Adam Jonas note Sunday Oct 5, stock popping Monday. $RLC $RAD $MOVR
*Morgan Stanley on $SPCX:*
*Call: "Cheap and getting cheaper" Overweight reiterated $300 PT = ∼89% upside from Fri $159 close Mon +5.5% to ∼$167-171 intraday, highs since July IPO June at $150, dipped to ∼$105, choppy $150 since Aug — Visible Alpha mean $281, consensus Strong Buy $235*
- *Math: Looks expensive on headline: ∼30x 2028 EV/EBIT vs ∼16x mega-cap AI peers but growth-adjusted 0.3x EV/EBIT/G vs peer median 0.5x = 40% discount even at $300 = 0.6x, in-line Amazon, below Meta/Google "one of cheaper ways to play space and intelligence economy" Jonas says interest "really, really quiet" lately = entry*
- *Breakdown: $127/share = launch + Starlink value, only $32/share = AI infra priced in — AI leasing $3.28B/month run-rate deals with Anthropic, Alphabet + undisclosed — 2.1GW this year → 6GW end 2027 — short-term pricing $30-50/watt — TD Cowen $200 PT also says AI leasing >50% rev by Q1 2027*
- *Catalysts Jonas flags: Starship Flight 15 late Oct — "few weeks to catch before Flight 15" — ship catch = biggest catalyst since IPO — Flight 14 Sep 28 deployed 26 sats then splash+explode, MS gave B+ — Q3 earnings late Oct — possible Grok releases — Elon teases renaming SpaceXAI → SpaceXSI after Trump's "Super Intelligence Force" push — 3 launches in 13h last week including Google Project Suncatcher orbital AI chip*
- *Bonus: SpaceX filing Sep 24 for 32.4-mile methane pipeline in Brevard County (Florida Gas Transmission) for Starship fuel + 8-mile Starpipe at Starbase for Jan service talks with TSMC for chip plant for Tesla/SpaceX/xAI*
Not just launch revenue thesis is AI compute leasing.
*BREAKING 🚨 Morgan Stanley Adam Jonas: $SPCX "cheap and getting cheaper" 🚀 Keeps Overweight $300 PT (∼90% upside) — says 30x 2028 EV/EBIT looks pricey but 0.3x growth-adjusted = 40% below AI peers — $127 = space/Starlink, $32 = AI priced — +5.5% Mon to $167 catalysts Flight 15 late Oct ship catch + Q3 earnings $2.16T mkt cap ⚡*
*Morgan Stanley on $SPCX:*
*Call: "Cheap and getting cheaper" Overweight reiterated $300 PT = ∼89% upside from Fri $159 close Mon +5.5% to ∼$167-171 intraday, highs since July IPO June at $150, dipped to ∼$105, choppy $150 since Aug — Visible Alpha mean $281, consensus Strong Buy $235*
- *Math: Looks expensive on headline: ∼30x 2028 EV/EBIT vs ∼16x mega-cap AI peers but growth-adjusted 0.3x EV/EBIT/G vs peer median 0.5x = 40% discount even at $300 = 0.6x, in-line Amazon, below Meta/Google "one of cheaper ways to play space and intelligence economy" Jonas says interest "really, really quiet" lately = entry*
- *Breakdown: $127/share = launch + Starlink value, only $32/share = AI infra priced in — AI leasing $3.28B/month run-rate deals with Anthropic, Alphabet + undisclosed — 2.1GW this year → 6GW end 2027 — short-term pricing $30-50/watt — TD Cowen $200 PT also says AI leasing >50% rev by Q1 2027*
- *Catalysts Jonas flags: Starship Flight 15 late Oct — "few weeks to catch before Flight 15" — ship catch = biggest catalyst since IPO — Flight 14 Sep 28 deployed 26 sats then splash+explode, MS gave B+ — Q3 earnings late Oct — possible Grok releases — Elon teases renaming SpaceXAI → SpaceXSI after Trump's "Super Intelligence Force" push — 3 launches in 13h last week including Google Project Suncatcher orbital AI chip*
- *Bonus: SpaceX filing Sep 24 for 32.4-mile methane pipeline in Brevard County (Florida Gas Transmission) for Starship fuel + 8-mile Starpipe at Starbase for Jan service talks with TSMC for chip plant for Tesla/SpaceX/xAI*
Not just launch revenue thesis is AI compute leasing.
*BREAKING 🚨 Morgan Stanley Adam Jonas: $SPCX "cheap and getting cheaper" 🚀 Keeps Overweight $300 PT (∼90% upside) — says 30x 2028 EV/EBIT looks pricey but 0.3x growth-adjusted = 40% below AI peers — $127 = space/Starlink, $32 = AI priced — +5.5% Mon to $167 catalysts Flight 15 late Oct ship catch + Q3 earnings $2.16T mkt cap ⚡*
