TradingShot

Ngokusekelwe kuMfanekiso Wemijikelezo Yonyaka We-4 (4-year Cycle Model), i-Bitcoin (BTCUSD) isemavikini ayi-13 ngaphambi kokuba yakhe i-Bear Cycle bottom yamanje. Lo mfanekiso uyincwadi yakhe engcwele (holy grail) ye-BTC futhi ngokomlando uke wazihlela ama-Tops nama-Bottoms ngendlela ecishe iphelele.
Ngakho-ke i-BTC yenzani phakathi kwama-Bear Cycles ayo adlule amaviki ayi-13 ngaphambi kokuthi ifike ku-bottom? Yangena kulokho esikubize ngokuthi 'The Final Flush'. Kusukela ngo-2014, zonke lezi ziqephu (fractals) eziqala ngaphambi kwamaviki ayi-13, zaqala ukuthengisa okunamandla (strong sell-off), okwakuwumjikelezo wokugcina (final one) owagcina usakhe i-market bottom.

I-Bitcoin (BTCUSD) ibihwebelana phakathi kwe-Channel Down kusukela ngomhlaka-02 Juni futhi ngaso sonke isikhathi lapho iphula ngaphansi kwe-4H MA50 (umugqa wethrendhi oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka), kuqalwa uchungechunge olusha olunamandla lokuthengisa. Ukugcina bekuyi-Bearish Leg yephethini, ngakho-ke uma i-BTC ivala ikhandlela le-4H ngaphansi kwe-4H MA50 ngokulandelayo, linda i-Leg entsha ehlosela ukunweba kwe-Fibonacci 1.136 kanye no-$57000.
Qaphela futhi indlela intengo eyehlulekile ngayo futhi ukungaze izame ngisho nokufinyelela ku-1D MA50 (umugqa wethrendhi obomvu), okuwukuphikisa kokuqala kwemakethe. Lokhu kugcina ukuthambekela kwesikhathi eside kunzima kakhulu kube bearish.

I-Bitcoin (BTCUSD) ingena esigabeni sayo sokuphansi kwe-Bear Cycle. Sesikuxoxile lokho ngokujulile ekuhlaziyeni okudlule. Futhi azikho izinkomba ezingcono zokuchaza ukuthi sisondelene kangakanani nokuqhuma okungenzeka kunalokho i-RSI ne-STOCH RSI emshinini wesikhathi we-2M.
Ngenxa yokuthi, kwitshathi engu-2M, sesisanda kungena ikhandlela elisha (July-August). Futhi ngokusekelwe endleleni abaye bahlonza ngayo ukuwa kweCycle esikhathini esedlule, i-BTC ingase ibe isakha phansi kwayo okusha kukhandlela elilandelayo le-2M (September-October).
Njengoba ubona, isikhathi ngasinye lapho i-2M STOCH RSI iqedela i-Bullish Cross, kuyilapho i-2M RSI isendaweni yayo ye-Lower Lows Zone, i-Bitcoin yakha i-Cycle bottom. Okokugcina (Novemba 2022) lokho okwakusondelene kakhulu ne-2M MA50 (umugqa wethrendi oluhlaza), kungakaze kube njalo. Kulokhu kungase kusondele noma kube sekuhambeni nayo, okungahambisana nendawo encane yokuphansi engu-$50000 - $45000.

I-Cardano (ADAUSD) ibikade ihweba ngaphakathi kwe-Channel Down yokwenqatshwa okuqhubeka izinyanga eziyi-10 futhi ngeSonto yashaya yaphinde yanqatshwa ku-1D MA50 yayo (umugqa wethrendi oluhlaza) okokuqala ngqa kusukela ngomhlaka 17 Meyi.
Umlinganiselo omkhulu wesikhathi eside wokunqanda uyi-1W MA20 (umugqa wethrendi obomvu), owawenza ukwenqatshwa ngoMeyi 10 kodwa ngenxa yokuthi i-1D RSI isiseduze nokugcwala ngokweqile, lokhu okukhona kungenzeka kube namandla ngokwanele ukuqala i-Bearish Leg entsha.
I-Bearish Leg encane kakhulu ngaphakathi kwalolu hlelo ibe ngu- -45.72%, engakudonsa i-ADA iye ku-$0.11. Nokho, njengoba izinga lokwehla liya likhula kuzo zonke i-Bearish Leg kusukela ekuqaleni, silindele ukwehla okusha okungaphezu kuka- -52.27%, okwenza sicabange ukuthi u-$0.10 uzoshaywa ekwehleni kwamanje.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) tau tab tom lag luam txij xyoo 2025 rau hauv ib qho Head thiab Shoulders (H&S) zoo ib yam li xyoo 2021–2022. Kev lag luam no nyob rau theem kawg xyoo ntawm Bull Cycle thiab tag nrho lub sijhawm ntawm Bear Cycle.
Koj pom tau tias qhov sib luag ntawm ob tus qauv H&S no siab heev, tuav cov qib tseem ceeb MA Support thiab Resistance nyob rau tib lub sijhawm. Tam sim no (Lub Xya Hli 2026) nws zoo li peb nyob rau txoj hauj lwm tib yam li Lub Xya Hli 2022, vim peb twb tau tawg dhau 1W MA200 (kab trend-line xim txiv kab ntxwv) thiab tab tom lag luam nyob ib ncig ntawm nws.
Raws li tau hais ntau zaus hauv kev tshuaj xyuas yav dhau los, xyoo 2022 Bear Cycle tau nres khov nraim ntawm nws 1W MA350 (kab trend-line xim liab). Yog li ntawd, qhov ntawd yog peb qhov kev kwv yees qis tshaj plaws ua lub Target rau qhov kev poob qis ntawm Cycle no. Qhov no yog vim li cas peb thiaj cia siab tsawg kawg yog $50000.

IBitcoin (BTCUSD) isanda kuvala izolo 3 izikhathi eziqondile ezibomvu zekota (amakhandlela wezinyanga ezi-3) okwesine kuphela emlandweni! Noma kunini lapho lokho kwenzeka, kwakuphawula iLow enkulu, kungaba amaphansi eBear Cycle ka-2014 no-2022 noma i-March 2020 COVID flash-crash Low.
Ngenxa yalokho, umlando uphakamisa ukuthi iLow kaJuni kungenzeka kube yiLow entsha enkulu kanye nephansi leBear Cycle yamanje.
Nokho, ukulandelana kwangaphambili okungu-3 kwekota ebomvu eqondile okwakubeka amanani phansi eBear Cycle ka-2014 no-2022, akuzange kuqale ekuqaleni kweCycle njengokulandelana kwamanje okuqale ngqo ngo-Okthoba 2025 ku-All Time High (ATH).

XRP (XRPUSD) កំពុងជួញដូរនៅក្នុង «Channel Down» ស្ទើរតែ 1 ឆ្នាំ ចាប់តាំងពីកំពូលវដ្តថ្ងៃទី 21 កក្កដា ឆ្នាំ 2025 ហើយ ទោះបីជាមានការប៉ុនប៉ងនៅដើមខែមិថុនា ដើម្បីងើបឡើងវិញ 1D MA50 (ខ្សែបន្ទាត់និន្នាការពណ៌ខៀវ) ក៏ដោយ វាបរាជ័យ។ នេះធ្វើឲ្យនិន្នាការរយៈពេលខ្លីនៅតែអាក្រក់/ធ្លាក់ (bearish) ផងដែរ រួមជាមួយនឹងនិន្នាការរយៈពេលវែង។
តាមបច្ចេកទេស យើងកំពុងស្ថិតក្នុងលំនាំ «Bearish Leg» ទី 3 ហើយ ដរាបណាតម្លៃនៅទាបជាង 1D MA50 វានឹងមានគោលដៅទៅរកបាត «Lower Low» ថ្មី។ «Lower Lows» មុនៗត្រូវបានកំណត់តម្លៃបន្ទាប់ពីការធ្លាក់ចុះ -53.42% និង -50.29% រៀងៗខ្លួន ដូចนั้นធាតុនៃភាពស៊ីមេទ្រីនៅទីនេះមានភាពរឹងមាំ។

I-Bitcoin (BTCUSD) eminyakeni engu-11 edlule ibe nesikhathi sayo esiphansi se-Bear Cycle okwakulinganiselwa izinyanga ezingu-17 noma ezingu-18 ngaphambi kwe-Halving elandelayo. Njengoba ubona kuleshadi, umlando ubonisa ukuthi i-bottom ka-January 2015 yabekwa izinyanga ezingu-18 ngaphambi kwe-Halving 2 (July 09 2016), i-bottom ka-December 2018 yabekwa izinyanga ezingu-17 ngaphambi kwe-Halving 3 (May 11 2020) kanti ne-bottom ka-November 2022 nayo yabekwa izinyanga ezingu-17 ngaphambi kwe-Halving 4 (April 20 2024).
Ngokunohafu 5 okulindeleke cishe ngo-April 2028, singalindela ukuthi i-Bear Cycle yamanje isesigabeni esiphansi sakhiwe noma ngo-Okthoba (izinyanga ezingu-18 ngaphambi) noma ngoNovemba (izinyanga ezingu-17 ngaphambi) kwenzeka lowo mcimbi.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) ប្រវត្តិសាស្ត្រមានការធ្លាក់ចុះយ៉ាងហោចណាស់ស្មើនឹងចំនួនធ្លាក់ពី High នៃការងើបឡើងពី Low ដំបូង នៅលើរាល់ Bear Cycle។ ជាទូទៅវាមានច្រើននៅជិតកណ្តាល (កម្រិត Time Fibonacci 0.5 (ពណ៌ខៀវ)) ទោះបីជានៅខែកុម្ភៈ 2018 វានៅជិតដើម។
ដូចដែលអ្នកឃើញ ឆ្នាំ 2014 និង 2018 មាន Bearish Legs ស្មើគ្នាប្រហែល (ប៉ុន្តែឆ្នាំទី 2 នៅតែខ្លាំងជាងបន្តិច) ខណៈដែលឆ្នាំ 2022 បង្ហាញភាពខុសគ្នាខ្លាំង (-50.72% បើប្រៀបនឹង -67.98%) ។
ដោយផ្អែកលើនោះ ដោយគិតថា Bear Cycle បច្ចុប្បន្ននៃ Bearish Leg ទី 1 មាន -52.33% នោះ Leg ទី 2 'គួរ' យ៉ាងហោចណាស់ស្មើគ្នា នោះគឺ $40000 បើមិនដូច្នោះក៏ទាបបន្តិច។

IBitcoin (BTCUSD) lihlale lisendaweni ye-Bottom Zone ye-Realized Price Bands (RPBs), okuyindawo eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka engaphakathi kwe-Realized Price (umugqa oqinile omnyama) kanye ne-Sub-band (umugqa oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka).
Enyaniso, kunabo 3 kwabangu-4 izikhathi, i-BTC yaphinde yadlula kancane (ngoNovemba 2022 kuphela yahlungwa ngentengo ngqo ngaphakathi kwe-Sub-band). Lawa ma-Bear Cycle bottoms kuma-RPBs Low, avele ngesikhathi esifanayo lapho i-1M RSI ishaya noma ingena ku-Lower Lows Buy Zone yayo yeminyaka engu-15.
Njengoba ubona, ngokobuchwepheshe kuyinto enengqondo kakhulu ukulindela ukuthi i-1M RSI iyishaye ngo-Okthoba 2026, okuyilapho isikhathi se-Bear Cycle kufanele siphele khona ngokusekelwe kumodeli ye-4-year Cycle Theory. Ngokusekelwe ekuziphatheni okucatshangelwayo, i-RPBs Bottom Zone kufanele ibe phakathi kuka-$54000 - $40000. Kungathiwa ukuthi u-50k-45k yindawo egxile kakhulu yesidingo.

I-Bitcoin (BTCUSD) isiqedile isiqephu sokuqala sayo se-1W MACD Bearish Cross ngaphansi kuka-0.00 kusukela ngo-2022. Lona wuphawu olubalulekile lokuthi i-Bear Cycle isiqala kancane isigaba sayo sokugcina.
Izikhathi ezimbili zokugcina lokhu kwenzeka kwakungamasonto ka-April 18 2022 kanye no-November 05 2018. Zombili kwakuyizimo zokugcina ze-1W MACD Bearish Cross emjikelezweni ngamunye we-Bear Cycles futhi zaqala inqubo yokwehla/ukufinyelela phansi kwe-BTC.
Iphansi le-December 2018 Cycle laliku-1W MA200 (umugqa wethrendi owolintshi), i-November 2022 laliku-1W MA350 (umugqa wethrendi obomvu) ngakho-ke iphansi elilindelekile eliseduze no-October 2026 lingaba futhi ku-1W MA350 (ngoba i-1W MA200 isiphinde yaphulika futhi) noma i-MA engu-150 ngaphansi, okuyi-1W MA500 (umugqa wethrendi omnyama).

ເກືອບ 4 ເດືອນກ່ອນ (ເດືອນມີນາ 09, ເບິ່ງກາຟດ້ານລຸ່ມ), ພວກເຮົາໄດ້ອອກຄໍາແຜນທີ່ວ່າ ຄື້ນ Bear Cycle ຊ່ວງເຄິ່ງທີສອງຂອງ Solana 's (SOLUSD) ຈະດໍາເນີນໄປແນວໃດ:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SOLUSD/IXM495uY-SOLANA-Anatomy-of-the-rest-of-the-Bear-Cycle/
ມາເບິ່ງຍ້ອນກັບໃນມື້ນີ້, ມັນບໍ່ສາມາດພັດທະນາໄດ້ດີກວ່ານີ້ອີກ ເພາະລາຄາໄດ້ທະລຸຕ່ໍາລະດັບ 0.618 Fibonacci ແລ້ວ ແລະ ຢູ່ໃນກ່ອງສີແດງ, ກໍາລັງກະກຽມສໍາລັບການຂາຍອອກຄັ້ງສຸດທ້າຍ ທີ່ຈະກໍານົດລາຄາຈຸດຕໍ່າສຸດຂອງ Bear Cycle.
ດ້ວຍການປັບແປງເພື່ອໃຫ້ເໝາະກັບຮູບແບບໄດ້ຖືກຕ້ອງຂຶ້ນເລັກນ້ອຍ, ພວກເຮົາສາມາດເຫັນໄດ້ວ່າແນວໂນ້ມຍັງເປັນຂາລົງຫນັກຫຼາຍ, ຢູ່ຕ່ໍາກວ່າ 1D MA200 (ເສັ້ນແນວໂນ້ມສີແດງ), ໂດຍ 1W RSI ຍັງຄົງຄືນແບບປີ 2022.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) កំពុងតែជួញដូរក្នុង Fibonacci Channel Down ពេញមួយអំឡុង Bear Cycle របស់វា។ ត្រឹមតែពីចុងខែមេសា ដល់ចុងខែឧសភា ប៉ុណ្ណោះ វាបានផ្ទុះទៅកាន់ការពង្រីក Fibonacci -0.382 ប៉ុន្តែឥឡូវនេះតម្លៃបានវិលត្រឡប់មកស្របក្នុងលំនាំវិញ ដោយបានបង្រួម (converged) តាំងពីពេលនោះមក។
តាមពិត ការឡើងខ្ពស់ថ្ងៃទី 15 មិថុនា បានកើតឡើងត្រឹមតែជាចំរាស់កំពូល (កម្រិត Fib 0.0) របស់លំនាំនោះ ហើយថ្ងៃនេះវាបានធ្លាក់ចុះខាងក្រោម 1W MA200 (ខ្សែបន្ទាត់និន្នាការខ្មៅ) ម្តងទៀត។ ចលនាតម្លៃចាប់តាំងពីការទាបថ្ងៃទី 05 មិថុនា អាចជាសញ្ញា Bear Flag សម្រាប់វដ្ត (Cycle) ឬជាបច្ចេកទេសជាជើង Bullish Leg សម្រាប់ Channel Down ។

Ua faaalia e le Bitcoin (BTCUSD) se faasologa e matuā mautu ma matua tutusa o Phases talu mai le pito i lalo o Novema 2022 o le Bear Cycle muamua.
O le auala e te vaai ai, o Low uma lava talu ai na tupu ai le pito i lalo i totonu o le 28 - 35 vaiaso, ma le 31 - 32 o le tele o taimi na tupu. O le pito i lalo o le vaega o iai nei e foliga mai na hinengam/taʻua i le vaiaso o Iuni 01, ma o le 1W MA200 (lanu moli laina-suia) o lo o taofia pea e oo mai i le taimi nei, e ui lava na solia i lena moli moli (candle wick).
O le toe faia o le umi o le Phase e 28 vaiaso peitaʻi (lea sa avea ma le maualalo i lenei faataitaiga), o le a tau ai le isi Low i le vaiaso o Tesema 14 2026, lea e faaumiumi ai le 1-tausaga Bear Cycle Theory e tusa ma le 2 masina. Ae talu ai o le pito i lalo lea o le Cycle, e le o lona uiga e sili ona tāua.

I-Bitcoin (BTCUSD) isenokhula olubomvu oluqine kakhulu lwekhandlela 1W, umzimba walo uye wenqatshwa kanye ngqo eLeveli le-Support elibambe yonke imizimba yamakhandlela kaFebruwari kuya kuMashi ngaphezu kwalo. Sibiza lokhu ngokuthi i-Cycle Pivot, kulesi samanje singesesibili. Leso sangaphambili (i-Pivot 1) yisona esakha ingxenye yesibili ye-January Bearish Leg. Uma iphethini iphindaphindwa, kuyacaca ukuthi ukwenqatshwa kwe-Pivot 2 kwenzeka ngokobuchwepheshe maphakathi ne-Bearish Leg 3.
Ungabona futhi ukuthi lesi sakhiwo sokwenqatshwa kwe-Pivot esifanayo senzeka ngesikhathi se-previous 2022 Bear Cycle. Ukunqatshwa kwe-Pivot 2 kwenzeka futhi ngemva kokuthi i-1W MA200 (umugqa wethrendi obomvu-owolintshi) idlulwe, kwase kuthi ekugcineni kwaqala ukwehla okuya ku-Cycle Bottom ku-1W MA350 (umugqa wethrendi obomvu).

I-Ethereum (ETHUSD) ibe nokwenqatshwa okuqinile ku-**1M MA50** (i-blue trend-line) ngenyanga edlule, okuyindawo okuthi ngokomlando ikusize iqale ukulandelana kwezansi. Manje, intengo iyasokola ukuze ihlale ingaphezu kwe-**1M MA100** (i-green trend-line), okuyindawo ebiwukuhlukumeza kulo nyanga okokuqala ngqa emlandweni, futhi eyayisekela i-bottom ka-April 2025.
Oku akuhlukile ngoba i-ETH manje isingaphakathi kwe-**Bear Cycle**, kanti lezo ezimbili ezedlule zibe nokwehla okuphelele okungu-**-82.35%** kanye no-**-88.02%**. Njengoba izinga lokwehla ngaphakathi kuzo zonke i-Bear Cycle liyehla, kungenzeka ukuthi kulokhu kube bushelelezi kakhulu, ngoba ukwehla okungu-**-78%** kungabeka i-Cycle bottom ngqo ezansi kwe-Mayer Multiple Bands **3 SD** ngaphansi kwe-Zone (i-green Zone).

I-Bitcoin (BTCUSD) isiqophe ama-Cycle Lows ayo okugcina nje ngemva kokuphuka ngaphansi komugqa we-Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) (i-green trend-line). Uma i-BTC Bear Cycle yamanje nayo iseduze neminyaka engu-1 ubude njengaleyo eyandulela, khona-ke i-bottom kufanele ibekwe cishe ngeviki lo-October 05 2026.
Ngokusekelwe kumkhondo we-CVDD, imakethe bekufanele ngabe isifike okungenani ku-$48500 ngaleso sikhathi; kungenzeka ukuthi i-Cycle Bottom izobe iphansi kancane, kodwa lokho kuyizinga elincane ngokwezobuchwepheshe okufanele sibonakale kule modeli.

Ibhanki yaseJapan (BOJ) isandula ukunyusa i-Interest Rates nge-25 basis points, ihambelana noko bekulindelwe, yenza ukuba i-key rate ibe lelona liphezulu kwiminyaka engama-31. Ngoko oko kungqinelana njani ne-Bitcoin (BTCUSD)?
Yonke into. Kukho ubudlelwane obomeleleyo obungqinelanayo (inverse correlation) phakathi kokunyuka kwamazinga e-BOJ kunye ne-BTC. Kule minyaka mibini idlulileyo, uninzi lwayo lwalukwiBull Cycle, ngalo lonke ixesha iJapan inyusa amaqondo, i-BTC yehla kakhulu ukusuka kwi-High yaloo veki. Uluhlu lokwehla lubandakanya: -17.88%, -29.88%, -31.74% kwaye kutsha nje -33.91%. Zikumyalelo wexesha kwaye kuyathakazelisa ukuba izinga liyenyuka ngalo lonke ixesha.

I-Bitcoin (BTCUSD) ilandela uchungechunge olucacile kakhulu kuwo wonke ama-Bear Cycle bottoms ayo (okuhlanganisa nokuwa kwe-COVID ka-2020 phakathi ne-Cycle bottom). Kuko konke bottom, iya ku-EMA Zone ephansi kunaleyo ebikulandelayo ngaphambili.
Qala ngoJanuwari 2015, i-BTC yawela bottom ngaphakathi kwe-1W EMA200 (umugqa wethrendi owolintshi) - EMA300 (umugqa wethrendi omnyama) Zone. Ngasekupheleni kukaDisemba 2018 - Januwari 2019, kungenzeka ukuthi iphinde yawela bottom futhi ngaphakathi kwebanga le-EMA200-300 kodwa i-COVID flash crash bottom yangoMashi 2020 phakathi ne-Cycle yayibhalwe ngentengo ngaphakathi kwe-EMA300 - EMA400 (umugqa wethrendi obomvu) Zone. I-Bear Cycle elandelayo yawela bottom ngoNovemba - Disemba 2022 yehle futhi, ngaphakathi kwe-EMA400 - EMA500 (umugqa wethrendi ophuzi) Zone.

Tinamaan ng Bitcoin (BTCUSD) noong nakaraang linggo ang 1W MA200 nito (orange trend-line) sa unang pagkakataon mula noong linggo ng Oktubre 16 2023 at tila nakakita ito ng Support habang ngayong linggo ay nagko-consolidate ito sa ibabaw nito.
Ang pagtanggi na humantong sa 1W MA200 test na iyon ay naganap sa 5-year Pivot na nagsimula sa April 12 2021 High. Ito ay isang trend-line na may mataas na kahalagahan dahil hanggang ngayon ay nakapagbigay na ito ng 4 na pagtanggi (kabilang ang kasalukuyan) at dalawang rebound. Sa huling pagkakataon na nagkaroon tayo ng pagtanggi sa puntong iyon (Marso 11 2024), umabot ang BTC sa 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level mula sa puntong iyon, gaya rin ng ginawa nito noong nakaraang linggo.