Your timing is interesting - that crash already happened.
AKE (Akedo) ran 300%+ last week to $0.1467 - $0.1576 ATH on Sept 20, then flash-crashed 72% to ∼$0.037 in hours. Right now it's bouncing around $0.05-$0.053.
Why it dumped:
1. The unlock you’re calling out just hit:
Sept 21 - 2.11 BILLION AKE unlocked (2.11% of total 100B supply). Private investors got the biggest chunk - ∼989M tokens. Only 22.8% of supply is circulating, so there’s still 54.9% locked over next 36 months. Every 21st of the month another ∼2.1-2.3B hits.
2. It's all futures, no spot:
Futures volume was $2.1B vs $61M spot - 34x more. Open interest was $91M-$200M. That’s pure leverage casino. When it unwinds, $33M in liquidations happened in one crash.
3. On-chain is ugly right now:
92.2% of transfer volume flagged as wash trading
Sept 22: 3.85M AKE net INFLOW to exchanges, 0 withdrawals - classic sell positioning
No verified catalyst for the bounce, it's a low-float bounce inside a 66% drawdown
Could $0.020 happen? Math says yes. A 90% correction from the top was already being stress-tested by analysts - they modeled $0.036 -> $0.0036. FDV vs market cap gap is huge: $3.63B FDV vs $828M market cap, so every unlock dilutes.
But shorting it NOW with $10K after it already dropped 66-72%?
This is the most dangerous spot to short:
Funding is probably negative already (everyone short)
Low float + 34x futures = short squeezes are brutal. In July, one $3.37M leveraged long triggered $10M+ in short liquidations
It already bounced 26.5% in one day after the crash
If you're set on shorting, pros watching this are tracking 3 things:
Gate.io hot wallet 0x0d0707... - if it starts dumping that 3.85M block
Whether real organic volume stays above $13M (not wash $90M)
Next unlock Oct 21 - same 2B+ supply pressure
$ONE you mentioned too - you mean Harmony ONE? Or Akedo related?
Not financial advice, but a $0.020 target is fundamentally plausible given tokenomics, but the risk/reward on a leveraged short after a 72% crash is where most people get liquidated on the bounce.
You running isolated margin with a tight stop, or full degen 10x?$AKE
