One year ago today, $BTC printed its all-time high: $126,080 on Oct 6, 2025. Today it's around $86K, about 32% below that peak and down roughly 30% over the year.
Timelines are full of "Uptober" posts right now. CoinGlass data shows Bitcoin has closed October up 18.7% on average since 2013, which projects to just under $100K. That's the bull case.
Here's the other data set. Bitcoin has now been rejected at $87K three times since Sept 23. Whales sold more than 30,000 BTC into the latest attempt. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.32%, near its highest since 2002.
And history on recoveries is sobering. After each of its last three peaks (2013, 2017, 2021), Bitcoin took 28 to 38 months to make a new all-time high. Getting back to $126K from here needs a 46% climb. A new record before late 2027 would be faster than any recovery on record.
An October average isn't a forecast; one good month can't undo a year-long drawdown on its own.
One year after the top, are you positioned for Uptober, or for a much longer wait?
#Bitcoin #Uptober
Timelines are full of "Uptober" posts right now. CoinGlass data shows Bitcoin has closed October up 18.7% on average since 2013, which projects to just under $100K. That's the bull case.
Here's the other data set. Bitcoin has now been rejected at $87K three times since Sept 23. Whales sold more than 30,000 BTC into the latest attempt. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.32%, near its highest since 2002.
And history on recoveries is sobering. After each of its last three peaks (2013, 2017, 2021), Bitcoin took 28 to 38 months to make a new all-time high. Getting back to $126K from here needs a 46% climb. A new record before late 2027 would be faster than any recovery on record.
An October average isn't a forecast; one good month can't undo a year-long drawdown on its own.
One year after the top, are you positioned for Uptober, or for a much longer wait?
#Bitcoin #Uptober
