The Fed hiked 25bp, taking rates to 3.75–4.00%. That part was expected. The bigger question is what comes next.
Warsh’s press conference lasted around 30 minutes—the shortest since regular pressers began in 2011. He called the move “removing a dose of accommodation,” without giving a clear signal about the next decision. As he spoke, the 2-year Treasury yield hit a two-year high. That’s the market listening for what this means beyond today’s hike.
The dot plot is where it gets interesting. Think of it as 18 policymakers marking where they think rates could go. The year-end median is now 4.1%, up from June’s 3.8%; 16 of 18 see at least one more hike this year. That doesn’t guarantee another hike, but it does mean the Fed isn’t signalling that the job is done.
For BTC, I’m watching the 2-year yield, the dollar, and whether the first 30-minute candle gets taken back. If yields and the dollar keep climbing, that could add pressure. If they turn down, the first move may not hold. The hike was widely expected, and some selling may already have happened before the decision—so chasing the first sharp drop is risky.
Check the BTC chart: $BTC 👇
Gold’s reaction was sharp too. It pushed toward 4,368, then sold off hard to around 4,260–4,270 before bouncing near 4,298. That’s a much bigger move than a quick dip—and the bounce still has to prove it can hold.
Check the gold chart: $XAU 👇
For TLT, rising Treasury yields are the risk: when yields rise, existing bond prices generally fall. Keep that relationship in mind while watching the chart.
Check the TLT chart: $TLT.ETF 👇
Shared for market information only, not investment advice. Markets carry risk — trade carefully. DYOR
Warsh’s press conference lasted around 30 minutes—the shortest since regular pressers began in 2011. He called the move “removing a dose of accommodation,” without giving a clear signal about the next decision. As he spoke, the 2-year Treasury yield hit a two-year high. That’s the market listening for what this means beyond today’s hike.
The dot plot is where it gets interesting. Think of it as 18 policymakers marking where they think rates could go. The year-end median is now 4.1%, up from June’s 3.8%; 16 of 18 see at least one more hike this year. That doesn’t guarantee another hike, but it does mean the Fed isn’t signalling that the job is done.
For BTC, I’m watching the 2-year yield, the dollar, and whether the first 30-minute candle gets taken back. If yields and the dollar keep climbing, that could add pressure. If they turn down, the first move may not hold. The hike was widely expected, and some selling may already have happened before the decision—so chasing the first sharp drop is risky.
Check the BTC chart: $BTC 👇
Gold’s reaction was sharp too. It pushed toward 4,368, then sold off hard to around 4,260–4,270 before bouncing near 4,298. That’s a much bigger move than a quick dip—and the bounce still has to prove it can hold.
Check the gold chart: $XAU 👇
For TLT, rising Treasury yields are the risk: when yields rise, existing bond prices generally fall. Keep that relationship in mind while watching the chart.
Check the TLT chart: $TLT.ETF 👇
Shared for market information only, not investment advice. Markets carry risk — trade carefully. DYOR
