With gasoline averaging $4 .192/gallon and crude oil trading above $100, inflation risks remain elevated. The latest PPI also came in hot at +0.4% MoM and +5.4% YoY, adding another warning signal.
Markets are currently pricing around a 70% probability of a 25bps Fed hike at the September 15–16 meeting.
The reaction could be aggressive.
🔥 Hot CPI: Higher yields + stronger dollar → pressure on stocks, crypto and potentially gold.
❄️ Cool CPI: Lower yields + weaker dollar → potential relief rally across risk assets.
Nonfarm payrolls came in stronger than expected, and now the market is turning its attention to CPI. This is where things get interesting.
A strong jobs report can give the Fed more room to keep rates higher for longer, but I don’t think one data point alone is enough to assume a rate hike. The real question is whether inflation is also showing renewed strength. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, the “higher for longer” narrative could strengthen and put pressure on risk assets, while gold could face short-term volatility as yields and the dollar react.
My bias right now is cautiously bearish for stocks if CPI surprises to the upside, but I would rather wait for the actual numbers than trade the headline.
For gold, I’m watching how price reacts to the CPI release and the following move in yields. A softer CPI could quickly shift the tone back toward rate-cut expectations.
No blind entries for me. Data first, confirmation second.
What’s your call — Fed hold or hike? Bullish or bearish?
Ang weekly chart ay nagpapahiwatig ng falling wedge, habang ang RSI ay nagpapakita ng posibleng bullish divergence. 👀
Pagkatapos ng mahabang panahon ng compression, posibleng naghahanda na ang SUI para sa isang makapangyarihang trend reversal. Ang nakumpirmang breakout mula sa wedge ay maaaring magbukas ng pinto sa seryosong paglawak pataas.
$RIF USDT keur nuna i trade mantengin bullish diteruskeun kuat saatos recovery agrésif ti handap panganyarna.
Para pembeli geus nyokot alih struktur jangka pondok, ngadorong harga ka arah puncak 0.07539. Momentum tetep positip, tapi pullback anu dikontrol balik ka dukungan bakal méré asupkeun long anu leuwih bersih.
EP 0.07410 – 0.07360
TP TP1 0.07540 TP2 0.07620 TP3 0.07700
SL 0.07290
Bagan némbongkeun parobahan anu jelas dina struktur pasar sanggeus RIF ngabentuk dasar deukeut 0.06961 jeung mimiti nulis higher highs kalawan displacement ka luhur anu kuat. Rally panganyarna geus nyerep tekanan jual anu aya di deukeutna sarta ngadorong asup ka puncak intraday saméméhna, nunjukkeun aliran pesenan bullish anu aktip. Tinimbang ngudag lonjakan ayeuna, kaunggulan anu leuwih hade nyaéta niténan pullback ka wewengkon 0.07410–0.07360, tempat résistansi saméméhna bisa berpotensi robah jadi demand. Lamun pembeli ngajaga zona ieu sarta momentum balik deui, likuiditas nu aya di luhur 0.07539 jadi target pangdeukeutna. Lamun aya break anu susten di luhur level éta, bisa micu kelanjutan salajengna ka target anu leuwih luhur. Set-up bakal leungit kakuatan lamun harga nembus handap 0.07290 jeung gagal balik deui ka zona demand.