$RIF bounced +17% today, but here's the thing nobody's talking about: it's still down 18% on the week. 📉➡️📈
One green candle doesn't erase a week of selling. Let me break down what I'm actually seeing.
**The Context:**
RIF at $0.0858 broke above the $0.08 psychological level today with $165M in volume. Sounds good, right? But look at the moving averages — price is still below the 25-day SMA ($0.1152) and the daily MACD histogram is negative (-0.0012). This is a relief rally inside a downtrend, not a reversal.
**Why This Matters:**
The 4H RSI sits at 51.6 — dead neutral. Not oversold, not overbought. The daily RSI at 45.6 is slightly bearish. When you combine neutral momentum with a bounce from oversold conditions, you typically get a move that runs out of steam near the first major resistance.
**Where I'm Watching:**
🎯 If you missed the move: Entry at $0.072-$0.078 — this is where the 99-day SMA ($0.0815) and the previous consolidation zone overlap
🛑 Stop: $0.065 — below the range, clean invalidation
✅ TP1: $0.09 (round number + previous resistance)
✅ TP2: $0.10 (where the 4H SMA25 converges at $0.0862 — extended target)
Risk/reward at 1.5:1. Not amazing, which is why I'd wait for the deeper pullback.
**The Honest Take:**
$165M volume is decent but the volume ratio is only 0.87x — below average. Real reversions need above-average volume confirmation. This feels like a technical bounce, not a conviction buy.
**Question for you:**
What's your minimum R:R ratio before you take a trade? 1.5? 2? 3? Let's discuss 👇
#RIF #Bitcoin #RSI #CryptoSetup
⚠️ This is not financial advice. Always DYOR and manage your risk. Relief rallies in downtrends are inherently risky.