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This Is the Bitcoin Situation for the Next 3 Years
This is the Bitcoin Situation for the Next 3 Years
Since last August I warned that the $108,000 level could not be lost in Bitcoin or else we entered a bearish cycle and it was going to be hard.
I am not a guru nor do I have a crystal ball.
But I try to get informed and I dedicate a lot of time to understanding what a Halving is. I understand mining costs. I understand staking. I understand leverage.
But above all we need to understand how all this leads us to CYCLES.
This chart is very powerful for understanding Bitcoin.
Each line is a cycle since its Halving. This event happens every 4 years.
The first cycle (the blue one) made the high somewhat earlier but the following cycles have made their highs at the same moment. All the lows have happened one year after reaching this high.
This last cycle (the strong yellow one) looks smaller and this is not a coincidence. Notice that each cycle is smaller than the previous one.
And this makes sense.
Bitcoin cycles are INFLATIONARY AND LOGARITHMIC.
Inflationary and logarithmic?
This is vital. Let me translate it for you.
Bitcoin should follow inflation because it is a finite asset like gold or real estate in certain areas.
Easy but logarithmic?
This is something you can't IGNORE anymore.
🤔 Bitcoin cycles go up less every time.
One reason is that the more an asset capitalizes the more it costs to keep it going up. Money in the world is finite and therefore when something capitalizes billions it starts to be complicated to make it grow in a faster rate than inflation.
But you must also know that in the Halvings the rewards to miners are reduced.
At the beginning this meant a beastly reduction of many BTCs which drove the price very high. But now the reward is barely reduced by 3 or 1 BTC so the price cannot rise at the same pace.
If we pay attention to previous cycles Bitcoin will keep falling in 2026 until the end of the year before starting a recovery. This is the most likely scenario right now.
So much for Bitcoin theory so let us go to the practical part.
🚀 Where will this low happen?
I do not know and nobody knows but we have clues.
In each of the cycles we have seen the price retreat from highs.
And a lot.
The first cycle down 85%
The second down 80%
The third down 75%
And now?
Maybe 70%? It could be. It is just an approximation.
This last drop to $60,000 is already a great milestone as the price has corrected 50% but in previous cycles we see that the best is still to come. It can fall another 50% down to $30k or $40k to meet the levels close to 70% correction which would seem plausible based on previous behavior.
In terms of price it seems there is a gap to fill and in terms of time it is even better.
Correction time of first cycle is 12 months
Correction time of second cycle is 12 months
Correction time of third cycle is 12 months
If this fourth cycle lasts the same as the previous ones we will be talking about seeing the moment of maximum pain in October 2026.
That is the moment where we will all say that $BTC is going to 0.
Who knows.
But, if we start accumulating in the $60k zone and save some money for the $30-40k area, we could easily average a $50k position during 2026.
After three years we should be at the next cycle peak which following a logarithmic progression could be somewhat higher than these last $120k (current cycle peak).
Let us assume $150k. (Which is a number I get from the serie of previous rallies, but there is too much math for today)
We are talking about selling the investment for triple the price in 3 years. That is a return that is not bad at all.
The risk is total. I go without a Stop Loss. It is aspirational investment and in no case is it capital protection.
And while we wait for the price to reach the right zone to keep buying, you could also make a quick trade to catch the next 10% rally.
👇 WANT MORE?
🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic
Since last August I warned that the $108,000 level could not be lost in Bitcoin or else we entered a bearish cycle and it was going to be hard.
I am not a guru nor do I have a crystal ball.
But I try to get informed and I dedicate a lot of time to understanding what a Halving is. I understand mining costs. I understand staking. I understand leverage.
But above all we need to understand how all this leads us to CYCLES.
This chart is very powerful for understanding Bitcoin.
Each line is a cycle since its Halving. This event happens every 4 years.
The first cycle (the blue one) made the high somewhat earlier but the following cycles have made their highs at the same moment. All the lows have happened one year after reaching this high.
This last cycle (the strong yellow one) looks smaller and this is not a coincidence. Notice that each cycle is smaller than the previous one.
And this makes sense.
Bitcoin cycles are INFLATIONARY AND LOGARITHMIC.
Inflationary and logarithmic?
This is vital. Let me translate it for you.
Bitcoin should follow inflation because it is a finite asset like gold or real estate in certain areas.
Easy but logarithmic?
This is something you can't IGNORE anymore.
🤔 Bitcoin cycles go up less every time.
One reason is that the more an asset capitalizes the more it costs to keep it going up. Money in the world is finite and therefore when something capitalizes billions it starts to be complicated to make it grow in a faster rate than inflation.
But you must also know that in the Halvings the rewards to miners are reduced.
At the beginning this meant a beastly reduction of many BTCs which drove the price very high. But now the reward is barely reduced by 3 or 1 BTC so the price cannot rise at the same pace.
If we pay attention to previous cycles Bitcoin will keep falling in 2026 until the end of the year before starting a recovery. This is the most likely scenario right now.
So much for Bitcoin theory so let us go to the practical part.
🚀 Where will this low happen?
I do not know and nobody knows but we have clues.
In each of the cycles we have seen the price retreat from highs.
And a lot.
The first cycle down 85%
The second down 80%
The third down 75%
And now?
Maybe 70%? It could be. It is just an approximation.
This last drop to $60,000 is already a great milestone as the price has corrected 50% but in previous cycles we see that the best is still to come. It can fall another 50% down to $30k or $40k to meet the levels close to 70% correction which would seem plausible based on previous behavior.
In terms of price it seems there is a gap to fill and in terms of time it is even better.
Correction time of first cycle is 12 months
Correction time of second cycle is 12 months
Correction time of third cycle is 12 months
If this fourth cycle lasts the same as the previous ones we will be talking about seeing the moment of maximum pain in October 2026.
That is the moment where we will all say that $BTC is going to 0.
Who knows.
But, if we start accumulating in the $60k zone and save some money for the $30-40k area, we could easily average a $50k position during 2026.
After three years we should be at the next cycle peak which following a logarithmic progression could be somewhat higher than these last $120k (current cycle peak).
Let us assume $150k. (Which is a number I get from the serie of previous rallies, but there is too much math for today)
We are talking about selling the investment for triple the price in 3 years. That is a return that is not bad at all.
The risk is total. I go without a Stop Loss. It is aspirational investment and in no case is it capital protection.
And while we wait for the price to reach the right zone to keep buying, you could also make a quick trade to catch the next 10% rally.
👇 WANT MORE?
🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic
ptsuissse:
🍀🚀
BTC Weekly Structure: Distribution… or Just the Calm Before Expansion?
Most traders won’t catch this at first glance, but on the weekly timeframe, $BTC is moving in a rhythm we’ve seen before. It looks messy zoomed in. Zoom out — and the structure tells a much clearer story.
Bitcoin historically rotates through phases: impulse → consolidation → impulse → exhaustion.
The last major leg up had all the late-cycle characteristics — aggressive expansion, shallow pullbacks, relentless continuation. That kind of behavior typically shows up closer to cycle tops than fresh beginnings.
Now the character has shifted.
We’re seeing:
• Lower highs beginning to stack
• Price compressing inside a tightening range
• Volatility cooling off
• Momentum losing its clean follow-through
The waves are still there — but they’re no longer impulsive. They hesitate. They stall. Structurally, that leans more toward distribution than fresh accumulation.
If history offers guidance, $BTC may need more time to reset expectations. That could mean extended sideways action. It could also mean one deeper corrective leg to properly clear positioning before any sustainable expansion resumes.
A true bullish shift won’t be subtle. It will look like:
Strong impulse legs
Followed by continuation
Not hesitation
Until that structure reappears, this remains a patience environment — not a prediction environment.
Watch behavior. Not hope.
#bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis
Bitcoin historically rotates through phases: impulse → consolidation → impulse → exhaustion.
The last major leg up had all the late-cycle characteristics — aggressive expansion, shallow pullbacks, relentless continuation. That kind of behavior typically shows up closer to cycle tops than fresh beginnings.
Now the character has shifted.
We’re seeing:
• Lower highs beginning to stack
• Price compressing inside a tightening range
• Volatility cooling off
• Momentum losing its clean follow-through
The waves are still there — but they’re no longer impulsive. They hesitate. They stall. Structurally, that leans more toward distribution than fresh accumulation.
If history offers guidance, $BTC may need more time to reset expectations. That could mean extended sideways action. It could also mean one deeper corrective leg to properly clear positioning before any sustainable expansion resumes.
A true bullish shift won’t be subtle. It will look like:
Strong impulse legs
Followed by continuation
Not hesitation
Until that structure reappears, this remains a patience environment — not a prediction environment.
Watch behavior. Not hope.
#bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis
Tim Carter:
Well written
🚨 ALERTA: O BITCOIN ESTÁ EM UMA ENCRUZILHADA! (O que ninguém te conta)
O mercado não perdoa os desavisados. Enquanto a maioria olha apenas para o preço de $69.632, os grandes players estão jogando xadrez. Você está sendo o jogador ou a peça? ♟️
O Lado Sombrio (Os Riscos):
A situação técnica é tensa. Tivemos um cruzamento mortal: a EMA 7 cruzou abaixo da EMA 25, e o MACD está gritando "momentum bearish". Somado à pressão de venda de mineradores (Cango vendeu +4.400 $BTC !), o risco de uma correção mais profunda é real. Há quem preveja quedas de até 50% se o suporte macro falhar. 📉
O Lado Brilhante (A Oportunidade):
Mas calma! Nem tudo é caos. A MicroStrategy acabou de abocanhar mais 1.142 BTC. Eles sabem de algo que você não sabe? Além disso, o Federal Reserve planeja injetar $8,3 bilhões em liquidez. Dinheiro novo no mercado costuma empurrar ativos de risco para o topo.
A Pergunta de Ouro:
Estamos diante de uma "armadilha para ursos" ou o início de um inverno rigoroso? ❄️🔥
O que você vai fazer?
1️⃣ Comprar a queda?
2️⃣ Esperar os $60k?
3️⃣ Sair do mercado?
Comenta aqui embaixo a sua estratégia! 👇
👉 Quer antecipar os próximos movimentos do mercado e não ser pego de surpresa? Siga meu perfil agora para análises brutas e diretas! 🚀
#BinanceBitcoinSAFUFund #USIranStandoff #bitcoin #BTC
O mercado não perdoa os desavisados. Enquanto a maioria olha apenas para o preço de $69.632, os grandes players estão jogando xadrez. Você está sendo o jogador ou a peça? ♟️
O Lado Sombrio (Os Riscos):
A situação técnica é tensa. Tivemos um cruzamento mortal: a EMA 7 cruzou abaixo da EMA 25, e o MACD está gritando "momentum bearish". Somado à pressão de venda de mineradores (Cango vendeu +4.400 $BTC !), o risco de uma correção mais profunda é real. Há quem preveja quedas de até 50% se o suporte macro falhar. 📉
O Lado Brilhante (A Oportunidade):
Mas calma! Nem tudo é caos. A MicroStrategy acabou de abocanhar mais 1.142 BTC. Eles sabem de algo que você não sabe? Além disso, o Federal Reserve planeja injetar $8,3 bilhões em liquidez. Dinheiro novo no mercado costuma empurrar ativos de risco para o topo.
A Pergunta de Ouro:
Estamos diante de uma "armadilha para ursos" ou o início de um inverno rigoroso? ❄️🔥
O que você vai fazer?
1️⃣ Comprar a queda?
2️⃣ Esperar os $60k?
3️⃣ Sair do mercado?
Comenta aqui embaixo a sua estratégia! 👇
👉 Quer antecipar os próximos movimentos do mercado e não ser pego de surpresa? Siga meu perfil agora para análises brutas e diretas! 🚀
#BinanceBitcoinSAFUFund #USIranStandoff #bitcoin #BTC
Maryam Reynaud MK0B:
Analisando um pouco o gráfico fica a possibilidade de mais correção. Uma injeção financeira maior nos ativos tendem a dar uma maior volatidade. Sendo assim seguimos a tendência.
📉 Bitcoin $BTC
🚨 TRADE SIGNAL: SHORT$ALLO
Bias: Bearish 🔴$FTT
🚪 Entry: $69,800 - $70,500 (Rejecting the retest of broken support)
🎯 TPs: $66,000 - $63,500 - $60,200
🛑 SL: $71,600 (Invalidation if it reclaims $71k)
💡 Technical Logic: BTC has officially lost the $70,000 psychological floor. The "Sharpe Ratio" has hit lows not seen since 2023, indicating structural weakness. The $70k level has flipped from support to resistance. We are selling any bounce into this level, targeting the liquidity void down to $60k.
#BTC #bitcoin #USTechFundFlows #GoldSilverRally #WhaleDeRiskETH
🚨 TRADE SIGNAL: SHORT$ALLO
Bias: Bearish 🔴$FTT
🚪 Entry: $69,800 - $70,500 (Rejecting the retest of broken support)
🎯 TPs: $66,000 - $63,500 - $60,200
🛑 SL: $71,600 (Invalidation if it reclaims $71k)
💡 Technical Logic: BTC has officially lost the $70,000 psychological floor. The "Sharpe Ratio" has hit lows not seen since 2023, indicating structural weakness. The $70k level has flipped from support to resistance. We are selling any bounce into this level, targeting the liquidity void down to $60k.
#BTC #bitcoin #USTechFundFlows #GoldSilverRally #WhaleDeRiskETH
BTC Weekly Structure: Distribution or Just a Pause Before the Next Expansion?
Most people won’t notice this, but on the weekly chart, $BTC is printing a very familiar rhythm. At first glance it looks random and directionless, almost messy. But when you zoom out and study the structure carefully, it’s far from chaotic.
Bitcoin tends to move in repeating phases: impulse → pause → impulse → exhaustion. The previous leg up was classic late-cycle behavior strong expansion, shallow pullbacks, and continuation after continuation.
That type of price action usually appears near the end of a cycle, not at the beginning. When upside momentum gets fully consumed, the market shifts its character.
What we’re seeing now is different. Lower highs are forming, price is compressing in a relatively tight range, and volatility is drying up. The waves still exist, but they’re no longer clean or impulsive like before. Structurally, this leans more toward distribution than fresh accumulation.
If previous cycles are any guide, #BTC may need more time to reset. That could mean extended sideways action, or even one deeper corrective move to properly shake out positioning before a true new expansion phase begins.
I’ll only turn structurally bullish again when price starts trending with clarity when impulse legs are followed by strong continuation, not hesitation. Until then, patience matters more than prediction.
#bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis
Bitcoin tends to move in repeating phases: impulse → pause → impulse → exhaustion. The previous leg up was classic late-cycle behavior strong expansion, shallow pullbacks, and continuation after continuation.
That type of price action usually appears near the end of a cycle, not at the beginning. When upside momentum gets fully consumed, the market shifts its character.
What we’re seeing now is different. Lower highs are forming, price is compressing in a relatively tight range, and volatility is drying up. The waves still exist, but they’re no longer clean or impulsive like before. Structurally, this leans more toward distribution than fresh accumulation.
If previous cycles are any guide, #BTC may need more time to reset. That could mean extended sideways action, or even one deeper corrective move to properly shake out positioning before a true new expansion phase begins.
I’ll only turn structurally bullish again when price starts trending with clarity when impulse legs are followed by strong continuation, not hesitation. Until then, patience matters more than prediction.
#bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis
QuangHaiJK:
phân tích quá chuẩn
¿En serio nos vamos a tragar este cuento ahora?🤨
Resulta que Goldman Sachs sí, los mismos que se pasaron AÑOS diciendo que las criptomonedas no eran un activo real y que el Bitcoin no tenía valor acaba de revelar que tienen MILES DE MILLONES invertidos en ETFs de Bitcoin, Ether, Solana y hasta XRP.😲
¡Qué conveniente!🙄
Primero te dicen que es "dinero de juguete" y que tengas cuidado, esperan a que los precios bajen o que el mercado esté maduro, y mientras tú dudabas, ellos estaban llenando sus bolsas en silencio. Es el colmo de la hipocresía financiera. Se burlan de la gente común mientras por detrás usan su capital institucional para adueñarse del tablero.
La pregunta no es si las criptomonedas funcionan (obviamente Goldman Sachs sabe que sí), la pregunta es:
¿Por qué seguimos escuchando a estos "expertos" que dicen una cosa y hacen exactamente lo contrario?
No se dejen engañar. El dinero inteligente ya entró, y no lo hicieron porque "cambiaron de opinión", lo hicieron porque no quieren quedarse fuera del negocio del siglo.
¿Qué opinas tú?
¿Crees que Goldman Sachs es ahora un "aliado" del sector o simplemente son los mismos lobos de siempre con piel de cordero?
👇Suelta lo que piensas en los comentarios, los leo (y nos desahogamos juntos).💥
#bitcoin #Ethereum #solana #Ripple $BTC $ETH $SOL
Descargo de Responsabilidad ⚠️
La información proporcionada en el post anterior es únicamente para fines informativos y educativos. No debe interpretarse como asesoramiento financiero, de inversión, legal o fiscal.🚫
Las inversiones en criptomonedas y finanzas descentralizadas (DeFi) conllevan riesgos significativos, incluida la posible pérdida total del capital invertido.⚠️
Siempre realice su propia investigación (DYOR - Do Your Own Research) 🫵🏻
Resulta que Goldman Sachs sí, los mismos que se pasaron AÑOS diciendo que las criptomonedas no eran un activo real y que el Bitcoin no tenía valor acaba de revelar que tienen MILES DE MILLONES invertidos en ETFs de Bitcoin, Ether, Solana y hasta XRP.😲
¡Qué conveniente!🙄
Primero te dicen que es "dinero de juguete" y que tengas cuidado, esperan a que los precios bajen o que el mercado esté maduro, y mientras tú dudabas, ellos estaban llenando sus bolsas en silencio. Es el colmo de la hipocresía financiera. Se burlan de la gente común mientras por detrás usan su capital institucional para adueñarse del tablero.
La pregunta no es si las criptomonedas funcionan (obviamente Goldman Sachs sabe que sí), la pregunta es:
¿Por qué seguimos escuchando a estos "expertos" que dicen una cosa y hacen exactamente lo contrario?
No se dejen engañar. El dinero inteligente ya entró, y no lo hicieron porque "cambiaron de opinión", lo hicieron porque no quieren quedarse fuera del negocio del siglo.
¿Qué opinas tú?
¿Crees que Goldman Sachs es ahora un "aliado" del sector o simplemente son los mismos lobos de siempre con piel de cordero?
👇Suelta lo que piensas en los comentarios, los leo (y nos desahogamos juntos).💥
#bitcoin #Ethereum #solana #Ripple $BTC $ETH $SOL
Descargo de Responsabilidad ⚠️
La información proporcionada en el post anterior es únicamente para fines informativos y educativos. No debe interpretarse como asesoramiento financiero, de inversión, legal o fiscal.🚫
Las inversiones en criptomonedas y finanzas descentralizadas (DeFi) conllevan riesgos significativos, incluida la posible pérdida total del capital invertido.⚠️
Siempre realice su propia investigación (DYOR - Do Your Own Research) 🫵🏻
7Pcapitales:
No te trages pero si eres inteligente hacia allá vamos 🫂🇦🇷🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊👌
Is Bitcoin dead...
⚔️ Bitcoin 2026 Deep Dive: Market, Whales, Cycles & Real Stories
1️⃣ BTC Today – Volatility but Structure Still Alive
As of February 11, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $66,900 – $67,000, down roughly 2–3% in the last 24 hours. Recent high was near $69,200 and intraday low around $66,400.
From the October 2025 ATH above $126,000, BTC is currently down nearly 47%. Historically, this type of correction is not unusual in post-halving cycles.
Key Data Snapshot:
- Market Cap: ~$1.37 Trillion - 24h Volume: $40–70B - Circulating Supply: ~19.98M BTC - BTC Dominance: ~58%
Short-term support sits around $64K–$65K. Major resistance remains $70K–$72K. A strong reclaim above resistance could shift momentum bullish again.
2️⃣ Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2026?
Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million. Major holders include:
- Satoshi Nakamoto (~1.1M BTC, dormant)
- Coinbase Custody
- BlackRock IBIT ETF
- Binance Reserves
- Fidelity Digital Assets
- MicroStrategy
- Grayscale Trust
- U.S. Government (seized BTC)
- Robinhood
- Bitfinex
Institutional accumulation is significantly stronger than previous cycles. ETFs and custodians now control a large portion of circulating supply.
3️⃣ The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle
Bitcoin historically follows halving-driven cycles:
2012 → Massive rally
2016 → Run to $20K
2020 → Run to $69K
2024 → ATH ~$126K (2025 peak)
Current drawdown (~47%) aligns with historical correction behavior. Next halving is expected in 2028.
The key question: Was $126K the cycle top, or are we mid-cycle?
4️⃣ Bitcoin Transactions: From 2009 to Lightning
First transaction: January 12, 2009 (Satoshi to Hal Finney).
First real-world purchase: May 22, 2010 – 10,000 BTC for two pizzas.
Today, the Lightning Network enables near-instant, low-fee payments. Layer-2 scaling and sidechains are expanding Bitcoin beyond store-of-value use cases.
5️⃣ Real Bitcoin Stories
- Erik Finman turned early BTC into life-changing wealth.
- Laszlo Hanyecz proved BTC had value with the famous pizza purchase.
- The Bitcoin Family went all-in and built a nomadic crypto lifestyle.
Final Thoughts
Volatility remains high. Sentiment is fragile. But institutions are here, ETFs are active, and long-term holders remain strong.
Corrections reset markets. Structure determines direction.
Are we in distribution or accumulation?
What’s your move holding, buying dips, or waiting?
$BTC
#BTC #bitcoin #crypto #BinanceSquare #Write2Earn
1️⃣ BTC Today – Volatility but Structure Still Alive
As of February 11, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $66,900 – $67,000, down roughly 2–3% in the last 24 hours. Recent high was near $69,200 and intraday low around $66,400.
From the October 2025 ATH above $126,000, BTC is currently down nearly 47%. Historically, this type of correction is not unusual in post-halving cycles.
Key Data Snapshot:
- Market Cap: ~$1.37 Trillion - 24h Volume: $40–70B - Circulating Supply: ~19.98M BTC - BTC Dominance: ~58%
Short-term support sits around $64K–$65K. Major resistance remains $70K–$72K. A strong reclaim above resistance could shift momentum bullish again.
2️⃣ Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2026?
Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million. Major holders include:
- Satoshi Nakamoto (~1.1M BTC, dormant)
- Coinbase Custody
- BlackRock IBIT ETF
- Binance Reserves
- Fidelity Digital Assets
- MicroStrategy
- Grayscale Trust
- U.S. Government (seized BTC)
- Robinhood
- Bitfinex
Institutional accumulation is significantly stronger than previous cycles. ETFs and custodians now control a large portion of circulating supply.
3️⃣ The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle
Bitcoin historically follows halving-driven cycles:
2012 → Massive rally
2016 → Run to $20K
2020 → Run to $69K
2024 → ATH ~$126K (2025 peak)
Current drawdown (~47%) aligns with historical correction behavior. Next halving is expected in 2028.
The key question: Was $126K the cycle top, or are we mid-cycle?
4️⃣ Bitcoin Transactions: From 2009 to Lightning
First transaction: January 12, 2009 (Satoshi to Hal Finney).
First real-world purchase: May 22, 2010 – 10,000 BTC for two pizzas.
Today, the Lightning Network enables near-instant, low-fee payments. Layer-2 scaling and sidechains are expanding Bitcoin beyond store-of-value use cases.
5️⃣ Real Bitcoin Stories
- Erik Finman turned early BTC into life-changing wealth.
- Laszlo Hanyecz proved BTC had value with the famous pizza purchase.
- The Bitcoin Family went all-in and built a nomadic crypto lifestyle.
Final Thoughts
Volatility remains high. Sentiment is fragile. But institutions are here, ETFs are active, and long-term holders remain strong.
Corrections reset markets. Structure determines direction.
Are we in distribution or accumulation?
What’s your move holding, buying dips, or waiting?
$BTC
#BTC #bitcoin #crypto #BinanceSquare #Write2Earn
Square-Creator-7ab0a341d5d02265d52f:
posso tá errado mais esqueçam alta por um bom tempo
🚨 Рынок на грани смены фазы: BTC держит контроль, но альтсезон может приближаться
#bitcoin #metrics
Несколько сильных метрик указывают на переломный момент в цикле — именно такие периоды часто определяют направление рынка на месяцы вперед.
— Индикатор Bitcoin Vector ранее точно обозначил ралли альтов и последующий разворот в январе. Сейчас рынок находится в BTC-цикле, но показатели постепенно смещаются в сторону альткоинов.
— В Nexo 56,2% залогового обеспечения — это BTC. Диапазон держится на уровне 54–60%, что говорит о высоком доверии к активу даже после коррекции.
— Соотношение реализованной прибыли к убыткам — 1 к 4. Это классическая фаза капитуляции после локальных вершин.
— По данным Bitwise, биткоин сейчас исторически недооценен относительно золота.
Когда BTC используют как залог вместо продажи — это признак долгосрочной уверенности, а не спекуляции. Крупные участники предпочитают брать ликвидность под биткоин, ожидая более высоких цен в будущем.
Одновременно рынок проходит “очистку”: слабые руки фиксируют убытки, а более терпеливый капитал постепенно перехватывает предложение.
— Фаза капитуляции может сопровождаться резкими выносами
— Если BTC продолжит доминировать, альты могут оставаться под давлением
— Любое ухудшение макрофона способно затянуть восстановление
Развороты почти всегда формируются в моменты, когда большинство уже разочаровано рынком. Но подтверждение тренда приходит только после возврата спроса и роста ликвидности.
Структура рынка всё больше напоминает позднюю стадию коррекции: доверие к BTC сохраняется, недооценка растет, слабые участники выходят.
Пока рано говорить о старте альтсезона — но фундамент для следующего импульса постепенно формируется.
Это не финансовый совет.
Несколько сильных метрик указывают на переломный момент в цикле — именно такие периоды часто определяют направление рынка на месяцы вперед.
— Индикатор Bitcoin Vector ранее точно обозначил ралли альтов и последующий разворот в январе. Сейчас рынок находится в BTC-цикле, но показатели постепенно смещаются в сторону альткоинов.
— В Nexo 56,2% залогового обеспечения — это BTC. Диапазон держится на уровне 54–60%, что говорит о высоком доверии к активу даже после коррекции.
— Соотношение реализованной прибыли к убыткам — 1 к 4. Это классическая фаза капитуляции после локальных вершин.
— По данным Bitwise, биткоин сейчас исторически недооценен относительно золота.
Когда BTC используют как залог вместо продажи — это признак долгосрочной уверенности, а не спекуляции. Крупные участники предпочитают брать ликвидность под биткоин, ожидая более высоких цен в будущем.
Одновременно рынок проходит “очистку”: слабые руки фиксируют убытки, а более терпеливый капитал постепенно перехватывает предложение.
— Фаза капитуляции может сопровождаться резкими выносами
— Если BTC продолжит доминировать, альты могут оставаться под давлением
— Любое ухудшение макрофона способно затянуть восстановление
Развороты почти всегда формируются в моменты, когда большинство уже разочаровано рынком. Но подтверждение тренда приходит только после возврата спроса и роста ликвидности.
Структура рынка всё больше напоминает позднюю стадию коррекции: доверие к BTC сохраняется, недооценка растет, слабые участники выходят.
Пока рано говорить о старте альтсезона — но фундамент для следующего импульса постепенно формируется.
Это не финансовый совет.
RealzRock:
Такое чувство что вчера только узнал о крипте, какой альтсезон😁
🚨 TRADE SIGNAL: $BTC
Bias: Bearish / Sell the Rip 🔴$ETH
🚪 Entry: 69,500 - 70,200 (Resistance retest)
🎯 TPs: 68,200 - 66,500 - 64,800 $XRP
🛑 SL: 71,400
💡 Logic: BTC is showing weakness after failing to reclaim the psychological $70,000 level. Momentum indicators (RSI) on the 4H chart are resetting lower. The "Tuesday Slide" is in effect, and the path of least resistance is a revisit of the $65k - $66k demand zone before any meaningful bounce.
#BTC #bitcoin #USRetailSalesMissForecast #USTechFundFlows #WhaleDeRiskETH
Bias: Bearish / Sell the Rip 🔴$ETH
🚪 Entry: 69,500 - 70,200 (Resistance retest)
🎯 TPs: 68,200 - 66,500 - 64,800 $XRP
🛑 SL: 71,400
💡 Logic: BTC is showing weakness after failing to reclaim the psychological $70,000 level. Momentum indicators (RSI) on the 4H chart are resetting lower. The "Tuesday Slide" is in effect, and the path of least resistance is a revisit of the $65k - $66k demand zone before any meaningful bounce.
#BTC #bitcoin #USRetailSalesMissForecast #USTechFundFlows #WhaleDeRiskETH
🔴 JOE LUBIN WARNS OF $BTC QUANTUM RISK
Joe Lubin said #bitcoin could face an existential problem, alluding to Q Day, when encryption could be challenged by quantum computers.
He added that it’s reasonable to worry about this risk, even if that day isn’t here yet.
#USRetailSalesMissForecast
Joe Lubin said #bitcoin could face an existential problem, alluding to Q Day, when encryption could be challenged by quantum computers.
He added that it’s reasonable to worry about this risk, even if that day isn’t here yet.
#USRetailSalesMissForecast
De pana... ¿Ustedes están durmiendo tranquilos con esta caída? 📉👀
Chicos, me puse a ver el gráfico de Bitcoin hace un rato y ver esos $68,800 me dio un frío en el estómago. 🥶 Sé que muchos aquí en Venezuela 🇻🇪 estamos metidos en esto para salir adelante, y ver que el mercado se pone así de "loco" de un momento a otro estresa a cualquiera.$BTC
Todo el mundo anda hablando de #WhenWillBTCRebound, pero la verdad es que nadie tiene una bola de cristal. Yo ahorita prefiero mil veces tener mi paz mental (y mis ahorros en USDT) que estar pegada a la pantalla sufriendo por cada velita roja. 🕯️❌
¿Soy la única que siente que a veces es mejor dar un paso atrás y esperar que las aguas se calmen?
👇 Cuéntenme aquí abajo: ¿Cómo están los nervios hoy?
¿Compraron más o están viendo los toros desde la barrera? Los leo para no sentirme sola en este pánico jajaja. 💬👇
#BinanceSquareBTC #venezuela #bitcoin #trading #Cripto
Chicos, me puse a ver el gráfico de Bitcoin hace un rato y ver esos $68,800 me dio un frío en el estómago. 🥶 Sé que muchos aquí en Venezuela 🇻🇪 estamos metidos en esto para salir adelante, y ver que el mercado se pone así de "loco" de un momento a otro estresa a cualquiera.$BTC
Todo el mundo anda hablando de #WhenWillBTCRebound, pero la verdad es que nadie tiene una bola de cristal. Yo ahorita prefiero mil veces tener mi paz mental (y mis ahorros en USDT) que estar pegada a la pantalla sufriendo por cada velita roja. 🕯️❌
¿Soy la única que siente que a veces es mejor dar un paso atrás y esperar que las aguas se calmen?
👇 Cuéntenme aquí abajo: ¿Cómo están los nervios hoy?
¿Compraron más o están viendo los toros desde la barrera? Los leo para no sentirme sola en este pánico jajaja. 💬👇
#BinanceSquareBTC #venezuela #bitcoin #trading #Cripto
Alline Minero Z0kh:
soy el único q vió la insignia de gémini???
Создатель российского закона о криптовалютах заявил, что биткоин «рано или поздно рухнет»
Автор новости: Crypto Emergency
Анатолий Аксаков, председатель Комитета Госдумы по финансовым рынкам и один из ключевых авторов российского регулирования криптовалют, сделал резкое заявление о будущем биткоина. По его словам, BTC «рано или поздно рухнет», поскольку не имеет материального обеспечения и основан на спекулятивном интересе.
«Криптовалюта ни на чём не основана» — Аксаков
В интервью «Газете российского парламента» Аксаков прокомментировал мнение экспертов, которые допускают падение биткоина до $40 000 в следующем году. Он подчеркнул, что всегда относился к криптовалютам с осторожностью:
«Криптовалюта, по сути, ни на чём не основана. Это ажиотаж, возникший из интереса людей к компьютерам и идее зарабатывать, подключаясь к электросети. Согласно законам экономики, рано или поздно ей суждено рухнуть».
Россия усиливает регулирование крипторынка
Несмотря на скепсис Аксакова, государство активно развивает нормативную базу. Объём крипторынка в России оценивается более чем в $13 млрд, и власти готовят новый закон о майнинге.
Проект предусматривает:
• легализацию майнинга для компаний, соблюдающих требования,
• регулирование криптобирж,
• возможность для банков предоставлять услуги по торговле криптовалютами,
• санкции за незаконный майнинг и нелегальный оборот цифровых активов.
Ранее Минюст предлагал уголовную ответственность для майнеров, уклоняющихся от уплаты налогов.
Правила добычи криптовалюты в России
С 2024 года гражданам разрешено добывать криптовалюту, если их потребление электроэнергии не превышает 6000 кВт·ч в месяц. В регионах с дефицитом энергии майнинг запрещён до 2031 года.
«Рынок слишком волатилен»
Аксаков отметил, что криптовалютный рынок остаётся крайне непредсказуемым:
• движение цен зависит от субъективных факторов,
• колебания невозможно контролировать,
• криптовалюты не подходят тем, кто ищет стабильный способ заработка.
«Если вы хотите заработать деньги, это не лучший рынок. Независимо от уровня квалификации, колебания неконтролируемы», — заявил он.
#bitcoin #BTC #CryptoNews #РоссияКрипта #майнинг
Анатолий Аксаков, председатель Комитета Госдумы по финансовым рынкам и один из ключевых авторов российского регулирования криптовалют, сделал резкое заявление о будущем биткоина. По его словам, BTC «рано или поздно рухнет», поскольку не имеет материального обеспечения и основан на спекулятивном интересе.
«Криптовалюта ни на чём не основана» — Аксаков
В интервью «Газете российского парламента» Аксаков прокомментировал мнение экспертов, которые допускают падение биткоина до $40 000 в следующем году. Он подчеркнул, что всегда относился к криптовалютам с осторожностью:
«Криптовалюта, по сути, ни на чём не основана. Это ажиотаж, возникший из интереса людей к компьютерам и идее зарабатывать, подключаясь к электросети. Согласно законам экономики, рано или поздно ей суждено рухнуть».
Россия усиливает регулирование крипторынка
Несмотря на скепсис Аксакова, государство активно развивает нормативную базу. Объём крипторынка в России оценивается более чем в $13 млрд, и власти готовят новый закон о майнинге.
Проект предусматривает:
• легализацию майнинга для компаний, соблюдающих требования,
• регулирование криптобирж,
• возможность для банков предоставлять услуги по торговле криптовалютами,
• санкции за незаконный майнинг и нелегальный оборот цифровых активов.
Ранее Минюст предлагал уголовную ответственность для майнеров, уклоняющихся от уплаты налогов.
Правила добычи криптовалюты в России
С 2024 года гражданам разрешено добывать криптовалюту, если их потребление электроэнергии не превышает 6000 кВт·ч в месяц. В регионах с дефицитом энергии майнинг запрещён до 2031 года.
«Рынок слишком волатилен»
Аксаков отметил, что криптовалютный рынок остаётся крайне непредсказуемым:
• движение цен зависит от субъективных факторов,
• колебания невозможно контролировать,
• криптовалюты не подходят тем, кто ищет стабильный способ заработка.
«Если вы хотите заработать деньги, это не лучший рынок. Независимо от уровня квалификации, колебания неконтролируемы», — заявил он.
#bitcoin #BTC #CryptoNews #РоссияКрипта #майнинг
Prowler71:
У всего есть начало и конец. Но заявил об этом пердун - долбоеб.
🚨 BTC REAL-TIME UPDATE $BTC
Current Price: ~$66,795 📉$ETH
Trend: Bearish (Down 4.3% today)$SOL
Setup:
Entry: $67,300 - $68,000 (Short the retest of the broken 200W EMA)
Target: $63,800 | $60,200 (Psychological floor)
Stop Loss: $69,100
Data Logic:
BTC just broke the critical $68K support (200-week EMA) after strong US jobs data boosted the Dollar. Momentum is sharply negative (RSI < 30). With bulls failing to reclaim $69K, the path to the $60K liquidity zone is open.
#BTC #bitcoin #ETH
Current Price: ~$66,795 📉$ETH
Trend: Bearish (Down 4.3% today)$SOL
Setup:
Entry: $67,300 - $68,000 (Short the retest of the broken 200W EMA)
Target: $63,800 | $60,200 (Psychological floor)
Stop Loss: $69,100
Data Logic:
BTC just broke the critical $68K support (200-week EMA) after strong US jobs data boosted the Dollar. Momentum is sharply negative (RSI < 30). With bulls failing to reclaim $69K, the path to the $60K liquidity zone is open.
#BTC #bitcoin #ETH
𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝗗𝗿𝗼𝗽 𝘁𝗼 $48K? 𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 𝗜𝘀 𝗦𝗲𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗴 👇
Kalshi prediction market traders are now pricing a scenario where Bitcoin could revisit $48,000 before year end.
This is not random fear. This is capital-backed conviction.
𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴?
• ETF inflows have slowed compared to earlier momentum phases.
• Spot volumes are cooling.
• Funding rates are unstable.
• Liquidation clusters are building below current price.
• Macro liquidity remains tight.
This is not panic.
𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴.
When regulated platforms like Kalshi price in $48K, they are reflecting structured risk analysis, not Twitter emotion.
Now the important question —
𝗜𝗳 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗼𝘂𝗰𝗵𝗲𝘀 $48𝗞, 𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘁 𝗰𝗿𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆?
Historically, major psychological levels often act as strong accumulation zones.
Liquidity sweeps shake out weak hands.
Institutions wait for discounted entries.
Remember:
𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀.
Short term fear can build long term structure.
What to watch next:
• ETF flow data
• Central bank liquidity signals
• Derivatives positioning
• Reaction at $50K–$48K support zone
If buying volume explodes near support → Bearish narrative invalidated.
If support breaks with volume → Deeper correction possible.
Right now, the market is not euphoric.
𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻.
And uncertainty is where smart positioning begins.
Are you preparing emotionally…
or strategically? 🧠📊
#bitcoin #CryptoMarkets
Kalshi prediction market traders are now pricing a scenario where Bitcoin could revisit $48,000 before year end.
This is not random fear. This is capital-backed conviction.
𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴?
• ETF inflows have slowed compared to earlier momentum phases.
• Spot volumes are cooling.
• Funding rates are unstable.
• Liquidation clusters are building below current price.
• Macro liquidity remains tight.
This is not panic.
𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴.
When regulated platforms like Kalshi price in $48K, they are reflecting structured risk analysis, not Twitter emotion.
Now the important question —
𝗜𝗳 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗼𝘂𝗰𝗵𝗲𝘀 $48𝗞, 𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘁 𝗰𝗿𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆?
Historically, major psychological levels often act as strong accumulation zones.
Liquidity sweeps shake out weak hands.
Institutions wait for discounted entries.
Remember:
𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀.
Short term fear can build long term structure.
What to watch next:
• ETF flow data
• Central bank liquidity signals
• Derivatives positioning
• Reaction at $50K–$48K support zone
If buying volume explodes near support → Bearish narrative invalidated.
If support breaks with volume → Deeper correction possible.
Right now, the market is not euphoric.
𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻.
And uncertainty is where smart positioning begins.
Are you preparing emotionally…
or strategically? 🧠📊
#bitcoin #CryptoMarkets
BOBBERs:
Not possible Mr jangra 😊 because year end is elections the first Tuesday in November hope you got the point 😉😉
BTC Stuck at $70K Resistance — Why Is the Entire Market Crashing?
$BTC inability to convincingly break and hold above the ~$70,000 zone has put pressure on broader crypto market structure, and the reasons go beyond simple price levels:
First, resistance isn’t just a number — it’s where liquidity clusters and positioning is heaviest. Around $70K, there’s a major high-volume node from prior trading and a psychological threshold that prompts profit-taking. When BTC repeatedly fails to close above this zone with strong volume, it signals to many participants that demand is not yet sufficient to drive the next leg up.
Second, the broader market is still absorbing macroeconomic stress. Risk assets — crypto included — have been tied to wider sentiment around interest rate expectations, equities volatility, and capital flows. When traditional risk assets weaken, crypto often leads the downside because it’s a higher-beta space with more leveraged participants.
Third, liquidations and leverage unwinding exacerbate downturns. As BTC struggled at resistance, short-term traders who bought suppressed highs saw leverage erode, triggering forced exits and amplifying selling pressure. That pressure radiates outward — altcoins and memecoins tend to bleed harder than BTC because they have lower liquidity and higher speculative positioning.
Fourth, on-chain metrics show that long-term holders are not capitulating in droves. Supply on exchanges remains elevated relative to longer cycles, suggesting that the crash is driven more by position reshuffling and fear of missing liquidity rather than structural breakdown of conviction.
Finally, markets crash when fear outweighs belief in the near term. Technical breakdowns create self-fulfilling moves — once key supports are violated, weak holders exit, stops cascade, and sentiment turns negative. This doesn’t mean the cycle is over; it means the market is processing risk differently than it was when BTC was grinding sideways above key supports.
In short:
BTC failing at $70K matters because it signals a pause in demand versus supply at a major liquidity layer. The broader market often follows because BTC is the reference asset — when it struggles, speculative capital rotates out or gets squeezed. Crashes aren’t just price mechanics — they are behavior mechanics.
If price stabilizes above major supply clusters and macro risk appetite improves, the market can recover. If not, we remain in a corrective phase until clear structural validation returns.
#btc70k #bitcoin
First, resistance isn’t just a number — it’s where liquidity clusters and positioning is heaviest. Around $70K, there’s a major high-volume node from prior trading and a psychological threshold that prompts profit-taking. When BTC repeatedly fails to close above this zone with strong volume, it signals to many participants that demand is not yet sufficient to drive the next leg up.
Second, the broader market is still absorbing macroeconomic stress. Risk assets — crypto included — have been tied to wider sentiment around interest rate expectations, equities volatility, and capital flows. When traditional risk assets weaken, crypto often leads the downside because it’s a higher-beta space with more leveraged participants.
Third, liquidations and leverage unwinding exacerbate downturns. As BTC struggled at resistance, short-term traders who bought suppressed highs saw leverage erode, triggering forced exits and amplifying selling pressure. That pressure radiates outward — altcoins and memecoins tend to bleed harder than BTC because they have lower liquidity and higher speculative positioning.
Fourth, on-chain metrics show that long-term holders are not capitulating in droves. Supply on exchanges remains elevated relative to longer cycles, suggesting that the crash is driven more by position reshuffling and fear of missing liquidity rather than structural breakdown of conviction.
Finally, markets crash when fear outweighs belief in the near term. Technical breakdowns create self-fulfilling moves — once key supports are violated, weak holders exit, stops cascade, and sentiment turns negative. This doesn’t mean the cycle is over; it means the market is processing risk differently than it was when BTC was grinding sideways above key supports.
In short:
BTC failing at $70K matters because it signals a pause in demand versus supply at a major liquidity layer. The broader market often follows because BTC is the reference asset — when it struggles, speculative capital rotates out or gets squeezed. Crashes aren’t just price mechanics — they are behavior mechanics.
If price stabilizes above major supply clusters and macro risk appetite improves, the market can recover. If not, we remain in a corrective phase until clear structural validation returns.
#btc70k #bitcoin
POMP: THIS IS THE STRONGEST “DRAWDOWN” WE’VE SEEN
Anthony Pompliano says something that doesn’t feel true… but the data backs it up.
From peak to now, this is the least severe major pullback #Bitcoin has ever had.
It doesn’t feel calm when $BTC drops 10% in a day. But zoom out -- volatility has compressed from an 80-vol asset to roughly 40-vol. That’s a structural shift.
ETFs and new instruments changed the game. Bitcoin isn’t just held forever anymore -- it’s actively traded. That means more two-way flow and more realistic price discovery.
#bitcoin $BTC
Anthony Pompliano says something that doesn’t feel true… but the data backs it up.
From peak to now, this is the least severe major pullback #Bitcoin has ever had.
It doesn’t feel calm when $BTC drops 10% in a day. But zoom out -- volatility has compressed from an 80-vol asset to roughly 40-vol. That’s a structural shift.
ETFs and new instruments changed the game. Bitcoin isn’t just held forever anymore -- it’s actively traded. That means more two-way flow and more realistic price discovery.
#bitcoin $BTC
Pair: BTC/USDT
Direction: Long (Buy) – Dip Buy
Entry: $65,800 – $66,200
Stop Loss: $64,200
Take Profit: $70,000 → $71,000 → $72,000+
Risk: 1% max
Reason: $68K support zone hold + bounce possible
$BTC
$BTC $BNB
#BTC #bitcoin #Write2Earn #BinanceSquare #BinanceSquareFamily
Direction: Long (Buy) – Dip Buy
Entry: $65,800 – $66,200
Stop Loss: $64,200
Take Profit: $70,000 → $71,000 → $72,000+
Risk: 1% max
Reason: $68K support zone hold + bounce possible
$BTC
$BTC $BNB
#BTC #bitcoin #Write2Earn #BinanceSquare #BinanceSquareFamily
🚨 LỊCH SỬ BTC BỊ PHÁ VỠ: LẦN ĐẦU TIÊN THÁNG 1 + THÁNG 2 ĐỀU ĐỎ TRONG CÙNG MỘT NĂM?
Dữ liệu hàng chục năm cho thấy một quy luật gần như “bất di bất dịch”:
Bitcoin chưa bao giờ đóng cửa âm cả tháng 1 lẫn tháng 2 trong cùng một năm!
🔶 Tháng 1 thường là “tháng khởi động” tích cực (trung bình +2.81%, median +0.29%).
🔶 Tháng 2 còn mạnh hơn (trung bình +11.27%, median +11.68%) – thường là tháng xanh đậm nhất đầu năm.
Nhưng năm 2026 đang phá vỡ mọi quy tắc:
🔴 Tháng 1/2026: -10.17%
🔴 Tháng 2/2026 (đang diễn ra): -12.72% (vẫn đỏ, và tháng chưa kết thúc!)
Đây là lần đầu tiên trong lịch sử BTC, cả hai tháng đầu năm đều âm – một kịch bản cực kỳ hiếm và khác biệt so với mọi chu kỳ trước.
Ý nghĩa:
🔶 Có thể báo hiệu bear market kéo dài hoặc “reset” sâu hơn dự kiến.
🔶 Hoặc đây là “cú rũ bỏ cuối” trước khi đảo chiều mạnh (như nhiều năm lịch sử sau dip đầu năm).
Bạn nghĩ sao về hiện tượng này? 2026 sẽ là năm “khác người” thật sự? Hay chỉ là dip tạm thời, chờ rebound mạnh?
Comment dự đoán của bạn bên dưới nhé, tag bạn bè trader để cùng phân tích!
#bitcoin #BTC #CryptoHistory #BinanceSquare
$BTC $BNB $SOL
Bitcoin chưa bao giờ đóng cửa âm cả tháng 1 lẫn tháng 2 trong cùng một năm!
🔶 Tháng 1 thường là “tháng khởi động” tích cực (trung bình +2.81%, median +0.29%).
🔶 Tháng 2 còn mạnh hơn (trung bình +11.27%, median +11.68%) – thường là tháng xanh đậm nhất đầu năm.
Nhưng năm 2026 đang phá vỡ mọi quy tắc:
🔴 Tháng 1/2026: -10.17%
🔴 Tháng 2/2026 (đang diễn ra): -12.72% (vẫn đỏ, và tháng chưa kết thúc!)
Đây là lần đầu tiên trong lịch sử BTC, cả hai tháng đầu năm đều âm – một kịch bản cực kỳ hiếm và khác biệt so với mọi chu kỳ trước.
Ý nghĩa:
🔶 Có thể báo hiệu bear market kéo dài hoặc “reset” sâu hơn dự kiến.
🔶 Hoặc đây là “cú rũ bỏ cuối” trước khi đảo chiều mạnh (như nhiều năm lịch sử sau dip đầu năm).
Bạn nghĩ sao về hiện tượng này? 2026 sẽ là năm “khác người” thật sự? Hay chỉ là dip tạm thời, chờ rebound mạnh?
Comment dự đoán của bạn bên dưới nhé, tag bạn bè trader để cùng phân tích!
#bitcoin #BTC #CryptoHistory #BinanceSquare
$BTC $BNB $SOL
Binance BiBi:
Hey there! That's a great piece of analysis. My search suggests you're right, it seems this is the first time in BTC's history for both Jan & Feb to be in the red. As of 14:57 UTC, BTC is at $68,449.99 (-1.17% 24h). Definitely a rare event! Remember to always DYOR. Hope this helps
Rebote del "Gato Muerto"?
#bitcoin se desinfla mientras el empleo en EE. UU. noquea las esperanzas de la #Fed
El espejismo de los $72.000, tras una amaga recuperación del 20% el pasado viernes, Bitcoin ha vuelto a desplomarse por debajo de los $66.000.
Los analistas advierten que la subida fue un "rebote de gato muerto", carente de convicción, que ha arrastrado también a #Ethereum , #solana y #xrp en caídas de más del 5.5%.
El "Efecto Empleo" paraliza a la Fed: El informe de enero en EE. UU. (130.000 nuevos empleos, el doble de lo previsto) ha enfriado las expectativas de recortes de tipos de interés. La probabilidad de una flexibilización en marzo se ha hundido del 21% al 6%, manteniendo el dólar fuerte y castigando a los activos de riesgo.
Fuga de capitales hacia el mercado tradicional: El interés de los inversores se está evaporando. Mientras el interés abierto en futuros de Bitcoin ha caído un 51% desde su pico en octubre de 2025, mercados bursátiles como el Kospi surcoreano viven un auge sin precedentes, absorbiendo el capital minorista que huye del estancamiento cripto.
Sangría en las acciones del sector: El pesimismo es sistémico. Robinhood (HOOD) lidera las pérdidas con un desplome del -12.14% tras reportar ingresos mediocres en trading cripto, contagiando a gigantes como Coinbase (-7.72%) y Strategy (-4.8%).
Refugios alternativos: En un giro clásico de manual financiero, mientras las criptomonedas flaquean y las acciones se estancan, los metales preciosos ganan terreno: el oro subió un 4.55% y la plata se disparó un 3.2% en la jornada.
$SOL
$XRP
$MSTR
#bitcoin se desinfla mientras el empleo en EE. UU. noquea las esperanzas de la #Fed
El espejismo de los $72.000, tras una amaga recuperación del 20% el pasado viernes, Bitcoin ha vuelto a desplomarse por debajo de los $66.000.
Los analistas advierten que la subida fue un "rebote de gato muerto", carente de convicción, que ha arrastrado también a #Ethereum , #solana y #xrp en caídas de más del 5.5%.
El "Efecto Empleo" paraliza a la Fed: El informe de enero en EE. UU. (130.000 nuevos empleos, el doble de lo previsto) ha enfriado las expectativas de recortes de tipos de interés. La probabilidad de una flexibilización en marzo se ha hundido del 21% al 6%, manteniendo el dólar fuerte y castigando a los activos de riesgo.
Fuga de capitales hacia el mercado tradicional: El interés de los inversores se está evaporando. Mientras el interés abierto en futuros de Bitcoin ha caído un 51% desde su pico en octubre de 2025, mercados bursátiles como el Kospi surcoreano viven un auge sin precedentes, absorbiendo el capital minorista que huye del estancamiento cripto.
Sangría en las acciones del sector: El pesimismo es sistémico. Robinhood (HOOD) lidera las pérdidas con un desplome del -12.14% tras reportar ingresos mediocres en trading cripto, contagiando a gigantes como Coinbase (-7.72%) y Strategy (-4.8%).
Refugios alternativos: En un giro clásico de manual financiero, mientras las criptomonedas flaquean y las acciones se estancan, los metales preciosos ganan terreno: el oro subió un 4.55% y la plata se disparó un 3.2% en la jornada.
$SOL
$XRP
$MSTR
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