๐ Bitcoin Just Did Something Bear Markets Never Do
Three green months in a row.
July: +7.36%
August: +24.95%
September: +10.15% (so far)
Now look at the last three bear years on the chart. 2014, 2018, 2022.
Not one of them strung together three straight green months. The best they managed was two before the floor gave out again.
And September is the kicker. ๐
Historically it is Bitcoin's worst month, with an average of -2.14% and a median of -2.44%. This year it is running double digits green. A market fighting its own seasonality is a market with real demand behind it.
So is this the bull market?
Slow down one step. September has not closed yet, and a week of red candles can still erase the streak. 2026 also opened brutal: January -10%, February -15%, June -20%. One strong quarter does not delete that damage, it starts repairing it.
What history does say is that Q4 is usually where Bitcoin does its heavy lifting. October carries a median of +14.71%. November's +41% average looks wild, but a single 2013 month (+449%) inflates it, so the +8.81% median is the fairer read.
The setup is strong. The confirmation is the monthly close.
Close September green and the streak becomes a real signal.
Lose the month and it goes back to being a bounce.
Streak confirmed, or September's curse strikes late? ๐ฅ
Not financial advice.
$BTC
$BNB
$ETH
Three green months in a row.
July: +7.36%
August: +24.95%
September: +10.15% (so far)
Now look at the last three bear years on the chart. 2014, 2018, 2022.
Not one of them strung together three straight green months. The best they managed was two before the floor gave out again.
And September is the kicker. ๐
Historically it is Bitcoin's worst month, with an average of -2.14% and a median of -2.44%. This year it is running double digits green. A market fighting its own seasonality is a market with real demand behind it.
So is this the bull market?
Slow down one step. September has not closed yet, and a week of red candles can still erase the streak. 2026 also opened brutal: January -10%, February -15%, June -20%. One strong quarter does not delete that damage, it starts repairing it.
What history does say is that Q4 is usually where Bitcoin does its heavy lifting. October carries a median of +14.71%. November's +41% average looks wild, but a single 2013 month (+449%) inflates it, so the +8.81% median is the fairer read.
The setup is strong. The confirmation is the monthly close.
Close September green and the streak becomes a real signal.
Lose the month and it goes back to being a bounce.
Streak confirmed, or September's curse strikes late? ๐ฅ
Not financial advice.
$BTC
$BNB
$ETH
