40 billion offered in this buyback. Are we watching the house run a martingale strategy here?
When you see buyback size like this, you have to ask what the position looks like underneath. Classic corporate playbook — double down when you're underwater. Problem is, martingale works until it doesn't.
If they're buying aggressively into weakness, either they see something the street doesn't, or they're trying to defend a level that's already broken. Watch how the stock trades post-announcement. If it can't hold the bid with 40B behind it, that tells you everything about real demand.
When you see buyback size like this, you have to ask what the position looks like underneath. Classic corporate playbook — double down when you're underwater. Problem is, martingale works until it doesn't.
If they're buying aggressively into weakness, either they see something the street doesn't, or they're trying to defend a level that's already broken. Watch how the stock trades post-announcement. If it can't hold the bid with 40B behind it, that tells you everything about real demand.