Bitcoin Cleared a Major September Hurdle
On September 16, the Federal Reserve lifted rates by 25 basis points, pushing the target to 3.75% to 4.00%. This was the first rate increase from the Fed since 2023.
In normal conditions, this type of decision creates heavy pressure on risk assets.
That did not happen this time.
On September 17, Bitcoin was still holding near the high 70k range, which shows the market had already priced in the Fed move before it happened.
So if this rate hike was not enough to break Bitcoin, the real question is what could.
The Next Hike May Matter More
The September move might not be the last one.
The Fed's latest outlook points to a median rate of 4.1% by the end of 2026, and 16 out of 18 officials see at least one more 25 bps hike this year.
That is important because everyone was ready for September.
A second hike could hit harder if the market is not positioned for it.
Crypto does not just move on rate hikes or cuts. It moves on the gap between what was expected and what actually happens.
If investors start to believe tight policy will last much longer, Bitcoin could come under more stress.
Inflation Remains the Core Issue
The Fed did not hike without a reason.
Its September forecast sees PCE inflation at 3.7% and core PCE at 3.4% in 2026, both still far above the 2% target.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve lifted rates by 25 basis points, pushing the target to 3.75% to 4.00%. This was the first rate increase from the Fed since 2023.
In normal conditions, this type of decision creates heavy pressure on risk assets.
That did not happen this time.
On September 17, Bitcoin was still holding near the high 70k range, which shows the market had already priced in the Fed move before it happened.
So if this rate hike was not enough to break Bitcoin, the real question is what could.
The Next Hike May Matter More
The September move might not be the last one.
The Fed's latest outlook points to a median rate of 4.1% by the end of 2026, and 16 out of 18 officials see at least one more 25 bps hike this year.
That is important because everyone was ready for September.
A second hike could hit harder if the market is not positioned for it.
Crypto does not just move on rate hikes or cuts. It moves on the gap between what was expected and what actually happens.
If investors start to believe tight policy will last much longer, Bitcoin could come under more stress.
Inflation Remains the Core Issue
The Fed did not hike without a reason.
Its September forecast sees PCE inflation at 3.7% and core PCE at 3.4% in 2026, both still far above the 2% target.