Ang mga merkado ng crypto ay papasok sa isang mahalagang linggo para sa macro.
Ang pagtaas ng rate noong Setyembre ay halos naka-presyo na ngayon, ngunit ang mas malaking tanong para sa mga asset na may panganib ay hindi na lang kung ano ang gagawin ng Fed.
Ang mas malaking tanong ay:
Mananatili ba ang langis sa itaas ng $100?
Brent crude ua paglipas sa $100 ay nagitulak sa mga inaasahan sa inflation at sa long-term bond yields na mas mataas. Sa parehong panahon, humina ang daloy ng crypto, bumaba ang leverage, at ang mga options ay nagpapakita ng mas nagtatanggol na istruktura ng merkado.
Hindi ibig sabihin nito na nagsimula na ang isang pangunahing bearish trend.
Nws zoo li yog defensive consolidation nrog volatility nce maj mam.
■ 1. Roj tau los ua Macro Variable loj dua
Cov ntaub ntawv payroll muaj zog tau thawb kev cia siab rau kev tswj nyiaj txhav dua siab dua, thaum kev nruj kev sib tw cheeb tsam (geopolitical tensions) nyob ib ncig Strait of Hormuz thawb Brent kom dhau $100.
Qhov kev sib xyaw no tseem ceeb vim tias zog (energy) uas kim tuaj yeem ua kom inflation nyob siab.
US 10Y yield txav saum 4.8% ntxiv ib txheej siab. Yields siab feem ntau ua rau cov cuab tam risk (risk assets) tsis nyiam dua vim cov investors tau txais nyiaj rov qab zoo dua los ntawm cov cuab tam uas ruaj dua.
Tab sis muaj ib qhov txawv tseem ceeb:
Kev nce tus nqi (rate hike) lub Cuaj Hli no twb tau priced rau lawm feem ntau.
Yog li lwm qhov hike nws tus kheej tej zaum yuav tsis tsim kom muaj kev poob siab loj.
Qhov kev pheej hmoo loj dua yog roj tseem nyob saum $100 rau ib lub sijhawm ntev.
Yog Brent thim rov qab, kev cia siab inflation yuav yooj yim dua thiab kev siab rau yields yuav poob.
Qhov ntawd yuav tsim ib puag ncig txhawb ntau dua rau BTC thiab lwm cov risk assets.
■ 2. Crypto Flows tab tom poob momentum
Ib qho ntawm kev hloov tshiab uas txaus siab tshaj lub lim tiam no yog qhov tsis muaj zog tib lub sijhawm hauv ob txoj kev liquidity channel tseem ceeb:
• Spot ETF flows tig mus negative.
• Stablecoin net issuance kuj tau txav mus rau qhov negative.
Tag nrho outflow ua ke yog me me heev, tsawg dua $500M, tab sis cov kev coj (direction) tseem ceeb.
Tau ntau lub lim tiam, kev thov ETF tau muab marginal bid rau Bitcoin.
Thaum qhov bid ntawd ploj mus, tus nqi yuav tsum cia siab ntau dua rau qhov kev tso (position) twb muaj lawm.
Qhov no pab piav tias vim li cas BTC nyuaj nrhiav tau kev txav upside muaj zog.
■ 3. Leverage tab tom tawm ntawm kev lag luam
Open interest kuj poob.
BTC market capitalization tau poob kwv yees 2.2% ntawm hnub Friday dhau los, thaum USD-denominated OI poob kwv yees 3.2%.
Qhov ratio OI/market-cap txav mus rau 0.034, qis dua qib nruab nrab ntawm nruab nrab-August uas nyob ib ncig 0.038.
Hauv lus yooj yim:
Cov traders tab tom txo leverage.
Qhov no tsis tau txhais tias yuav bearish cia li.
Qhov tseeb, kev deleveraging kuj muaj ib sab uas zoo.
Thaum leverage ntau dhau tso tawm ntawm kev lag luam, qhov yuav tshwm sim ntawm lwm qhov kev liquidation cascade loj yuav txo tau.
Tej teeb meem yog tias leverage tawm ntawm kev lag luam kuj txhais tias tam sim no muaj peev uas tsis tshua aggressive tab tom thawb kom tus nqi nce lawm.
Yog li kev lag luam ua ntsiag to dua, tab sis kuj yuav rhiab dua rau catalyst macro tom ntej.
■ 4. Options tab tom hais tias “Ceev faj”
Bitcoin volatility tau pib nce.
DVOL txav ntawm ib ncig 38 mus txog kwv yees 40.2 thaum BTC tseem nyob nruab nrab (range-bound) tsis tshua hloov.
Ua ke no tsim nyog yuav saib.
Feem ntau, tus nqi ruaj khov nrog implied volatility nce qhia tias cov traders tab tom them ntau dua rau kev tiv thaiv kev txav loj yav tom ntej.
Sab put ntawm options market tseem tau rov nqi (repriced) nrawm dua li sab call.
Txawm li ntawd los, 25D risk reversals tseem nyob ze rau neutral.
Yog li qhov no tsis yog pov thawj muaj zog tias yuav muaj kev poob tawg sai sai.
Nws zoo dua los txhais tias:
Kev lag luam tab tom dhau los ua defensive dua thiab tab tom npaj rau kev txav loj dua.
■ 5. Vim li cas BTC tsis tau poob tawg
Txawm tias muaj kev siab macro, BTC tsis tau ntsib ib qho kev luv discount loj ntxiv.
BTC qhov poob 2-seem (two-week) tau taug raws equities dav dav.
Qhov ntawd tseem ceeb.
Yog BTC tab tom tawg sai dua li cov cuab tam risk ib txwm, ces nws yuav qhia tias muaj kev ntxhov siab tshwj xeeb rau crypto.
Hloov chaw, tus cwj pwm tam sim no zoo li yog ib puag ncig risk-off coj los ntawm macro ntau dua.
Tus neeg yuav khoom marginal tau rov qab los.
Leverage twb tau raug txo lawm.
Kev muag yuam (forced selling) zoo li tsawg me ntsis xwb.
Thiab tseem tsis tau muaj kev xav tau (demand) tshiab txaus los tsim kom tau kev breakout upside muaj zog.
Vim li ntawd kuv thiaj piav tias tus qauv tam sim no yog:
Defensive consolidation, tseem tsis tau lees tias yog kev thim rov trend uas tau lees paub.
■ 6. Qhov Txaus Siab: Alts tab tom ua tau zoo dua BTC
Muaj ib qho kev hloov uas tsis txwm tshwm sim nyob hauv qab qhov BTC tsis muaj zog.
BTC poob kwv yees 1.7% thoob lub lim tiam, thaum TOTAL3 nce kwv yees 1.3%.
BTC dominance kuj tau poob ib ncig 0.7 percentage points.
Tias yog vim li cas peev tau tig mus rau altcoins txawm tias Bitcoin tseem muaj kev ntxhov siab.
Qhov kev teem sijhawm (sequencing) no tshwj xeeb heev.
Thaum BTC tsis muaj zog, TOTAL3 tseem qhia relative strength.
Qhov ntawd qhia rau peb tias alt market tseem tsis tau ploj tag nrho kev xav pheej hmoo (risk appetite).
Tab sis muaj ib qho xwm txheej tseem ceeb.
BTC باید nyob qhov kev sib sau (consolidation) tus qauv.
Yog tias BTC tseem ruaj khov, BTC dominance yuav txuas ntxiv txav mus rau kev txhawb ib ncig 58, tej zaum muab alts ntxiv qhov chaw kom ua tau zoo dua.
■ 7. CPI yog Qhov Rooj Qhov Rooj Tom Ntej Loj
Nov yog qhov uas txhua yam los sib koom ua ke.
CPI mos dua qhov uas xav tau tuaj yeem txo kev siab rau Treasury yields thiab kev cia siab txog tus nqi (rate expectations).
Qhov ntawd yuav txhawb BTC, ua kom BTC dominance tsis muaj zog, thiab cia altcoin resilience tam sim no txuas ntxiv.
Tab sis CPI uas kub dua ua kom muaj qhov setup rov qab.
Kev cia siab inflation siab dua tuaj yeem thawb yields kom nce dua.
Yog BTC tib lub sijhawm poob nws qhov kev txhawb consolidation tseem ceeb, qhov kev ruaj (resilience) ntawm altcoins tam sim no yuav ploj sai.
Yog li kuv yuav saib qhov kev teb (reaction) dua li tsuas yog CPI tus lej xwb.
Soft CPI + BTC tuav kev txhawb = muaj txiaj ntsig
CPI kub + BTC tawg kev txhawb = tiv thaiv/kev pheej hmoo qis (defensive/risk-off)
■ Kuv qhov Market Take
Txhua yam zoo li tsis yog ib puag ncig uas bullish breakout tau meej meej.
Tab sis tseem tsis tau zoo li yog ib qho kev thim rov bearish loj uas tau lees paub.
Cov variable tseem ceeb yog:
■ Roj: Puas yog Brent tseem nyob saum $100?
■ Yields: Puas yog US 10Y tseem nce ntxiv saum 4.8%?
■ Flows: Puas yog ETF thiab stablecoin outflows tseem txuas ntxiv?
■ Leverage: Puas yog OI tseem poob mus?
■ BTC: Puas yog tus nqi tuav tau nws qhov consolidation range?
■ BTC.D: Puas dominance tseem yuav poob tau?
■ CPI: Puas yog inflation muab kev cawm lossis ntxiv ib txheej siab ntxiv?
Rau kuv, roj (oil) tam sim no yog tus macro variable uas yuav saib ua ntej, thaum CPI yog tus catalyst tam sim.
Yog roj thim thiab CPI tawm los soft, kev lag luam yuav hloov tau sai ntawm defensive consolidation mus rau risk-on positioning.
Yog tias roj nyob saum $100 thiab CPI kub, qhov siab rau yields thiab crypto yuav nce tau.
Txog thaum qhov kev lees paub ntawd tuaj, txoj kev huv tshaj yog ua raws range, zam leverage ntau dhau thiab cia tus nqi txav los lees paub txoj kev tom ntej.
#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #CPI #ArifAlpha
