$UNI just broke its head-and-shoulders neckline — down 11% to $5.25
Snapshot (Binance, 14 Nov, 19:26 PKT): $UNI $5.25, down 11.4% in 24h. Range $5.24-$5.96. Volume $37.2M. BTC $66,546, down 4.0%. Fear and Greed 13, Extreme Fear.
What happened: UNI closed 13 Nov at $5.747, down 5.4% — its 4th straight down close. It is down 16.6% in 7 days and 20.1% in 30 days (closes). The head-and-shoulders confirmed on 11 Nov with a close under the $6.255 neckline. After rallying 25% in 6 days to $7.82 on 4 Nov, it has now fallen 28% in 9 days to the $5.64 low. EMA20 $6.81, SMA50 $7.57, SMA200 $4.94 — price sits below the first two, above the 200-day. RSI 31.9.
Catalyst: no UNI-specific bad news. This is a broad selloff plus a technical breakdown. The background is actually mixed-positive: Uniswap v4 tokenized equity markets went live on Monad on 12 Nov, and over $20B in stock tokens have traded on the protocol. But v3 fee revenue fell over the past 7 days (CoinMarketCap), and $1.38M of UNI longs were liquidated in 24h, 83% of them longs.
Expectations — base-rate study, NOT a guarantee: UNI daily closes down 4% or more, symmetric plus/minus 4% barriers, 7-day window, 82 episodes since 2024: DOWN first 55%, UP first 38%, FLAT 7%. Only 41% were higher 7 days later. A stricter minus 8% check (N=35) is mixed — UP 34%, DOWN 29%, FLAT 37% — so the edge is real at 4% but fades at bigger moves. No UNI options market on Deribit, so no market-implied odds. Today's low $5.24 is already below the $5.517 down barrier intraday — the daily close decides.
Plan: do not chase, do not catch the knife blind. Dip-long only in the $4.94-$5.24 zone (200-day average), stop on a daily close under $4.94. Breakout-long only on a daily close above $5.977. Targets $5.977, then $6.255. Under $4.94 opens $4.50, then $4.00. Tiny size, spot only, no leverage. Confidence: Low.
#UNI #Uniswap #Crypto
Snapshot (Binance, 14 Nov, 19:26 PKT): $UNI $5.25, down 11.4% in 24h. Range $5.24-$5.96. Volume $37.2M. BTC $66,546, down 4.0%. Fear and Greed 13, Extreme Fear.
What happened: UNI closed 13 Nov at $5.747, down 5.4% — its 4th straight down close. It is down 16.6% in 7 days and 20.1% in 30 days (closes). The head-and-shoulders confirmed on 11 Nov with a close under the $6.255 neckline. After rallying 25% in 6 days to $7.82 on 4 Nov, it has now fallen 28% in 9 days to the $5.64 low. EMA20 $6.81, SMA50 $7.57, SMA200 $4.94 — price sits below the first two, above the 200-day. RSI 31.9.
Catalyst: no UNI-specific bad news. This is a broad selloff plus a technical breakdown. The background is actually mixed-positive: Uniswap v4 tokenized equity markets went live on Monad on 12 Nov, and over $20B in stock tokens have traded on the protocol. But v3 fee revenue fell over the past 7 days (CoinMarketCap), and $1.38M of UNI longs were liquidated in 24h, 83% of them longs.
Expectations — base-rate study, NOT a guarantee: UNI daily closes down 4% or more, symmetric plus/minus 4% barriers, 7-day window, 82 episodes since 2024: DOWN first 55%, UP first 38%, FLAT 7%. Only 41% were higher 7 days later. A stricter minus 8% check (N=35) is mixed — UP 34%, DOWN 29%, FLAT 37% — so the edge is real at 4% but fades at bigger moves. No UNI options market on Deribit, so no market-implied odds. Today's low $5.24 is already below the $5.517 down barrier intraday — the daily close decides.
Plan: do not chase, do not catch the knife blind. Dip-long only in the $4.94-$5.24 zone (200-day average), stop on a daily close under $4.94. Breakout-long only on a daily close above $5.977. Targets $5.977, then $6.255. Under $4.94 opens $4.50, then $4.00. Tiny size, spot only, no leverage. Confidence: Low.
#UNI #Uniswap #Crypto