$BTC 31k$ -27k$ expected bottom range.
I’ve now added the overall percentage correction from each bear-market cycle top to its eventual bottom to the chart.
An interesting pattern becomes visible:
-93% → -86% → -83% → -77% → Current cycle: ~-74%?
The total magnitude of Bitcoin’s corrections has been decreasing with each cycle.
Why can we consider this historical pattern relevant again?
Because Bitcoin has already shown that it is following the same relief-rally structure seen in previous bear markets. In previous cycles, these structures were eventually followed by major bearish continuation.
That major bearish continuation has not happened yet in the current cycle — it is what I’m expecting based on the historical structure.
There is no fixed number for how much the total correction decreases from one cycle to the next, but historically we’ve seen reductions of roughly 3–5 percentage points.
If the current cycle follows a similar progression, the total correction could potentially be another 3–5 percentage points smaller than the previous cycle, putting the current cycle around ~74%.
A ~74% total correction would point toward the $31K area.
However, we don’t know the exact percentage in advance, so rather than focusing on one precise target, I’ll be watching $31K–$27K as the broader potential bottom zone for this cycle.
I’ve now added the overall percentage correction from each bear-market cycle top to its eventual bottom to the chart.
An interesting pattern becomes visible:
-93% → -86% → -83% → -77% → Current cycle: ~-74%?
The total magnitude of Bitcoin’s corrections has been decreasing with each cycle.
Why can we consider this historical pattern relevant again?
Because Bitcoin has already shown that it is following the same relief-rally structure seen in previous bear markets. In previous cycles, these structures were eventually followed by major bearish continuation.
That major bearish continuation has not happened yet in the current cycle — it is what I’m expecting based on the historical structure.
There is no fixed number for how much the total correction decreases from one cycle to the next, but historically we’ve seen reductions of roughly 3–5 percentage points.
If the current cycle follows a similar progression, the total correction could potentially be another 3–5 percentage points smaller than the previous cycle, putting the current cycle around ~74%.
A ~74% total correction would point toward the $31K area.
However, we don’t know the exact percentage in advance, so rather than focusing on one precise target, I’ll be watching $31K–$27K as the broader potential bottom zone for this cycle.