Volatility remains high in the market, last week we saw selling volume outweigh buying as the market took a tumble with BTC falling sharply below $27k.
Altcoins followed suit as they also toppled, many currently down double digits over the past 7 days including $MANA and $FTM which were amongst the worst performers this week.
The overall narrative remains unclear, yesterday (04/26/23) BTC experienced huge swings with the market rallying 10% followed by a subsequent drop of the same magnitude.
As it stands ETH and the majority of altcoins are currently down over the past 7 days, with BTC up by 0.6%.
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Topping the list this week was Crypto to Stablecoins transactions, with the market seeing a pullback it is no surprise to see this top as speculators look to exit positions, driving price further towards the downside.
Stablecoin to crypto transactions placed 2nd increasing 1.85% from last week, as the market pulls back speculators continue to average back into positions looking for the market to pump. .
Crypto to crypto transactions still remain significant this week with a value of 13.02%, as mentioned previously speculators look to rotate holdings into different altcoins while the market remains volatile looking to further capitalise on upwards movements.
Options
The desk observed the 25D skew on BTC options is moving down, especially on the 7-day expired ones. That could be caused by either the option traders being less willing to pay a higher premium on BTC puts or starting new call positions.
The 25D skew on ETH options are relatively flat after ETH soared over 10% after the Shanghai upgrade. The different moves on the 25D skew between BTC and ETH might indicate that capital rotates back to BTC soon.
Overall market technicals
BTC
As selling volume triumphed the market last week BTC sharply declined, touching briefly below $27k
The support zone we identified around $26,500 was front run as the bulls stepped back in this week causing the price to rally over 10% trading back above $30k for a moment.
Price action didnt stop there, as there was another sell off of the same magnitude sending price back below $28k.
Bulls regained control during the late evening (US time) as price climbed back above $28,500 where it is currently sitting within our previous range.
The question now lies whether the range will hold again or not, if the bulls can successfully hold the level we are likely to see price make another attempt above $30k.
Alternatively, if bears step back in we could see another leg down towards our support zone.
ETH
Since trading above augusts high, ETH is currently rangebound sitting above the major S/R level ($1800) from 2021.
With price sitting at a critical level the bulls will need to successfully hold price above to keep the range in play and another attempt to break above $2,000.
Alternatively, if price fails to hold bears will step back in attempting to send price lower targeting previous lows for liquidity.
Macro at a glance
Last Thursday (04/20/23), the US released a negative PPI reading in March, -0.5% month-over-month, lower than the estimated 0.1% and the previous month’s 0%. The number implies a continued slowdown in inflation, sending a positive signal to the market that the FED might not have to continue the rate hike aggressively. We see both equities and Bitcoins close in green, while ETH broke the previous resistance level at $1940 and soared over the $2000 level.
Last Friday (04/21/23), the -1.0% reading on retail sales raises market concern again on the US economic slowdown. Gold dropped 1.8% and traded below the $2000 key level. ETH continued its upward move and passed the $2100 level, driving the crypto space closed in the green zone.
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