Wiсk

$BTC : This is how Bitcoin’s structure could develop all the way into 2033 on a linear (non-logarithmic) scale.
The 4-year cycle is still very much alive.

Orange dots: Major cycle peaks.

Red dots: Where people start screaming, “THE BOTTOM IS IN” and “THE BULL RUN HAS STARTED.”
I marked the same red-dot structure around $48K in 2022, again around $87K in the current cycle, and even mapped out the next potential area where the pattern could repeat.

Blue dots: True cycle bottoms.

$BTC : This also helps explain why the current structure appears larger than the 2022 structure — not only in timing, but in size as well. ( See quoted post )

Let’s compare the rallies first:

2022: Bitcoin rallied from $34K to $48K, a gain of approximately 41.18%.
2026: Bitcoin rallied from $58K to $87K, a gain of approximately 50%.

The 2026 rally is approximately 21.42% larger in relative terms than the comparable 2022 rally.

As I’ve explained before, the current structure appears to be developing on a larger scale, with both upward and downward impulses proportionally larger than their counterparts in 2022.

Now, let’s compare the declines from the same structural point marked by the black boxes:

2022: $48K → $37K = −22.92%
2026: $87K → $63.4K = −27.13%

The projected 2026 decline is approximately 18.37% larger in relative terms than the comparable 2022 decline.

Notice the consistency: both the upward rally and the projected downward move are larger in percentage terms in the current structure.

This is also why a move from the same structural point can differ not only in duration but also in magnitude.

The current structure appears to be repeating a similar pattern to 2022, but each step is taking proportionally longer to develop.
Because we’re potentially on a prolonged bearish cycle which is can last well over one year.

$BTC : The same principle applies to Bitcoin.

We must analyse Bitcoin’s entire price history to understand which previous cycle the current market is most likely to rhyme with — and, more importantly, why.

Instead of automatically assuming that Bitcoin must follow the 2018–2022 cycle, we need to examine the bigger picture and identify which historical structure best aligns with the current one.

That’s why assuming this bear market should last approximately one year simply because previous cycles did is, in my view, an arbitrary assumption without a complete structural analysis to support it.

This is exactly what I did a long time ago.

I analysed Bitcoin’s entire price history, comparing its larger structures, correction phases, and cycle durations rather than focusing on just one previous cycle.

My analysis points towards the current market rhyming with the prolonged 2013–2015 bear market, suggesting that this cycle could last well over a year.

The objective isn’t to force Bitcoin to repeat the most recent cycle. It’s to understand which historical pattern the current market structure most closely resembles.

History rhymes, but identifying the right rhyme requires analysing the entire history — not cherry-picking the cycle that fits your expectations.

$BTC $ETH : And this is how the entire market can develop its major structures simultaneously.

Bitcoin enters a prolonged bearish cycle, potentially rhyming with the extended 2013–2015 bear market.

At the same time, Ethereum gets the time needed to rhyme with its 2018–2019 cycle, when it experienced its first major structural reset — a decline of approximately 94% from its peak.

This time, my analysis points towards a potential second major structural reset, with ETH declining approximately 89% from its cycle peak.

These aren’t necessarily separate scenarios. They can be interconnected parts of a much larger market structure developing across multiple assets and timeframes.

Bitcoin’s cycle, Ethereum’s structural reset, and the broader altcoin bear market can all unfold simultaneously.

This is how the market builds its structures — not in isolation, but through multiple cycles developing together, each with its own timing and magnitude, while remaining part of the bigger picture.

One market. Multiple assets. Different cycle structures. One interconnected process.

$BTC : Back to my LTF 30M analysis:

The expected recovery toward $82,727 played out as anticipated, with BTC pushing as high as $82,900.

Price then reacted immediately, dropping approximately 1.5% from the mentioned target zone.

$BTC & #SP500

Additional context to my quoted post:

I’ve now added the Bitcoin chart to provide a broader perspective on the current market cycle and highlight the striking similarities with the prolonged 2013–2015 bear cycle.

One of the most important similarities is the growing divergence between Bitcoin and the S&P 500.

During the 2013–2015 bear market, Bitcoin became increasingly disconnected from the S&P 500’s trajectory. While stocks continued trending higher, Bitcoin entered a prolonged structural decline and followed its own bearish cycle.

Interestingly, this type of divergence was less pronounced during other major Bitcoin cycles, when BTC and the S&P 500 generally followed more closely aligned market rhythms, with major corrections occurring around similar periods.

But this time, we appear to be seeing a pattern much closer to 2013–2015.

Once again, the S&P 500 continues pushing higher while Bitcoin appears to be moving through a prolonged bearish phase, increasingly diverging from the stock market’s bullish trajectory.

This is one of the reasons I believe the current cycle is following the 2013–2015 cycle in terms of timing and duration, rather than the shorter 2022 cycle.

Back then, the S&P 500 continued rising throughout much of Bitcoin’s bear market before eventually entering its own bearish phase. Ultimately, both markets experienced a major correction.

Could we be approaching a similar turning point in 2025–2027?

If this historical pattern plays out again, the S&P 500 could enter its own bearish phase just as Bitcoin moves into the next stage of its broader correction.

This is precisely the scenario I’ve been discussing for the past 3–4 months. With both charts now side by side, the historical similarities become even more compelling.

$ETH :The Layers of Cycles

History rhymes — but there’s one crucial detail we must pay attention to.

We all know the saying: history rhymes. But before assuming Ethereum will repeat a specific part of a previous cycle, we must first understand how its entire market structure works.

Markets don’t consist of a single cycle. They contain multiple layers of cycles within cycles: micro-cycles within sub-cycles, sub-cycles within larger cycles, and larger structures unfolding across higher timeframes.

We cannot simply select a random correction from the past and assume that once the same percentage decline occurs, the correction must be over.

For example, if ETH experienced a 70% correction in a previous cycle, that doesn’t mean a 70% decline in the current cycle automatically signals the bottom.

That’s not how I approach market analysis. We must analyse the entire structure before drawing conclusions.

I’ve divided Ethereum’s historical price action into distinct structural phases, marking the corrections with black boxes on the chart
The first major structural reset occurred during 2018–2019, when ETH declined approximately 94% from its peak.

This is where the hierarchy of cycles becomes crucial.

The market develops through smaller cycles nested within larger ones. These smaller movements contribute to the development of a larger structure, which eventually reaches a major correction phase. Following that reset, a new phase develops, and the process continues.

Based on my analysis of Ethereum’s entire price history, I believe the current market is more likely to follow a pattern resembling the 2018–2019 bear market rather than the 2022 correction.

ETH could experience its second major structural reset, with a projected decline of approximately 89% from its cycle peak.

This would place Ethereum in my projected $528–$600 accumulation zone during the current bear market.

The key isn’t simply knowing that history rhymes. It’s understanding which historical structure the current market is actually rhyming with.

$BTC & #SP500

My Different analytical approaches are pointing toward the same possibility: the S&P 500 have already topped.

I was looking at the S&P 500 chart and noticed something interesting. Its current price action is beginning to resemble the structure Bitcoin formed around its $126K peak — both before and after the top.

Look at the similarities in price behavior and market structure across both charts.

Could we be watching the same pattern unfold again, this time in the stock market

About $ADA :

ADA is also following the structural patterns developing across other large-cap coins, as discussed in my quoted post. Its current price action closely resembles a Triple Combination within the NeoWave framework.

As explained in my previous posts, the current rally could mark the completion of Phase 1 of the correction, with Phase 2 now beginning to unfold.

The Phase 2 could drive ADA toward its projected true cycle-bottom zone of $0.047–$0.07, potentially by Q1 2027.

$SOL and $BNB are following similar structures as well.

Just like BTC and other large caps, both appear to be developing structures similar to 2022 — but on a much larger scale due to the prolonged bearish cycle.

I’ve shared my analysis of SOL and BNB many times, but let’s revisit my bottom targets:

$BNB : $280–$320
$SOL : $20–$25

The structures remain similar. The difference is the time required to complete them.

$LTC 1W :

If you remember, I’ve mentioned that large-cap altcoins that typically follow BTC are developing similar market structures — but on a much larger timescale.

The reason? We’re dealing with a prolonged bearish cycle. Even when price follows a structure similar to 2022, each phase takes longer to develop. BTC itself is following the 2022 structure step by step, but with significantly more time required for each stage to unfold.

Here’s another large-cap coin analysis: $LTC

So far, LTC appears to have completed Phase 1 of its correction. However, Phase 2 is still ahead and could continue developing into Q1 2027, potentially leading to the true cycle bottom.

My main accumulation zone is $20–$24. This is where I’ll be looking to start building a position as the market approaches the final bottoming phase.

The structure is familiar. The timing is different.

$BNB : same structure.

Large-cap assets that tend to move with BTC often form very similar structures.

Price is following the 2022 structure step by step, but this time it’s developing on a larger scale. That also means it takes longer to fully develop than the 2022 structure.

This explains why one year of the bear market has already passed, yet price is still only around the middle of the overall structure.

Phase 2 of the correction will develop over the coming months, eventually leading to the true cycle bottom.

We can see the same three touches at the top, marked with the blue dots. This strongly suggests that the top is most likely already in.

My target remains $280–320 for BNB this cycle.

$BTC 2022 vs. 2026

The 2026 structure is following the 2022 structure step by step.

$BTC Why don’t weekly higher highs shift the structure to bullish for me?

As I’ve explained before, Bitcoin doesn’t move along simple, straight trendlines.

It moves through mirrored trendlines because the underlying structure is curved — and a curved structure cannot be accurately represented by a single straight line.
( Look at quoted post )

That’s why I’m not focusing on isolated weekly higher highs. I’m looking at how price is developing within the larger curved structure and whether that structure itself is actually changing.

A lower-timeframe higher high doesn’t automatically invalidate the bigger structure.

We saw something very similar in the 2022 structure: price broke higher and technically formed a higher high around the same price range, yet it still remained below the mirrored trendline resistance. Price then rejected and continued lower, eventually forming the true cycle bottom.

So for me, the question isn’t simply:

“Did Bitcoin make a weekly higher high?”

The real question is:

“Did Bitcoin actually break the larger structural resistance and change the underlying market structure?”

I’ve included the 1D chart because it makes this much clearer. The black line on the chart is the mirrored trendline I’m referring to.

On the 1D timeframe, you can clearly see price repeatedly touching that black mirrored trendline and getting rejected. On the weekly chart, many of these rejections are compressed into what simply looks like a wick, so the interaction with the structure isn’t nearly as obvious.

That’s why I’m looking at the 1D structure here — it shows the actual price reaction around the mirrored trendline and makes those structural rejections much easier to see.

$BTC : There are many more small pieces to this structure, and if you pay close attention to them, they all point toward the same potential answer: a prolonged bearish cycle.

Even the smaller details — such as the 12-month candles — are interesting.

Historically, Bitcoin has bottomed with a full-bodied red 12-month candle.

But look at the current 12-month candle. It still looks more like a clean wick than a true cycle-bottom candle.

The 2013–2015 prolonged bearish cycle is especially interesting.

On the 12-month timeframe, Bitcoin first printed a full-bodied red candle — but that was not the true cycle bottom.

The following 12-month candle marked the actual cycle bottom, and immediately after that, the bull cycle began.

In the other major cycles, Bitcoin simply formed the full-bodied red 12-month candle at the cycle bottom and then immediately transitioned into the next bull cycle.

So what does the current structure tell us?

We still have 2 months left before the current 12-month candle closes, and so far, it still looks more like a wick than a true cycle-bottom candle.

If this candle closes without forming that full-bodied red structure, we could potentially see the next 12-month candle mark the true cycle bottom — followed by the start of the next bull cycle.

That would be another important similarity to the 2013–2015 prolonged bearish cycle.

And this is exactly why I keep saying:

The answer to many of the “weird” things we’re seeing in this cycle may simply be a prolonged bearish cycle.

$BTC : We’re potentially in a prolonged bearish cycle.

Be emotionally prepared, because we could soon see the true correction toward the actual cycle bottom unfold over the coming months.

The current structure continues to point toward a potential cycle bottom in Q1 2027.

$BTC : I’ve talked about this many times before, but I’ve never explained this part in such detail.

Another interesting detail in Bitcoin’s long-term structure:

The uptrend and downtrend angles have been compressing significantly from cycle to cycle.

Since my thesis is that the bottom is not in yet and the true cycle bottom is still ahead, I want to focus specifically on the downtrend angles.

So far we have : 46.43° → 27.68° → 15.41°

The compression between these cycles was:

46.43° → 27.68° = −40.38%
27.68° → 15.41° = −44.33%

So historically, the compression has been roughly 40–44%.

If we apply a similar compression to the previous 15.41° downtrend angle, the current cycle would logically fall around 8.6°–9.2°.

That gives us a projected angle of approximately 8.69°.

And interestingly, this projected angle points toward a potential $36K–$32K cycle-bottom area.

If the same structural compression continues into the next cycle, the downtrend angle could flatten even further toward ~5.15°.

This isn’t based on a single indicator.

It’s a structural projection based on the historical compression of Bitcoin’s downtrend angles from cycle to cycle.

$BTC : There is also an interesting pattern here. The differences are:

93.7% → 86.3% = 7.4 percentage points
86.3% → 84.4% = 1.9 points
84.4% → 77.9% = 6.5 points

So the sequence is remarkably close to:

7 → 2 → 7

If this alternating relationship continues, the next reduction could potentially be around 2 percentage points.

That would give:

77.9% − ~2% ≈ 75.9%

So instead of assuming another large compression, the pattern itself suggests a potential next correction around:

~75%–76% from the ~$126K peak

A ~75% correction from $126K would put Bitcoin around the $32K area.

And this is particularly interesting because it aligns with the broader $32K–$36K potential bottom zone derived from the bottom-to-bottom compression.

However, I’m not trying to predict the exact bottom price. The purpose here is to identify a potential bottom zone, which is why I think we should keep the broader $32K–$36K range in mind rather than focus on a single precise price.

$BTC : Bitcoin’s Bear Market Structure — A Second Measurement

We’ve already measured the bottom-to-bottom distance across previous cycles, and based on that compression, the current cycle points toward a potential $32K–$36K bottom zone.

Now we can take that calculation one step further and measure the correction from the ATH to that projected bottom.

Historically, the bear-market corrections were:

2011: −93.7%
2014–2015: −86.3%
2018: −84.4%
2022: −77.9%

And now, using the independently projected $32K–$36K bottom zone:

Current cycle: ~−71.4% to −74.6%

From the approximately $126K ATH:

$36K → −71.4%
$32K → −74.6%

So the progression becomes:

−93.7% → −86.3% → −84.4% → −77.9% → ~−71% to −75%

What we can clearly see is that the historical difference between each ATH-to-bottom correction is shrinking.

But it is shrinking gradually, not exponentially.

The reductions have generally been in the range of roughly 3–6 percentage points, rather than suddenly dropping by something like 24 percentage points.

That is an important distinction.

A move from the previous −77.9% correction to a correction around −54%, for example, would represent an extremely aggressive structural reduction.

That is essentially the argument behind calling $58K the final bottom.

But that would require Bitcoin’s correction depth to compress far more aggressively than the historical progression suggests.

The historical structure instead points toward a gradual compression of correction depth, which is why the $32K–$36K zone remains consistent with the broader cycle structure.

The key point is that we did not choose the correction percentage first.

The $32K–$36K range was derived first from the bottom-to-bottom compression.

Now we are simply measuring what percentage correction from the current ATH would be required to reach that independently projected zone.

Have you ever tried inverting the chart?

Honestly, it looks even better than the normal view. Sometimes flipping the chart makes the structure much easier to see.

$BTC