๐ Fed Update โ October 2025
Key Developments & Signals
#USGovShutdown
Rate Cut Caution
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan emphasized that future rate cuts should be approached cautiously, warning that overly aggressive easing could risk reigniting inflation pressures.
At the same time, New York Fed President John Williams spoke about the need for central banks to plan for โunpredictable change,โ stressing that anchoring inflation expectations remains critical.
Data Blind Spots & Policy Uncertainty
A partial U.S. government shutdown has disrupted the release of key economic indicatorsโmost notably the monthly jobs reportโleaving the Fed without its usual data inputs ahead of its October meeting.
Because of that, analysts warn the central bank may be โflying blindโ when making decisions in its October 28โ29 meeting.
Expectations for October Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee meets Oct. 28โ29.
The market broadly anticipates a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, potentially bringing the target range to 3.75% โ 4.00%.
Nomura recently revised its outlook to expect rate cuts not only in October, but also in December 2025.
Banking Oversight & Adjustments
The Fed agreed to lower Morgan Stanleyโs stress capital buffer from 5.1% to 4.3% after reviewing their appeal.
Meanwhile, the New York Fedโs Open Market Desk announced a smallโvalue overnight repo operation scheduled for October 8 to test contingency mechanisms.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Legal & Governance Battle
The U.S. Supreme Court blocked former President Trumpโs attempt to immediately remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to remain in position until oral arguments are heard in January 2026.
This decision underscores the ongoing tensions around the Fedโs independence and checks on presidential authority over central bank leadership. $BTC
$ETH
$XRP
Key Developments & Signals
#USGovShutdown
Rate Cut Caution
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan emphasized that future rate cuts should be approached cautiously, warning that overly aggressive easing could risk reigniting inflation pressures.
At the same time, New York Fed President John Williams spoke about the need for central banks to plan for โunpredictable change,โ stressing that anchoring inflation expectations remains critical.
Data Blind Spots & Policy Uncertainty
A partial U.S. government shutdown has disrupted the release of key economic indicatorsโmost notably the monthly jobs reportโleaving the Fed without its usual data inputs ahead of its October meeting.
Because of that, analysts warn the central bank may be โflying blindโ when making decisions in its October 28โ29 meeting.
Expectations for October Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee meets Oct. 28โ29.
The market broadly anticipates a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, potentially bringing the target range to 3.75% โ 4.00%.
Nomura recently revised its outlook to expect rate cuts not only in October, but also in December 2025.
Banking Oversight & Adjustments
The Fed agreed to lower Morgan Stanleyโs stress capital buffer from 5.1% to 4.3% after reviewing their appeal.
Meanwhile, the New York Fedโs Open Market Desk announced a smallโvalue overnight repo operation scheduled for October 8 to test contingency mechanisms.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Legal & Governance Battle
The U.S. Supreme Court blocked former President Trumpโs attempt to immediately remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to remain in position until oral arguments are heard in January 2026.
This decision underscores the ongoing tensions around the Fedโs independence and checks on presidential authority over central bank leadership. $BTC
$ETH
$XRP
