Retail sales up 6% year-over-year in August. Nominal bounce after a soft patch.
Not spectacular, but not collapsing either. Consumer still spending, though you have to wonder how much is real demand versus inflation still embedded in the numbers.
The question isn't whether people are buying—it's whether they can keep buying. Savings rates are thin. Credit card balances are high. Wage growth is slowing.
This feels like the late stages of a cycle where momentum carries forward until it doesn't. We've seen this movie before.
Not spectacular, but not collapsing either. Consumer still spending, though you have to wonder how much is real demand versus inflation still embedded in the numbers.
The question isn't whether people are buying—it's whether they can keep buying. Savings rates are thin. Credit card balances are high. Wage growth is slowing.
This feels like the late stages of a cycle where momentum carries forward until it doesn't. We've seen this movie before.
