Most concerning chart today? $US10Y and 30-year yields.
Down 3% and 2% — not the real issue. Real issue: yields tanking while stocks pump. That's backwards.
Yields + stocks both dropping = classic recession signal. When bonds and equities sell off together, it's risk-off across the board. Right now we're seeing yields collapse but stocks rally off it — that's fragile.
Only plausible read: markets pricing in escalation risk (US-Iran) and front-running a Fed pivot if things blow up. If tensions cool, yields snap back fast and this rally fades.
2 weeks to midterms. Lot of noise incoming. Watch the 10Y close — if it holds under key support while stocks keep ripping, that divergence is a trap waiting to snap.
Down 3% and 2% — not the real issue. Real issue: yields tanking while stocks pump. That's backwards.
Yields + stocks both dropping = classic recession signal. When bonds and equities sell off together, it's risk-off across the board. Right now we're seeing yields collapse but stocks rally off it — that's fragile.
Only plausible read: markets pricing in escalation risk (US-Iran) and front-running a Fed pivot if things blow up. If tensions cool, yields snap back fast and this rally fades.
2 weeks to midterms. Lot of noise incoming. Watch the 10Y close — if it holds under key support while stocks keep ripping, that divergence is a trap waiting to snap.
