Ubungacabangi bezomnotho
1. I-China imemezele ukuthi izokhuphula isikhala se-deficit kwi-balance sheet yayo okusikhombisa ukuthi kuzoba khona i-QE eyengeziwe e-China. Yiqiniso, kuhle kwesikhathi esifushane ngoba kuzokwengeza i-liquidity. Kodwa khumbula ukuthi lokhu akubonakali kuqina isikhathi eside, njengoba uyazi ukuthi imakethe yezindlu e-China manje iyawa futhi isehle ngo- -80% ekwehleni kwentengo.
2. Ngenxa yalokhu, ibhondi ye-US10yr manje inenani elikhuphukayo elisheshayo elibonisa "ukukholwa" ekusebenzeni kukahulumeni wase-US eminyakeni eyi-10 ezayo. Lokhu kungaholela nakuma-scenario amabili njengoba ngezansi.
- Isimo 1
Uma i-inflation ikhuphuka ngokushesha kunama-bond yields, kuyoba kuhle kumakethe yamasheya ngoba abatshalizimali bazobe besezingeni elingcono ekuthatheni ubungozi (risk on asset) njengoba imakethe yamasheya izoba yinhle njengendlela yokuzivikela ekumelene ne-inflation.
- Isimo 2
Kuzoba yinkinga uma i-yield ikhuphuka ngokushesha kakhulu, ngoba kuzoba ithuba elikhulu (opportunity cost) kubatshalizimali lokuthi babambe ama-equities noma amanye ama-risk on asset.
Ngicabanga ngokwami ukuthi i-inflation ingase ikhule ngokushesha kunama-yields, futhi ngicabanga ukuthi indawo ye-risk on izogcinwa okungenani ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo.
Kodwa esikhathini eside, futhi, ngiyabona ukuthi isimo somnotho sisonke asiqinile okwamanje.
Uhlelo lwe-Chinese stimulus luhle futhi ngokuletha i-liquidity yesikhathi esifushane, kodwa isikhathi eside, futhi, aluqinile kakhulu.
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1. I-China imemezele ukuthi izokhuphula isikhala se-deficit kwi-balance sheet yayo okusikhombisa ukuthi kuzoba khona i-QE eyengeziwe e-China. Yiqiniso, kuhle kwesikhathi esifushane ngoba kuzokwengeza i-liquidity. Kodwa khumbula ukuthi lokhu akubonakali kuqina isikhathi eside, njengoba uyazi ukuthi imakethe yezindlu e-China manje iyawa futhi isehle ngo- -80% ekwehleni kwentengo.
2. Ngenxa yalokhu, ibhondi ye-US10yr manje inenani elikhuphukayo elisheshayo elibonisa "ukukholwa" ekusebenzeni kukahulumeni wase-US eminyakeni eyi-10 ezayo. Lokhu kungaholela nakuma-scenario amabili njengoba ngezansi.
- Isimo 1
Uma i-inflation ikhuphuka ngokushesha kunama-bond yields, kuyoba kuhle kumakethe yamasheya ngoba abatshalizimali bazobe besezingeni elingcono ekuthatheni ubungozi (risk on asset) njengoba imakethe yamasheya izoba yinhle njengendlela yokuzivikela ekumelene ne-inflation.
- Isimo 2
Kuzoba yinkinga uma i-yield ikhuphuka ngokushesha kakhulu, ngoba kuzoba ithuba elikhulu (opportunity cost) kubatshalizimali lokuthi babambe ama-equities noma amanye ama-risk on asset.
Ngicabanga ngokwami ukuthi i-inflation ingase ikhule ngokushesha kunama-yields, futhi ngicabanga ukuthi indawo ye-risk on izogcinwa okungenani ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo.
Kodwa esikhathini eside, futhi, ngiyabona ukuthi isimo somnotho sisonke asiqinile okwamanje.
Uhlelo lwe-Chinese stimulus luhle futhi ngokuletha i-liquidity yesikhathi esifushane, kodwa isikhathi eside, futhi, aluqinile kakhulu.
#BitcoinKeyZone #analysisreport $BTC $ETH