๐จ FOMC RATE DECISION TODAY โ BUT THE REAL EVENT IS WARSH'S PRESS CONFERENCE.
The Fed's interest rate decision is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET.
Markets are pricing in a 91% probability of a rate pause, so the decision itself may not come as a surprise.
But at 2:30 PM ET, Kevin Warsh takes the stage.
That's where things could get interesting.
Since the last FOMC meeting, both CPI and PPI have moved higher, adding more pressure to an already complicated inflation outlook.
The Fed may hold rates today, but the bigger question is:
What does Warsh signal about the next move?
Here's what I'm watching:
๐ด Hawkish Warsh:
If he hints that further rate hikes are on the table, risk assets could face a sharp sell-off as markets reassess the outlook for liquidity and borrowing costs.
๐ข Dovish Warsh:
If he signals that the Fed is comfortable holding rates steady, Bitcoin could get some relief and potentially test the $82Kโ$82.5K zone.
โ ๏ธ No clear guidance:
Uncertainty could keep volatility elevated. The market may react sharply to even subtle changes in his tone.
The rate decision may already be priced in.
The real catalyst is what comes next.
Don't trade the headline alone. Watch the language, the reaction in bond yields, and how BTC responds around key levels.
One thing is certain: today's volatility could punish traders who enter without a plan.
#cryptoupdate2
$BTC
The Fed's interest rate decision is scheduled for 2:00 PM ET.
Markets are pricing in a 91% probability of a rate pause, so the decision itself may not come as a surprise.
But at 2:30 PM ET, Kevin Warsh takes the stage.
That's where things could get interesting.
Since the last FOMC meeting, both CPI and PPI have moved higher, adding more pressure to an already complicated inflation outlook.
The Fed may hold rates today, but the bigger question is:
What does Warsh signal about the next move?
Here's what I'm watching:
๐ด Hawkish Warsh:
If he hints that further rate hikes are on the table, risk assets could face a sharp sell-off as markets reassess the outlook for liquidity and borrowing costs.
๐ข Dovish Warsh:
If he signals that the Fed is comfortable holding rates steady, Bitcoin could get some relief and potentially test the $82Kโ$82.5K zone.
โ ๏ธ No clear guidance:
Uncertainty could keep volatility elevated. The market may react sharply to even subtle changes in his tone.
The rate decision may already be priced in.
The real catalyst is what comes next.
Don't trade the headline alone. Watch the language, the reaction in bond yields, and how BTC responds around key levels.
One thing is certain: today's volatility could punish traders who enter without a plan.
#cryptoupdate2
$BTC
