Gold enters the Asian session on the back of a clean break lower. On H4 a bearish BOS has cut through weekly support at 4445.39, flipping both 4445.39 and 4367.8 into fresh resistance, and price now hangs below both. The daily bias leans down, extending the weekly read.
On the macro side, the session plan is working from the argument that rates and the dollar are in the driver seat: DXY near 99.74, US10Y around its highest since early 2025, and the odds of a 25bp September Fed hike repriced to 66-68%. Gold is falling even as oil climbs on Middle East tension, which says flows are listening to yields, not the haven bid. One caveat matters: daily and H4 RSI sit at extreme oversold, the kind of reading that often precedes a 1-2 session counter-trend bounce. So this is a with-trend day that still has to respect the pullback.
Regime: strongly trending. ADX 62.5 on D1, 74.9 on H4, with -DI dominant across timeframes. Liquidity: fresh BSL sits above at 4396.42 and 4472.51, untaken; below, the 4322.76 low is partly swept, then the 4300 round and the deeper 4225 SSL cluster. Priority draw is 4225 if momentum persists, or 4396.42 as the near magnet on any bounce.
Today carries 3 ideas on watch across Asia and London: one on the buy side, two on the sell side. That is the number of scenarios we track, not orders that will fire — most days only one or two zones get touched. The sells are with-trend into premium resistance above; the buy is a lighter counter-trend bounce at deep demand.
SESSION NEWS (UTC):
- 12:15 ADP Employment (USD, medium-high) — lands just after the session closes; threatens any sell left open past it.
- 13:45 BOC rate and 14:30 press conference (CAD, high) — post-session, moves DXY indirectly.
- 12:30 on 04/09 US NFP (very high) — the week biggest risk, not in this session but on the radar.
All three sit after 12:00 UTC, so the morning plan closes pending orders before they print.
Entry, stop and target are not printed here.
#XAUUSD #GOLD #TRADE
On the macro side, the session plan is working from the argument that rates and the dollar are in the driver seat: DXY near 99.74, US10Y around its highest since early 2025, and the odds of a 25bp September Fed hike repriced to 66-68%. Gold is falling even as oil climbs on Middle East tension, which says flows are listening to yields, not the haven bid. One caveat matters: daily and H4 RSI sit at extreme oversold, the kind of reading that often precedes a 1-2 session counter-trend bounce. So this is a with-trend day that still has to respect the pullback.
Regime: strongly trending. ADX 62.5 on D1, 74.9 on H4, with -DI dominant across timeframes. Liquidity: fresh BSL sits above at 4396.42 and 4472.51, untaken; below, the 4322.76 low is partly swept, then the 4300 round and the deeper 4225 SSL cluster. Priority draw is 4225 if momentum persists, or 4396.42 as the near magnet on any bounce.
Today carries 3 ideas on watch across Asia and London: one on the buy side, two on the sell side. That is the number of scenarios we track, not orders that will fire — most days only one or two zones get touched. The sells are with-trend into premium resistance above; the buy is a lighter counter-trend bounce at deep demand.
SESSION NEWS (UTC):
- 12:15 ADP Employment (USD, medium-high) — lands just after the session closes; threatens any sell left open past it.
- 13:45 BOC rate and 14:30 press conference (CAD, high) — post-session, moves DXY indirectly.
- 12:30 on 04/09 US NFP (very high) — the week biggest risk, not in this session but on the radar.
All three sit after 12:00 UTC, so the morning plan closes pending orders before they print.
Entry, stop and target are not printed here.
#XAUUSD #GOLD #TRADE
