Ngabe i-bull market isivele ifikile? Kusenezindawo eziningi ezisazoba nokungabaza ngakho; ngicabanga ukuthi okulandelayo akukhona nje kuphela i-bull market, kodwa kuwumjikelezo webanga elikhulu le-bull market.
$BTC isuka ku-“iBeta ephezulu yamasheya obuchwepheshe” iye ku-“izimpahla eziqinile ezilwa nokwehla kwezimali”—ukugwema ukwesaba (hedging) kubuyela emuva, futhi ukuxhumana negolide kudala irekhodi elisha eliphakeme, ngaphezu kwalokho izihlukanisa ne-S&P 500/izimakethe zase-US.
$BTC kanye ne-
$XAU legolide, i-coefficient yabo ehlobene nezinsuku ezingama-60 isikhuphukele ku-0.663, isiqophe ngokusemthethweni sidlula phezulu irekhodi eliphakeme likaNovemba 2020 lika-0.64—futhi liyona ephakeme kunazo zonke kusukela kunokurekhodwa kokuhweba okwaqala ngo-2011.
NgoSepthemba 3 no-4, izinsuku ezimbili zokuhweba zilandelana zivalwe zingaphezu kuka-0.65—akusona nje isikhonkwane sosuku olulodwa.
$BTC kanye ne-
$XAU legolide, i-coefficient ehlobene yezinsuku ezingama-60 idlule ku-0.5 okungavamile kakhulu; ngokomlando ibisezingxenyeni zokuhweba ezingu-2.2% kuphela, futhi ngaphambilini kube khona izigaba ezimbili kuphela.
Ngo-Agasti 2020, ngaleso sikhathi i-BTC ibibambelele phakathi kuka-$10k kuya ku-$12k, bese kuthi kamuva yaqala umjikelezo wokukhuphuka okukhulu (parabolic/major uptrend) yenyuka yaze yafika ku-$64k.
Ngo-Okthoba 2022 i-Bitcoin yayisesigabeni se-long-term bottom; nakuba phakathi kwenzeka i-FTX “black swan,” ukusuka kumasignali kuya kuthi kamuva i-$73k high, kwaba nokukhuphuka okungu-276%.
Manje sekungokwesithathu emlandweni lapho kubonakala khona ukuxhumana okuphezulu kakhulu negolide. Futhi kulokhu kumsulwa kakhulu: ngesikhathi ukuxhumana kwegolide kudlula ku-0.6, ukuxhumana ne-Nasdaq kwehla ngaphansi kuka-0.25. Imijikelezo embalwa edlule ye-bull market yayithembele kakhulu ekwandeni okudidiyelwe kwama-halving narratives kanye nokuthi imali ye-dollar liquidity iye yaphumela ngaphandle; “i-digital gold” yayingaphezu kokuba yihloko (theme), kuyaqabukela ibe umugqa oyinhloko ngempela. Kuvele inhlanganisela engajwayelekile: “ukuxhumana okuphezulu negolide + ukuxhumana okuphansi ne-stock yase-US + ukushunqa okugcwele (full washout).” Ngakho-ke, ngokwemigomo (macro), izinkinga zezikweletu zase-US kanye nokuthembeka kwe-dollar kusuke kubuyiselwa kabusha ekulinganisweni (re-priced). Yingakho okwamanje kubukeka kakhulu njengezigaba zokuqala ze-bull market uhlobo lwe-main leg, hhayi nje i-rally ejwayelekile yokwehla ngokweqile.
#AltcoinSeason #BullRun #Crypto