paoloquantweekly

Crypto Market
The main theme last week was pressure across risk assets, with key support levels being tested repeatedly. U.S. equities sold off sharply, crypto moved lower again after its rebound ran into resistance, and gold continued to weaken. Crude oil remained on an upward path and traded more independently. BTC and ETH stabilized near support over the weekend, suggesting near-term buying interest, but this week’s key levels still need to confirm whether the bounce can develop into a broader recovery.
BTC briefly broke above descending resistance and rebounded to around 84.8K, but the move failed to hold and price retreated toward 80K. The market tested the 80K area several times over the weekend. After a brief break below it, selling did not immediately extend, suggesting that some demand remains. ETH was relatively weaker, reaching a weekend low near 2,290 and repeatedly testing the 2,300–2,350 area. Last week’s focus was whether support would hold and a rebound could be confirmed. Support has held for now, but that alone does not establish that the correction is over.
For BTC this week, first watch whether 80K can hold, then whether price can reclaim 81K before testing resistance around 83K–84.5K. A sustained move above that resistance, accompanied by broader participation from major coins, would provide better conditions for a larger rebound. If 80K gives way, the next support area to watch is 75.5K–77K. The increase in short-term low signals is worth monitoring, but it still needs confirmation from price structure.
For ETH, the key near-term zone remains 2,300–2,350. If it holds and ETH reclaims descending resistance, watch whether the rebound can approach 2,500. A decisive break below support would put the daily uptrend under greater pressure and could lead to a deeper retest. ETH has recently underperformed BTC, so confirmation also requires ETH to participate rather than relying on a BTC-only recovery as evidence that the entire market has strengthened.
Market breadth remains mixed. ZEC, NEAR, and FIL showed notable strength during localized rebounds, but market-wide follow-through and sector rotation were inconsistent. Low signals have become more frequent, and short-term signs of recovery have appeared. If BTC and ETH hold support and strength spreads to more assets, risk appetite may improve. If gains remain concentrated in a handful of names while other major coins lag, the move is better treated as a localized recovery.
TradFi and Commodities
In U.S. equities, the QQQ rebound last week failed to reclaim the 730 area, and price then retreated toward 700. The 700 area is an important support level to watch this week, particularly for stabilization on the 4H chart. A decisive break below it would increase the risk of a prolonged correction. Technology, semiconductor, and memory stocks had already seen sizable declines, with some showing oversold conditions, but any rebound still needs confirmation. U.S. equity volatility may also affect crypto sentiment, so watch whether the two markets become more closely correlated.
In commodities, CL continued higher, reaching around 105 over the weekend and setting a new closing high, while a daily Top alert appeared. The broader trend remains strong, but price is elevated in the short term. Watch whether a daily top forms and whether support holds during any pullback.
XAU weakened again after a soft rebound and moved toward 4,000. The previous low near 3,940 is the key support area this week; a break would raise the risk of a new low.
Weekly Outlook
Overall, buying interest and short-term stabilization have appeared near key support, but a trend reversal is not yet confirmed. This week, watch whether BTC can hold 80K and reclaim 83K–84.5K, whether ETH can defend 2,300–2,350 and break above descending resistance, and whether the QQQ can stabilize above 700. If these support levels fail, the current rebound view should be downgraded. Until clearer confirmation appears, risk control and patience remain the priority.
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