๐๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ซ๐ข๐ฌ๐ก, ๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฌ:
$XAU is trading around 4,163 after pushing into 4,226 and getting rejected. The latest completed 4H candle closed near its low, back below both the 20 and 50 EMAs.
That matters, fam.... because the daily structure still shows lower highs. September 28 broke the 4,244โ4,270 support zone, and this recovery hasnโt reclaimed it.
Iโm watching 4,190โ4,206 as the first resistance area, then 4,220โ4,240. A bounce into those zones needs a strong close and a successful retest before I give buyers more credit.
Below price, 4,145โ4,160 is immediate support. Lose that on sustained 4H closes and 4,116โ4,133 comes back into focus. A confirmed break of that base opens room toward the older 4,075โ4,095 reaction area.
๐๐๐ ๐ฅ๐ค๐จ๐๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐ ๐๐๐๐จ ๐จ๐ค๐ข๐ ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐ญ๐ฉ.
During September 28โs sell-off, price fell roughly 3.1% while open interest increased around 58%. The recovery that followed came with declining OI. Latest matched readings show OI down roughly 12% over 24 hours.
Thatโs consistent with short covering contributing to the bounce. OI alone doesnโt prove direction, but this recovery hasnโt shown convincing fresh participation yet.
Funding is mildly positive at roughly +0.0042% per 4 hours, meaning longs are paying shorts. It has cooled considerably from the sell-off.
My bias stays bearish below 4,220โ4,240. Iโd reassess on a clean reclaim, a held retest and OI rebuilding alongside price.
At 4,163, price is already close to support. Iโm watching how it reacts at the zones before committing capital.
$XAU is trading around 4,163 after pushing into 4,226 and getting rejected. The latest completed 4H candle closed near its low, back below both the 20 and 50 EMAs.
That matters, fam.... because the daily structure still shows lower highs. September 28 broke the 4,244โ4,270 support zone, and this recovery hasnโt reclaimed it.
Iโm watching 4,190โ4,206 as the first resistance area, then 4,220โ4,240. A bounce into those zones needs a strong close and a successful retest before I give buyers more credit.
Below price, 4,145โ4,160 is immediate support. Lose that on sustained 4H closes and 4,116โ4,133 comes back into focus. A confirmed break of that base opens room toward the older 4,075โ4,095 reaction area.
๐๐๐ ๐ฅ๐ค๐จ๐๐ฉ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐๐ฃ๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐ ๐๐๐๐จ ๐จ๐ค๐ข๐ ๐๐ค๐ฃ๐ฉ๐๐ญ๐ฉ.
During September 28โs sell-off, price fell roughly 3.1% while open interest increased around 58%. The recovery that followed came with declining OI. Latest matched readings show OI down roughly 12% over 24 hours.
Thatโs consistent with short covering contributing to the bounce. OI alone doesnโt prove direction, but this recovery hasnโt shown convincing fresh participation yet.
Funding is mildly positive at roughly +0.0042% per 4 hours, meaning longs are paying shorts. It has cooled considerably from the sell-off.
My bias stays bearish below 4,220โ4,240. Iโd reassess on a clean reclaim, a held retest and OI rebuilding alongside price.
At 4,163, price is already close to support. Iโm watching how it reacts at the zones before committing capital.
