Web3 Daily Research

🚨I predicted this WAR
Step 1: Bomb Venezuela
Step 2: Abduct President
Step 3: Steal 303B Barrels of oil
Here’s Trump's secret plan and what's next👇🧵

Before we start...
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Results in 24h

➠ 1
◈ The US carried out strikes on targets inside Venezuela overnight
◈ Trump publicly claimed Maduro and his wife were captured
◈ Full confirmation across all institutions is still unfolding
◈ Markets will react to power signals before legal clarity
➠ 2
◈ The real driver here is not democracy or drug enforcement
◈ Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves on the planet
◈ Energy control equals leverage over inflation and geopolitics
◈ Oil is the fastest strategic asset to seize in a global slowdown
➠ 3
◈ The official narrative will focus on narco - terror and security
◈ That framing creates legal cover for intervention and seizures
◈ The strategic outcome is energy influence, not moral victory
◈ When oil is the objective, messaging becomes secondary
➠ 4
◈ China has been the primary buyer of Venezuelan crude for years
◈ Any forced regime shift rewires global export flows immediately
◈ Losing discounted supply forces China into higher - cost markets
◈ That tightens marginal supply and lifts global risk premiums
➠ 5
◈ Regime change is never a clean one - night operation
◈ Retaliation, sabotage risk, and shipping disruption follow
◈ Insurance costs and logistics friction stay elevated
◈ Even intact production trades with a persistent risk premium
➠ 6
◈ Rising oil prices act as a tax on growth
◈ Inflation fears resurface before central banks are ready
◈ Risk assets sell first, and crypto is treated as high beta
◈ Initial reactions are fear driven, not ideological
➠ 7
◈ The second - order effect is more important than the first
◈ Open intervention accelerates distrust in global power rules
◈ Capital starts looking for non - sovereign value storage
◈ Gold reacts first, Bitcoin follows if distrust persists
➠ 8
◈ The dollar reaction is not linear
◈ Short term crises can strengthen USD via flight to safety
◈ Medium term coercion erodes confidence in the system
◈ Confidence erosion is slow, then sudden, and irreversible
➠ 9
◈ Ignore social media certainty and focus on real signals
◈ Watch oil, credit spreads, and emerging market FX stress
◈ Then track real yields and rate expectations
◈ Crypto follows liquidity conditions with a delay
➠ 10
◈ If oil pushes inflation expectations higher, cuts get harder
◈ Tighter policy extends restrictive financial conditions
◈ Liquidity thins and altcoin bids disappear quickly
◈ Bitcoin holds better because survival is now its core feature
➠ 11
◈ If headlines reverse, expect violent mean reversion
◈ If confirmation stacks, volatility persists for weeks
◈ This is where overtrading narratives destroys accounts
◈ Smaller size and discipline matter more than conviction
➠ 12
◈ Base case if escalation continues
◈ Short term pressure on risk assets and illiquid alts
◈ Medium term BTC strength versus everything else
◈ Long term another structural push toward onchain systems
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Reported losses from cryptocurrency phishing attacks plummeted 83% in 2025, falling to roughly $84 million from nearly $494 million the previous year.
According to a new annual report by Web3 security firm Scam Sniffer, incidents of “signature phishing” appear to be declining. However, the firm warned that this visible drop masks a darker underlying reality of more sophisticated actors.
Data Shows Phishing Losses Tracking Crypto Market CyclesThe annual report reveals a strong correlation between fraud and market volatility. Phishing activity peaked in the third quarter, resulting in losses of $31 million.
This surge coincided with the year’s strongest Ethereum price rally. During this period, ETH’s price rallied to near $5000 amid strong institutional interest in the digital asset.
The developments support the view that fraud behaves as a probability function of user activity, expanding as retail participation increases.
While the total volume of attacks declined, the lethality of individual incidents increased late in the year. In November, the number of victims fell by 42%, yet total financial losses spiked 137%.
This anomaly indicates that sophisticated attackers are abandoning low-value targets to focus on high-net-worth individuals, with the average loss per victim rising sharply to $1,225 during that period.
This anomaly signals a bifurcation in the threat landscape. Criminal groups are pivoting from mass-market spam to “whale hunting,” deploying sophisticated, targeted attacks aimed at high-net-worth individuals.
At the same time, technological upgrades within the crypto industry also introduced new vulnerabilities.
For context, the attackers quickly weaponized Ethereum’s “Pectra” upgrade, specifically exploiting EIP-7702.
This feature, designed to improve the user experience via account abstraction, was leveraged to bundle multiple malicious operations into a single signature, resulting in over $2.5 million in losses in August alone.
Scam Sniffer also pointed out that the total losses from these attacks could be significantly higher.
According to the firm, it tracked only on-chain signature scams and excluded losses from clipboard malware, social engineering, and direct private key compromises.
$Btc $eth

TLDR
Ecosystem & Tech: Recent partnerships, CEX support for unique deposit addresses, and major event sponsorships are boosting TON's visibility and technical capabilities.Technical Signals: A bullish MACD crossover suggests growing upward momentum, but the 6-period RSI indicates short-term overbought conditions, hinting at potential price consolidation.Market Dynamics: Despite positive community sentiment regarding resilience and strong trader confidence, recent fund outflows and external criticism from a prominent figure pose potential headwinds.
Positives
Ecosystem Growth:Toncoin is gaining significant visibility and developer attention by sponsoring Korea Blockchain Week 2025 and hosting a dedicated event, showcasing its mission to bring digital identity and assets to 500 million users by 2028.Technological Integration:A recent partnership between PythNetwork and TON will unlock high-fidelity data, enhancing DeFi, gaming, and scalable consumer services on the TON blockchain, attracting more builders and users.Technical Bullish Signal:The MACD indicator shows a recent bullish crossover, with the MACD line moving above its signal line and the histogram turning positive, suggesting increasing upward momentum for the token.
Risks
Short-term Overbought:The 6-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 69.01, indicating that Toncoin is in a short-term overbought condition, which could precede a price correction.Fund Outflows:Recent money flow data shows a net outflow of funds, with approximately -248,268 USDT in total outflow and -65,211 USDT in large outflow at the latest hourly close, suggesting selling pressure.External Criticism:Recent commentary from a prominent industry figure criticized Telegram for being "full of bots," which could indirectly undermine confidence in the TON blockchain ecosystem due to its close association.
Community Sentiment
Mixed Sentiment:
The community expresses mixed feelings, with some highlighting Toncoin's resilience and massive ecosystem support, while others acknowledge its recent price drop, though some traders remain bullish.
#TON $TON