Isebe Lezohwebo lase-US lisanda kukhipha idatha ebalulekile yezinkomba eziyinhloko zomnotho ka-Agasti. Imininingwane yokuthengisa ngenyanga (retail sales) inyuke ngo-1.2%, idlula kakhulu okulindelwe yimakethe okungu-0.8%; inani langaphambilini liphinde lilungiswa lisuka ku--0.60% laya ku--0.5%. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, inkomba yamanani okungenisa (import price index) ka-Agasti yenyuke ngo-0.7% ngenyanga, idlula okulindelwe okungu-0.4%. Lolu chungechunge lwezibalo ezinkulu lube seluhlinzeka ngesiqondiso esisha sezisekelo zezimakethe endaweni yohwebo yamamakro esengavamile futhi eyinkimbinkimbi.
Uma sibheka uhlobo lwedatha, ukusebenza okuqinile kokuthengisa ngqo kuyabhidliza ukukhathazeka okwakukhona emakethe mayelana nomnotho oqinisa “ukwehla okukhulu” (hard landing). Nakuba ukunyuka kwamanani entengo ekungeniseni kukhulisa ingcindezi encane yokwehla kwezintengo (marginal inflation pressure), ubuthakathaka obubonisiwe ohlangothini lokusetshenziswa (consumer side) obudlula okulindele kubonisa ukuthi izisekelo zomnotho wase-US zisemi kahle. Lokhu kusho ukuthi umnotho awuwohloki ngokushesha njengoba kwakusaba ekubikezelweni okudabukisayo; ngalokho, kunikeza ingqondo eqinile yokusekelwa phansi (bottom support) yempahla enobungozi (risk assets).
Emakethe yezimali yendabuko, idatha yokusetshenziswa eqinile isize i-dollar index ukuthi ibuyele phezulu isivivinye ukumelana ngenhla, kanti ijika lemali yokuboleka (U.S. Treasury yields) liyashintsha liye phezulu. Kodwa ngokombono wokuhweba kwabaholi (bulls), ukuqina komnotho kusho ukuthi indlela yokwehla okuthambile (soft landing) noma ngisho nokungabikho kokwehla (no landing) iyaqhubeka nokucaca. Ukuthanda ingozi (risk appetite) akukacindezelwa kakhulu ngokweqiniso; ngemuva kokuthi i-S&P/izimakethe ziqede ukuphazamiseka kwezibikezelo zenzalo, izimo zobuchwepheshe (technicals) zisenezisusa zokuqhubeka nokuhlaba phezulu.
Mayelana nemakethe ye-crypto, lapho ukungaqiniseki kwama-macro sekugxilile, ngokuvamile kuhambisana nokuphinde kulungiswe izibikezelo zokunikezwa kwemali (liquidity expectations). Ngesekelo esivela ku-fundamentals, umuzwa wokuzivikela (hedging/avoidance) uyathamba, futhi imali yezingozi (risk capital) kulindeleke ukuthi ibuyele ngokushesha kuma-asset ane-beta ephezulu. $BTC iveze amandla amakhulu okwamukela ukuthenga (buy-side absorption) endaweni yokusekela ebalulekile. Uma uhlelo lwansuku zonke (daily) luqina futhi lubheka ukugqashuka phezulu endaweni yokuhlala (consolidation range) ngokwanda kwevolumu, kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi ikusasa libone umjikelezo omusha wokukhuphuka okushayelwa ukuvumelana phakathi kwemizwa (sentiment) nobuchwepheshe (technical).
#RetailSales #MacroEconomy #CryptoTrading
Uma sibheka uhlobo lwedatha, ukusebenza okuqinile kokuthengisa ngqo kuyabhidliza ukukhathazeka okwakukhona emakethe mayelana nomnotho oqinisa “ukwehla okukhulu” (hard landing). Nakuba ukunyuka kwamanani entengo ekungeniseni kukhulisa ingcindezi encane yokwehla kwezintengo (marginal inflation pressure), ubuthakathaka obubonisiwe ohlangothini lokusetshenziswa (consumer side) obudlula okulindele kubonisa ukuthi izisekelo zomnotho wase-US zisemi kahle. Lokhu kusho ukuthi umnotho awuwohloki ngokushesha njengoba kwakusaba ekubikezelweni okudabukisayo; ngalokho, kunikeza ingqondo eqinile yokusekelwa phansi (bottom support) yempahla enobungozi (risk assets).
Emakethe yezimali yendabuko, idatha yokusetshenziswa eqinile isize i-dollar index ukuthi ibuyele phezulu isivivinye ukumelana ngenhla, kanti ijika lemali yokuboleka (U.S. Treasury yields) liyashintsha liye phezulu. Kodwa ngokombono wokuhweba kwabaholi (bulls), ukuqina komnotho kusho ukuthi indlela yokwehla okuthambile (soft landing) noma ngisho nokungabikho kokwehla (no landing) iyaqhubeka nokucaca. Ukuthanda ingozi (risk appetite) akukacindezelwa kakhulu ngokweqiniso; ngemuva kokuthi i-S&P/izimakethe ziqede ukuphazamiseka kwezibikezelo zenzalo, izimo zobuchwepheshe (technicals) zisenezisusa zokuqhubeka nokuhlaba phezulu.
Mayelana nemakethe ye-crypto, lapho ukungaqiniseki kwama-macro sekugxilile, ngokuvamile kuhambisana nokuphinde kulungiswe izibikezelo zokunikezwa kwemali (liquidity expectations). Ngesekelo esivela ku-fundamentals, umuzwa wokuzivikela (hedging/avoidance) uyathamba, futhi imali yezingozi (risk capital) kulindeleke ukuthi ibuyele ngokushesha kuma-asset ane-beta ephezulu. $BTC iveze amandla amakhulu okwamukela ukuthenga (buy-side absorption) endaweni yokusekela ebalulekile. Uma uhlelo lwansuku zonke (daily) luqina futhi lubheka ukugqashuka phezulu endaweni yokuhlala (consolidation range) ngokwanda kwevolumu, kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi ikusasa libone umjikelezo omusha wokukhuphuka okushayelwa ukuvumelana phakathi kwemizwa (sentiment) nobuchwepheshe (technical).
#RetailSales #MacroEconomy #CryptoTrading