, while excessively pessimistic narratives can be tested by short covering. The altcoin market begins to take the form of a two-sided debate. But even with tools for taking positions in both directions, retail traders still face a fundamental problem: they do not know at what price or when to short. The most important variables determining an altcoin’s short- and medium-term supply, namely MM holdings and option strike prices, remain invisible to them. This is the third asymmetry, and the true last mile. Bringing MM Loan Information On-Chain: Democratizing Information A. The Standard Structure of an MM Loan To understand why MM loans sit at the heart of information asymmetry in altcoins, it is first necessary to examine their standard structure. Even retail traders who have spent years in crypto may have heard the term “market maker” without ever seeing what a real MM agreement looks like. Agreements between altcoin projects and market makers almost always follow the same template: Loan + Call Option. Shortly before the TGE, the project provides the MM with a quantity of tokens, usually equivalent to 1% to 5% of the circulating supply, in the form of a “loan.” The word “loan” is important from an accounting perspective. The project has not “sold” the tokens, so it does not need to disclose any proceeds from a sale. In the tokenomics documentation, these tokens remain classified as a “market maker allocation” or “liquidity reserve.” The agreement usually runs for 12 to 24 months. At maturity, the MM has two choices: return the same number of tokens or purchase them at a predetermined strike price. In financial terms, this choice to buy or not to buy is a European call option. The strike price is typically set at a premium of 25% to 100% above the TGE price. The agreement may also include profit-sharing arrangements, guaranteed minimum provisions, and market-making obligations, but Loan + Call Option is the underlying framework. This structure is highly attractive to both parties. The project receives immediate secondary-market liquidity without selling tokens directly. There is no sale for accounting purposes, and the tokenomics narrative remains clean. The MM is in an even more favorable position. It receives a large inventory at no upfront cost, gains upside optionality, and bears almost no downside risk. If the price falls below the TGE price, the MM can simply return the tokens without recognizing an impairment loss. The incentives are asymmetric. The project bears the opportunity cost, since if the token price rises and the MM exercises the option, the project loses the opportunity to sell those tokens at a higher price. The MM captures all the upside while bearing almost none of the downside. This is why market making has become one of the most profitable businesses in crypto over the past several years, even though almost no retail traders understand how the business is actually structured. B. How This Structure Systematically Drives Dumps Once the agreement structure is understood, it becomes clear why many altcoins face a constant stream of selling pressure even outside token unlocks. The key is to examine the MM’s rational choices across different price ranges. When the price is far below the strike, the probability of the MM exercising the option is close to zero. It would not buy a token at a $2 strike price when the market price has already fallen to $0.50. In this scenario, the loaned tokens have no long-term ownership value to the MM because they must eventually be returned. The rational choice is to sell them before repayment, buy them back at a lower price, and lock in the spread. Every cycle of “selling high and buying low” allows the MM to generate profits using tokens loaned by the project. Any portion not subject to profit sharing becomes pure profit for the MM. As the price approaches the strike, the incentives become more complicated. If the price rises above the strike, the MM will need to purchase the loaned tokens at the strike price when the agreement expires. The price increase benefits the MM, but exercising the option still comes at a cost. The rational approach is to sell in advance as a hedge, partially offsetting the potential exercise obligation. From the market’s perspective, this creates an invisible supply wall near the strike, which in turn suppresses attempts to break above that level. Together, these two mechanisms produce one of the most common yet difficult-to-explain phenomena in the altcoin market: persistent and seemingly irregular selling pressure outside token unlocks. Retail traders see the price falling but cannot identify any unlock event that would explain it. This is because the selling pressure does not come from the project or its VCs. It comes from the MM holding tokens “loaned” by the project. In tokenomics documents, those tokens are classified as a “liquidity reserve.” In trading terms, however, they are effectively already in circulation and generating continuous selling pressure. This is the structural basis of what is often called a “controlled market.” When a token’s price appears to be precisely contained within a certain range, repeatedly hits a ceiling whenever it rises, and always finds buyers when it falls, there is likely an option-induced market-maker behavior model operating behind the scenes. Retail traders simply cannot see its parameters. C. What Information Should Be Disclosed On-Chain? If MM loans are recognized as the most important black-box variable in the altcoin market, the next question is what information should be disclosed. Not every detail needs to be made public. An MM’s quoting algorithms and risk management parameters are part of its alpha, and putting them on-chain would undermine its business model. What should be disclosed is the minimum set of information that directly affects retail traders’ price expectations without revealing the MM’s proprietary algorithms: the number of tokens loaned and the relevant wallet addresses, the contract term, the strike price, the unlock and repayment schedules, the profit-sharing mechanism, and any guaranteed minimum and default provisions. Together, these six fields provide retail traders with enough information to use standard financial analysis to infer the MM’s rational responses across different price ranges, turning the current black box into a supply curve that can be modeled. The MM’s specific trading behavior, which constitutes its alpha, does not need to be disclosed. What should be disclosed are the incentive parameters behind that behavior. The technical implementation would not be complicated. A standardized schema, a contract that requires every token loan to be recorded in an on-chain registry, and an indexing service that analysts can query could all be built on the EVM with just a few hundred lines of code. The real challenge has never been the technology, but the incentives: how to persuade projects and MMs to disclose this information on-chain. That is the question addressed in the next section. D. What Happens to the Altcoin Ecosystem After Disclosure? If this disclosure becomes a reality, several immediate changes will occur in the altcoin market. The structure of selling pressure will become readable. For the first time, the “circulating supply” reported in tokenomics documents will be separated from the number of tokens loaned to MMs. Retail traders will be able to calculate directly: Reported circulating supply + Tokens loaned to MMs = Actual supply available for sale Once the strike price is public, price movements near the strike will be priced in by the market in advance. The strike will become a new key level in altcoin technical analysis, similar to the “institutional cost basis” in the stock market, but more precise because it is written into the contract. Combined with shorting tools such as Shortit, retail traders will, for the first time, be able to construct symmetrical positions around the strike. Accountability will become enforceable. Today, when a token falls sharply, the project can claim that it was “market behavior,” while the MM can claim that it was “passive hedging.” After disclosure, every outflow from an MM wallet will correspond to a public contract, and any dump can be attributed to a specific project-MM pair. For the first time, reputational costs will enter the MM’s decision-making function. Projects will also no longer be able to say both “there is no selling pressure from the team” and “we are working with a top-tier market maker.” After disclosure, they will have to choose one or the other. The most important second-order effect will be a “transparency premium.” Once some projects begin disclosing voluntarily, those that do not disclose will be assumed to represent the worst-case scenario, somewhat like Proof of Reserves. Retail traders will assume that these projects have loaned out large quantities of tokens, set low strike prices, and offered generous guarantees, and will discount their valuations accordingly. Disclosure will therefore shift from being a cost to being a signal, and from a self-imposed constraint to a tool for obtaining a valuation premium. This is the endogenous incentive that allows any disclosure regime to become sustainable. It is driven not by compliance pressure, but by market pricing pressure. Of course, everything described above is an ideal scenario. In practice, implementation would be extremely difficult. The Altcoin Market After the Three Forces Converge Leverage, direction, and information. The three asymmetries discussed in the previous sections have been addressed by three different types of protocols over the past decade. When these three waves of democratization are considered together, a new market structure begins to emerge. The democratization of leverage allows retail traders to amplify their bets when they correctly identify the market’s direction. The democratization of short selling allows them to take positions when they expect prices to fall. The democratization of information allows them, for the first time, to know at what price and at what time they should place those bets. Only when all three come together do retail traders finally have a complete set of tools for competing with institutions at the same table. Once all three tools are in place, the price discovery mechanism itself also begins to change. Altcoin price discovery has long been dominated by two factors: narratives, meaning whose story can attract the most attention, and liquidity, meaning who can deploy the most capital to push the price to a particular level. Before these three waves of democratization, both were consistently controlled through coordination among projects, VCs, and MMs. Retail traders were always the recipients of narratives and the providers of liquidity. The former determined what they bought, while the latter determined when others would unload on them. Once these three asymmetries are broken, the central drivers of price discovery shift from “narratives + liquidity” to “information + expectations.” Retail traders no longer see only KOL calls and candlestick charts. They also have access to readable MM contract disclosures, a transparent short-lending pool, and a set of option strikes that can be modeled. Narratives will continue to exist, but they will no longer be able to drive prices in isolation. Information will immediately price out the excesses created by those narratives. It is important to note that this will not eliminate the scope for coordination between projects and MMs. Sophisticated players will continue to find new strategies, such as splitting option structures across off-chain sub-agreements, dispersing strike prices through multi-leg derivatives, or replacing direct token loans with DAO governance tokens. Every evolution in disclosure rules creates new methods of circumvention. This is normal in any financial market. However, the marginal cost of such coordination will rise significantly. Today, the marginal cost for a project and an MM to design a contract that disadvantages retail traders is close to zero because no one can see it. After disclosure, the market will identify and price in any excessively aggressive terms. Contract design itself will become a public game. Collusion will not disappear, but its returns will decline substantially. A more important second-order effect is that the composition of market participants will be reshuffled. MOVE, discussed in the introduction, is one specific example. However, similar projects have represented much of the new supply in the altcoin market over the past three years. Their core business model is “low float + high FDV + aggressive market making + a narrative-driven rally.” Under a disclosure regime, they would immediately be repriced according to their actual supply curves, eliminating the economic foundation for their existence. The exit of these tokens would significantly lower the overall valuation baseline of the altcoin market. Projects with genuine demand that are willing to disclose proactively and adopt on-chain market making would receive a valuation premium, a more stable base of retail holders, and a longer market life cycle. Very few such projects exist today, but a disclosure regime would create positive feedback for them in the secondary market, causing their numbers to grow exponentially. A new type of participant would also emerge: on-chain MM protocols themselves. Once all key parameters of a market-making arrangement must be recorded on-chain, the MM role will become partially protocolized. Fully smart contract-driven “algorithmic MMs” will emerge. Projects will configure parameters according to a public schema, while contracts automatically execute market-making and token repayment, removing the intermediary layer represented by firms such as GSR and Wintermute. The MM business will shift from “relationship-driven + information asymmetry” to “protocol-driven + standardized,” ultimately reshaping the industrial structure of the altcoin market-making industry. Follow us Twitter: https://twitter.com/WuBlockchain Telegram: https://t.me/wublockchainenglish

Inside the Black Box of Market Maker Token Loans: From OTC Agreements to On-Chain Disclosure

If you have ever wondered, as I have, what “a 5% allocation to market makers” in tokenomics actually means, this article may be worth reading. Is that 5% loaned or sold? What is the strike price? Must the tokens be returned at maturity, or can the option be exercised? The answers to these three questions can determine an altcoin’s price trajectory for an entire year, yet retail investors almost never get to see them.
Introduction
In the spring of 2025, just a few months after Movement Labs launched the MOVE token, something happened that was both familiar and unusual in crypto.
It was familiar because the story followed the standard altcoin playbook: the TGE marked the price peak, the market maker was accused of sustained selling, the project publicly denied the allegations, and the price delivered the clearest possible verdict.
What made it unusual was that the market-making agreement itself came to light. Chat logs, the term sheet, the market maker’s holdings, the strike price, and the number of tokens loaned were gradually made public through Twitter, investigative reports, and community discussions. For the first time, the industry was able to see, through one specific project, how the standard MM loan structure, a “token loan + call option” agreement, could turn what was supposed to be a liquidity service into a cost-free channel for market-maker selling after listing day.
In hindsight, MOVE was not an exception but the norm. The only difference was that someone leaked the agreement. The persistent selling pressure often associated with altcoins, even outside scheduled unlocks, is largely rooted in this same type of arrangement. Most of the time, however, these agreements remain buried in PDF files, encrypted Signal groups, and informal understandings known only to the project and its market maker.
If the evolution of crypto markets over the past decade can be reduced to one central theme, it is the gradual transfer of capabilities once controlled by a small group, including leverage, short selling, and information, to retail investors through on-chain protocols. Perpetual contracts broke the asymmetry in access to leverage. Protocols such as Shortit are now breaking the asymmetry in access to short selling. Bringing the details of MM loans on-chain would dismantle the final barrier: information asymmetry in the primary market.
Once these three forces converge, the altcoin market will, for the first time, have a price discovery structure comparable to that of traditional capital markets.
This article examines these three waves of democratization: how each emerged, why they are now converging, and what the altcoin market may look like once they do.
The Three Asymmetries in Altcoin Price Discovery
An altcoin is not a stock. That may sound obvious, but nearly every structural problem in the altcoin market stems from a fact that is widely assumed yet rarely stated: it has the appearance of a financial market, but almost none of its underlying framework.
A U.S. stock undergoing an IPO must pass through SEC review, underwriter pricing, a roadshow, a lock-up period, post-listing market-making rules, and disclosure requirements for insider sales. Every stage is governed by public and enforceable rules. Retail investors may not have a seat at the same table as Goldman Sachs, but they at least know the shape of the table: the size of the float, when insiders are allowed to sell, who the market makers are, and whether restrictions on naked short selling apply.
Altcoins are different. From launch to secondary-market trading, almost none of the variables that matter most are subject to mandatory disclosure. The actual effective circulating supply, the identities and holdings of market makers, option strike prices, and unlock schedules, all variables that directly shape price expectations, are usually hidden from retail investors.
This structural opacity has long produced three layers of asymmetry in the altcoin market.
The first is leverage asymmetry. In the early crypto market, particularly before 2017, spot trading was virtually the only option available. Even when a retail investor’s view was correct, they could only express it through an unleveraged spot position. Projects, venture capital firms, and market makers, by contrast, could amplify the same directional bet many times over through OTC lending, derivatives desks, and the deployment of proprietary capital. As a result, even when two participants in the public market had access to the same information, their ability to act on it was fundamentally unequal.
The second is directional asymmetry. Before perpetual contracts, crypto was essentially a long-only market. Short positions in BTC and ETH could just about be constructed through spot borrowing, but altcoins were almost impossible to short. This created a peculiar equilibrium: the marginal incentive of nearly every market participant pointed in the same direction, namely to push the token price higher first and deal with everything else later. Because only price appreciation could generate returns, narratives, KOLs, media coverage, and marketing budgets were all incentivized to pull in the same direction. A significant part of the altcoin market’s long-standing dependence on narratives stems from the fact that it was structurally a one-way market.
The third is information asymmetry. Even after retail investors gained access to leverage and short-selling tools, they still did not know at what price or when to act. They did not know the actual effective circulating supply, how many tokens had been loaned to market makers, the strike prices of the options, or the economically rational choices available to market makers at different price levels. Projects knew, VCs knew, and market makers knew. Retail investors alone were kept in the dark.
Together, these three asymmetries created the most persistent power structure in the altcoin market over the past decade: projects, early-stage VCs, and market makers controlled both the information and the tools. They could reposition before each round of tokens was passed on to retail investors, ultimately transferring price risk to participants who lacked equal access to either. This is a problem embedded in the design of the altcoin market, not a moral failing unique to any one project.
What follows is also one of the most important structural shifts in crypto over the past decade: how each of these three asymmetries began to break down.
Perpetual Contracts: Democratizing Leverage
In 2016, BitMEX launched what seemed at the time like a strange product in the Seychelles: the perpetual contract, a derivative with no expiration date that uses funding rates to track the spot price.
There is no exact equivalent to this invention in traditional finance. Traditional futures always have expiration dates, and those dates are what determine their hedging and arbitrage structures. BitMEX removed the expiration date and introduced funding rates as the cost of holding a position. In engineering terms, this standardized an indefinite leveraged position and made it liquidatable and custodial.
Before that, crypto retail traders who wanted leverage could only use “margin spot trading” on a CEX. In practice, this meant borrowing money from the exchange to buy tokens, with a cumbersome process, opaque costs, and a primitive liquidation mechanism. Institutions operated in an entirely different way, using proprietary trading books, OTC lending, and cross-exchange arbitrage. Leverage was already a standard part of their toolkit.
Leverage had existed for a long time. What perpetual contracts truly changed was its accessibility. BitMEX offered leverage of up to 100x, allowing anyone with USDT to open a position. After Binance entered the market in 2019, it brought this mechanism to retail traders worldwide. The trading interface was reduced to two simple buttons, long and short, margin ratios were calculated automatically, and the liquidation queue was visible to everyone.
The 2021 bull market provided the final validation of this transformation: daily perpetual contract volume surpassed spot trading volume. The primary venue for price discovery in crypto shifted from the spot market to perpetual contracts.
This transformation is often described as “retail traders being harvested by perpetual leverage.” That assessment is only half right. Perpetual contracts did cause large numbers of retail traders to be liquidated while using high leverage, but they also gave retail traders, for the first time, a tool that allowed them to make leveraged bets on equal terms with institutions. Before perpetual contracts, even if a retail trader correctly predicted the direction of the market, the maximum size of the position was capped by the amount of capital available for spot trading. After perpetual contracts, the trader’s ability to take a position was limited only by personal risk tolerance and margin management.
More frequent liquidations are the price of democratizing leverage. This is an inherent feature of the tool, not necessarily a flaw. A market that allows retail traders and institutions to bet at the same table must subject everyone to the same risk structure.
But perpetual contracts solved only the leverage asymmetry. Even with access to 100x leverage, a retail trader who expected an altcoin to decline would probably find that there was still no suitable instrument. Most altcoins had no perpetual contracts. Even when they did, liquidity was often so thin that funding costs would consume the returns. Perpetual contracts solved the leverage and directional asymmetries for major cryptocurrencies, but left two layers unresolved: directional asymmetry for altcoins and information asymmetry across all tokens.
These are the problems that the next decade must solve.
The Right to Short: Democratizing Directional Exposure
If you believed in 2023 that a particular altcoin was going to fall, perhaps an L1 that peaked at launch, a GameFi token whose valuation had become detached from fundamentals, or an AI agent token whose narrative had run its course, you would have encountered an awkward reality: there was almost no way to short it.
Perpetual contracts on CEXs covered only a small number of major cryptocurrencies. Most altcoins outside the top 50 by market capitalization either had no derivatives or had only one extremely illiquid contract. The order book might be so thin that a trade worth tens of thousands of dollars could move the price by 5%. The funding rate could remain persistently positive for short positions, meaning that traders had to pay a “short tax” every eight hours, while the liquidation threshold was highly unfavorable to position holders. As a result, even if the market call was correct, liquidity constraints eroded the trader’s ability to act on it, making the short mathematically unattractive.
Shorting through spot borrowing was virtually nonexistent for altcoins. No CEX was willing to maintain lending markets for long-tail tokens because liquidity was insufficient and the risks to lenders were too high.
This created a long-standing structural problem in the altcoin market: it was a long-only market.
A long-only market produces a specific set of equilibrium effects. The marginal incentives of all market participants point in the same direction. Projects want prices to rise. VCs want prices to rise. MMs want prices to rise, at least before exercising their options. KOLs want prices to rise. The media wants prices to rise. Retail traders in the secondary market want prices to rise. When everyone in a market can profit only when prices increase, narratives, traffic, marketing, and community operations all become focused on one question: how can the price be pushed a little higher? This is a problem with the incentive structure and does not need to be framed as a moral issue.
The deeper consequence is that when no one can bet on the downside, negative information can never be priced into the market. An efficient market requires pessimists and optimists to bet against each other at the same price before that price can approximate fair value. For most of the past decade, only optimists could place bets in the altcoin market. The only option available to pessimists was not to buy, and not buying leaves no signal in the price.
This is the problem that on-chain shorting protocols such as @youcanshortit seek to solve: allowing any retail trader to short any token at any time at a transparently priced cost. The core mechanism can be simplified as follows. The protocol maintains a lending pool that allows any token holder to lend tokens to short sellers. The short seller pays a transparent interest rate determined by supply and demand in the pool, rather than by a CEX black box. The stablecoins received from selling the borrowed tokens remain in the protocol as collateral. If the token price rises, the position is liquidated. If it falls, the short seller profits.
In traditional finance, this mechanism is known as securities lending, a specialized market open only to institutions. In crypto, it must operate on-chain and be accessible to retail traders because no CEX is willing to provide this service for long-tail tokens. It simply does not make economic sense for them to do so.
The value of democratizing the right to short is easy to misunderstand. Most people assume that it simply allows retail traders to bet on falling prices and profit from crashes. That is only a small part of the picture. Short selling has always been mathematically difficult and characterized by asymmetric risk, so most retail traders may still fail to profit even when the tools are available. What it really changes is something deeper. Once a token can be shorted, excessively optimistic narratives can be tested by short sellers, while excessively pessimistic narratives can be tested by short covering. The altcoin market begins to take the form of a two-sided debate.
But even with tools for taking positions in both directions, retail traders still face a fundamental problem: they do not know at what price or when to short. The most important variables determining an altcoin’s short- and medium-term supply, namely MM holdings and option strike prices, remain invisible to them.
This is the third asymmetry, and the true last mile.
Bringing MM Loan Information On-Chain: Democratizing Information
A. The Standard Structure of an MM Loan
To understand why MM loans sit at the heart of information asymmetry in altcoins, it is first necessary to examine their standard structure. Even retail traders who have spent years in crypto may have heard the term “market maker” without ever seeing what a real MM agreement looks like.
Agreements between altcoin projects and market makers almost always follow the same template: Loan + Call Option.
Shortly before the TGE, the project provides the MM with a quantity of tokens, usually equivalent to 1% to 5% of the circulating supply, in the form of a “loan.” The word “loan” is important from an accounting perspective. The project has not “sold” the tokens, so it does not need to disclose any proceeds from a sale. In the tokenomics documentation, these tokens remain classified as a “market maker allocation” or “liquidity reserve.” The agreement usually runs for 12 to 24 months. At maturity, the MM has two choices: return the same number of tokens or purchase them at a predetermined strike price. In financial terms, this choice to buy or not to buy is a European call option. The strike price is typically set at a premium of 25% to 100% above the TGE price.
The agreement may also include profit-sharing arrangements, guaranteed minimum provisions, and market-making obligations, but Loan + Call Option is the underlying framework.
This structure is highly attractive to both parties. The project receives immediate secondary-market liquidity without selling tokens directly. There is no sale for accounting purposes, and the tokenomics narrative remains clean. The MM is in an even more favorable position. It receives a large inventory at no upfront cost, gains upside optionality, and bears almost no downside risk. If the price falls below the TGE price, the MM can simply return the tokens without recognizing an impairment loss. The incentives are asymmetric. The project bears the opportunity cost, since if the token price rises and the MM exercises the option, the project loses the opportunity to sell those tokens at a higher price. The MM captures all the upside while bearing almost none of the downside. This is why market making has become one of the most profitable businesses in crypto over the past several years, even though almost no retail traders understand how the business is actually structured.
B. How This Structure Systematically Drives Dumps
Once the agreement structure is understood, it becomes clear why many altcoins face a constant stream of selling pressure even outside token unlocks. The key is to examine the MM’s rational choices across different price ranges.
When the price is far below the strike, the probability of the MM exercising the option is close to zero. It would not buy a token at a $2 strike price when the market price has already fallen to $0.50. In this scenario, the loaned tokens have no long-term ownership value to the MM because they must eventually be returned. The rational choice is to sell them before repayment, buy them back at a lower price, and lock in the spread. Every cycle of “selling high and buying low” allows the MM to generate profits using tokens loaned by the project. Any portion not subject to profit sharing becomes pure profit for the MM.
As the price approaches the strike, the incentives become more complicated. If the price rises above the strike, the MM will need to purchase the loaned tokens at the strike price when the agreement expires. The price increase benefits the MM, but exercising the option still comes at a cost. The rational approach is to sell in advance as a hedge, partially offsetting the potential exercise obligation. From the market’s perspective, this creates an invisible supply wall near the strike, which in turn suppresses attempts to break above that level.
Together, these two mechanisms produce one of the most common yet difficult-to-explain phenomena in the altcoin market: persistent and seemingly irregular selling pressure outside token unlocks. Retail traders see the price falling but cannot identify any unlock event that would explain it. This is because the selling pressure does not come from the project or its VCs. It comes from the MM holding tokens “loaned” by the project. In tokenomics documents, those tokens are classified as a “liquidity reserve.” In trading terms, however, they are effectively already in circulation and generating continuous selling pressure.
This is the structural basis of what is often called a “controlled market.” When a token’s price appears to be precisely contained within a certain range, repeatedly hits a ceiling whenever it rises, and always finds buyers when it falls, there is likely an option-induced market-maker behavior model operating behind the scenes. Retail traders simply cannot see its parameters.
C. What Information Should Be Disclosed On-Chain?
If MM loans are recognized as the most important black-box variable in the altcoin market, the next question is what information should be disclosed.
Not every detail needs to be made public. An MM’s quoting algorithms and risk management parameters are part of its alpha, and putting them on-chain would undermine its business model. What should be disclosed is the minimum set of information that directly affects retail traders’ price expectations without revealing the MM’s proprietary algorithms: the number of tokens loaned and the relevant wallet addresses, the contract term, the strike price, the unlock and repayment schedules, the profit-sharing mechanism, and any guaranteed minimum and default provisions.
Together, these six fields provide retail traders with enough information to use standard financial analysis to infer the MM’s rational responses across different price ranges, turning the current black box into a supply curve that can be modeled. The MM’s specific trading behavior, which constitutes its alpha, does not need to be disclosed. What should be disclosed are the incentive parameters behind that behavior.
The technical implementation would not be complicated. A standardized schema, a contract that requires every token loan to be recorded in an on-chain registry, and an indexing service that analysts can query could all be built on the EVM with just a few hundred lines of code. The real challenge has never been the technology, but the incentives: how to persuade projects and MMs to disclose this information on-chain. That is the question addressed in the next section.
D. What Happens to the Altcoin Ecosystem After Disclosure?
If this disclosure becomes a reality, several immediate changes will occur in the altcoin market.
The structure of selling pressure will become readable. For the first time, the “circulating supply” reported in tokenomics documents will be separated from the number of tokens loaned to MMs. Retail traders will be able to calculate directly:
Reported circulating supply + Tokens loaned to MMs = Actual supply available for sale
Once the strike price is public, price movements near the strike will be priced in by the market in advance. The strike will become a new key level in altcoin technical analysis, similar to the “institutional cost basis” in the stock market, but more precise because it is written into the contract. Combined with shorting tools such as Shortit, retail traders will, for the first time, be able to construct symmetrical positions around the strike.
Accountability will become enforceable. Today, when a token falls sharply, the project can claim that it was “market behavior,” while the MM can claim that it was “passive hedging.” After disclosure, every outflow from an MM wallet will correspond to a public contract, and any dump can be attributed to a specific project-MM pair. For the first time, reputational costs will enter the MM’s decision-making function. Projects will also no longer be able to say both “there is no selling pressure from the team” and “we are working with a top-tier market maker.” After disclosure, they will have to choose one or the other.
The most important second-order effect will be a “transparency premium.” Once some projects begin disclosing voluntarily, those that do not disclose will be assumed to represent the worst-case scenario, somewhat like Proof of Reserves. Retail traders will assume that these projects have loaned out large quantities of tokens, set low strike prices, and offered generous guarantees, and will discount their valuations accordingly. Disclosure will therefore shift from being a cost to being a signal, and from a self-imposed constraint to a tool for obtaining a valuation premium. This is the endogenous incentive that allows any disclosure regime to become sustainable. It is driven not by compliance pressure, but by market pricing pressure.
Of course, everything described above is an ideal scenario. In practice, implementation would be extremely difficult.
The Altcoin Market After the Three Forces Converge
Leverage, direction, and information. The three asymmetries discussed in the previous sections have been addressed by three different types of protocols over the past decade. When these three waves of democratization are considered together, a new market structure begins to emerge.
The democratization of leverage allows retail traders to amplify their bets when they correctly identify the market’s direction. The democratization of short selling allows them to take positions when they expect prices to fall. The democratization of information allows them, for the first time, to know at what price and at what time they should place those bets. Only when all three come together do retail traders finally have a complete set of tools for competing with institutions at the same table.
Once all three tools are in place, the price discovery mechanism itself also begins to change.
Altcoin price discovery has long been dominated by two factors: narratives, meaning whose story can attract the most attention, and liquidity, meaning who can deploy the most capital to push the price to a particular level. Before these three waves of democratization, both were consistently controlled through coordination among projects, VCs, and MMs. Retail traders were always the recipients of narratives and the providers of liquidity. The former determined what they bought, while the latter determined when others would unload on them.
Once these three asymmetries are broken, the central drivers of price discovery shift from “narratives + liquidity” to “information + expectations.” Retail traders no longer see only KOL calls and candlestick charts. They also have access to readable MM contract disclosures, a transparent short-lending pool, and a set of option strikes that can be modeled. Narratives will continue to exist, but they will no longer be able to drive prices in isolation. Information will immediately price out the excesses created by those narratives.
It is important to note that this will not eliminate the scope for coordination between projects and MMs. Sophisticated players will continue to find new strategies, such as splitting option structures across off-chain sub-agreements, dispersing strike prices through multi-leg derivatives, or replacing direct token loans with DAO governance tokens. Every evolution in disclosure rules creates new methods of circumvention. This is normal in any financial market.
However, the marginal cost of such coordination will rise significantly. Today, the marginal cost for a project and an MM to design a contract that disadvantages retail traders is close to zero because no one can see it. After disclosure, the market will identify and price in any excessively aggressive terms. Contract design itself will become a public game. Collusion will not disappear, but its returns will decline substantially.
A more important second-order effect is that the composition of market participants will be reshuffled.
MOVE, discussed in the introduction, is one specific example. However, similar projects have represented much of the new supply in the altcoin market over the past three years. Their core business model is “low float + high FDV + aggressive market making + a narrative-driven rally.” Under a disclosure regime, they would immediately be repriced according to their actual supply curves, eliminating the economic foundation for their existence. The exit of these tokens would significantly lower the overall valuation baseline of the altcoin market.
Projects with genuine demand that are willing to disclose proactively and adopt on-chain market making would receive a valuation premium, a more stable base of retail holders, and a longer market life cycle. Very few such projects exist today, but a disclosure regime would create positive feedback for them in the secondary market, causing their numbers to grow exponentially.
A new type of participant would also emerge: on-chain MM protocols themselves. Once all key parameters of a market-making arrangement must be recorded on-chain, the MM role will become partially protocolized. Fully smart contract-driven “algorithmic MMs” will emerge. Projects will configure parameters according to a public schema, while contracts automatically execute market-making and token repayment, removing the intermediary layer represented by firms such as GSR and Wintermute. The MM business will shift from “relationship-driven + information asymmetry” to “protocol-driven + standardized,” ultimately reshaping the industrial structure of the altcoin market-making industry.
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Nexo Uses German MiCAR-Licensed Partners for EEA Custody and BrokerageNexo announced it has reaffirmed its product compliance across the European Economic Area (EEA) ahead of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR) entering into force. The digital assets platform operates via a localized setup, splitting its custody and brokerage infrastructure between two MiCAR-licensed German partners.Under this structure, Tangany provides institutional-grade digital asset custody, while DLT Finance (authorized under MiFID II and MiCAR) facilitates the brokerage of digital assets and financial instruments. Sponsored by Nexo

Nexo Uses German MiCAR-Licensed Partners for EEA Custody and Brokerage

Nexo announced it has reaffirmed its product compliance across the European Economic Area (EEA) ahead of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR) entering into force. The digital assets platform operates via a localized setup, splitting its custody and brokerage infrastructure between two MiCAR-licensed German partners.Under this structure, Tangany provides institutional-grade digital asset custody, while DLT Finance (authorized under MiFID II and MiCAR) facilitates the brokerage of digital assets and financial instruments.
Sponsored by Nexo
Hyperliquid Community Addresses SK Hynix Perp Anomaly: Deployed by XYZ and Under InvestigationHyperliquid’s xyz:SKHYNIX perpetual contract briefly fell 17.9% after an anomalous pre-market trade in South Korea’s NXT market priced one SK Hynix share at KRW 1.272 million, triggering a roughly 30% move and a trading halt in the underlying market. The Hyperliquid contract followed the move through its oracle, while Binance prices also declined amid cross-market arbitrage before later recovering. A Hyperliquid team member said the contract was deployed and operated by third-party team XYZ, which is investigating the incident. Under HIP-3, independent deployers are responsible for key mark-price, oracle and external price inputs for their markets.

Hyperliquid Community Addresses SK Hynix Perp Anomaly: Deployed by XYZ and Under Investigation

Hyperliquid’s xyz:SKHYNIX perpetual contract briefly fell 17.9% after an anomalous pre-market trade in South Korea’s NXT market priced one SK Hynix share at KRW 1.272 million, triggering a roughly 30% move and a trading halt in the underlying market. The Hyperliquid contract followed the move through its oracle, while Binance prices also declined amid cross-market arbitrage before later recovering.
A Hyperliquid team member said the contract was deployed and operated by third-party team XYZ, which is investigating the incident. Under HIP-3, independent deployers are responsible for key mark-price, oracle and external price inputs for their markets.
HSK Chain Partners with Morpho in Hong Kong to Build Compliant On-Chain Lending EcosystemOn July 28, HSK Chain and Morpho officially signed a strategic partnership agreement at the HashKey headquarters in Hong Kong, aiming to jointly build Asia's leading compliant on-chain lending ecosystem. During the event, representatives from both parties, along with institutional guests from Galaxy Digital, Steakhouse, and Timeless Silver, engaged in in-depth discussions on core topics such as CeDeFi, on-chain RWA lending, and stablecoins, collaboratively driving the innovation and practice of institutional-grade on-chain finance.

HSK Chain Partners with Morpho in Hong Kong to Build Compliant On-Chain Lending Ecosystem

On July 28, HSK Chain and Morpho officially signed a strategic partnership agreement at the HashKey headquarters in Hong Kong, aiming to jointly build Asia's leading compliant on-chain lending ecosystem. During the event, representatives from both parties, along with institutional guests from Galaxy Digital, Steakhouse, and Timeless Silver, engaged in in-depth discussions on core topics such as CeDeFi, on-chain RWA lending, and stablecoins, collaboratively driving the innovation and practice of institutional-grade on-chain finance.
Ex-Multicoin Co-Founder Kyle Samani Turns on His Old Firm: “They’re Working Against Everything So...Kyle Samani, a Multicoin Capital co-founder and former managing partner, said developers building in the Solana ecosystem should recognize that Multicoin is “working against everything you are building.” His criticism followed a joint filing by Multicoin and the Hyperliquid Policy Center supporting the CFTC as the sole federal regulator of exchange-traded prediction markets and calling for clearer rules and greater transparency in contract approvals. Samani stepped back from Multicoin’s management in February 2026 but remains a prominent Solana advocate.

Ex-Multicoin Co-Founder Kyle Samani Turns on His Old Firm: “They’re Working Against Everything So...

Kyle Samani, a Multicoin Capital co-founder and former managing partner, said developers building in the Solana ecosystem should recognize that Multicoin is “working against everything you are building.” His criticism followed a joint filing by Multicoin and the Hyperliquid Policy Center supporting the CFTC as the sole federal regulator of exchange-traded prediction markets and calling for clearer rules and greater transparency in contract approvals. Samani stepped back from Multicoin’s management in February 2026 but remains a prominent Solana advocate.
Highlight Clip MARA CEO: Using Electricity for AI Is Far More Profitable Than Bitcoin MiningMARA CEO: Using Electricity for AI Is Far More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining Fred Thiel, CEO of MARA, one of the world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies, said in a July 23 interview with Natalie Brunell that electricity has become the industry's most critical resource, as the same amount of power can generate far greater returns when used for AI than for Bitcoin mining. This is why MARA and many of its peers are shifting toward AI data centers. However, MARA will continue mining Bitcoin, as it remains an effective way to utilize surplus electricity in regions where energy is free or inexpensive.

Highlight Clip MARA CEO: Using Electricity for AI Is Far More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining

MARA CEO: Using Electricity for AI Is Far More Profitable Than Bitcoin Mining
Fred Thiel, CEO of MARA, one of the world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies, said in a July 23 interview with Natalie Brunell that electricity has become the industry's most critical resource, as the same amount of power can generate far greater returns when used for AI than for Bitcoin mining.
This is why MARA and many of its peers are shifting toward AI data centers. However, MARA will continue mining Bitcoin, as it remains an effective way to utilize surplus electricity in regions where energy is free or inexpensive.
Bitcoin ETFs Post $11.6 Million Outflow as Ether Funds Add $9.2 MillionU.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of USD 11.64 million on July 27, according to SoSoValue, with BlackRock’s IBIT posting the largest single-fund outflow at USD 8.82 million. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of USD 9.23 million, led by BlackRock’s ETHA with USD 11.75 million. BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager, overseeing USD 15.3 trillion as of the end of June.

Bitcoin ETFs Post $11.6 Million Outflow as Ether Funds Add $9.2 Million

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of USD 11.64 million on July 27, according to SoSoValue, with BlackRock’s IBIT posting the largest single-fund outflow at USD 8.82 million. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows of USD 9.23 million, led by BlackRock’s ETHA with USD 11.75 million. BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager, overseeing USD 15.3 trillion as of the end of June.
Highlight Clip Dragonfly Partner: Crypto VC Could Become History by 2030Dragonfly Partner: Crypto VC Could Become History by 2030 On July 21, 2026, Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi said in an interview that Crypto VC may be entering its “final investment cycle.” He believes that while Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins will continue to grow, the rise of major platforms will leave less room for new crypto companies to emerge. Qureshi noted that relying on single financial products or distributing through other platforms is unlikely to create long-term business value, and the crypto industry may become increasingly centralized in the future.

Highlight Clip Dragonfly Partner: Crypto VC Could Become History by 2030

Dragonfly Partner: Crypto VC Could Become History by 2030
On July 21, 2026, Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi said in an interview that Crypto VC may be entering its “final investment cycle.” He believes that while Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins will continue to grow, the rise of major platforms will leave less room for new crypto companies to emerge.
Qureshi noted that relying on single financial products or distributing through other platforms is unlikely to create long-term business value, and the crypto industry may become increasingly centralized in the future.
Stablecoin Market Shrinks $7.7 Billion in June, Biggest Drop Since TerraThe stablecoin market lost USD 7.7 billion in June, its largest monthly decline since the Terra-Luna collapse in May 2022, bringing total capitalization down roughly USD 10 billion from its May peak to about USD 300 billion. Yet adjusted transaction volume reached a record USD 1.79 trillion, rising 63% from May and 125% from a year earlier, suggesting usage for transfers and settlement remained strong even as circulating supply contracted.

Stablecoin Market Shrinks $7.7 Billion in June, Biggest Drop Since Terra

The stablecoin market lost USD 7.7 billion in June, its largest monthly decline since the Terra-Luna collapse in May 2022, bringing total capitalization down roughly USD 10 billion from its May peak to about USD 300 billion. Yet adjusted transaction volume reached a record USD 1.79 trillion, rising 63% from May and 125% from a year earlier, suggesting usage for transfers and settlement remained strong even as circulating supply contracted.
KOSPI Trading Halted After 8% Plunge as SK Hynix ADR Falls Below $140South Korea halted trading in KOSPI-listed shares for 20 minutes on July 28 after the benchmark index fell more than 8%, marking its eighth circuit-breaker activation of 2026. SK Hynix’s U.S.-listed ADR, traded under the ticker SKHY, fell below USD 140 and was last quoted at USD 139.45, down 11.89% over the past 24 hours. SK Hynix is one of the world’s largest memory-chip manufacturers and a leading supplier of high-bandwidth memory used in AI processors.

KOSPI Trading Halted After 8% Plunge as SK Hynix ADR Falls Below $140

South Korea halted trading in KOSPI-listed shares for 20 minutes on July 28 after the benchmark index fell more than 8%, marking its eighth circuit-breaker activation of 2026. SK Hynix’s U.S.-listed ADR, traded under the ticker SKHY, fell below USD 140 and was last quoted at USD 139.45, down 11.89% over the past 24 hours. SK Hynix is one of the world’s largest memory-chip manufacturers and a leading supplier of high-bandwidth memory used in AI processors.
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