bitcoin

let's talk about something most crypto people don't want to admit: bitcoin might have already won its biggest battle and lost its biggest opportunity at the same time.
the uncomfortable truth about bitcoin's next 10x
in my view, bitcoin no longer has the potential to increase in value by 1,000x, 100x, or even 10x. i know that sounds bearish, but hear me out.
fifteen years ago, bitcoin emerged at the perfect moment right after the 2008 financial crisis when trust in governments, banks, and fiat currencies was at historic lows. remember occupy wall street? the tea party? that was real rage. bitcoin offered something different: decentralized, scarce, and completely outside the traditional financial system.
back then, the extreme volatility (70% to 90% drawdowns, multiple times) was tolerable because it was always followed by 5x, 10x, sometimes even 100x rallies. much of this growth was driven by waves of new, highly leveraged investors attracted by returns that were literally impossible to find in traditional assets.
the discovery phase is over
today, bitcoin is widely known. your parents have heard of it. your barber has an opinion on it. that one friend who still uses a flip phone? yeah, they know what bitcoin is too.
this dramatically reduces the likelihood of massive new inflows purely from discovery. the "wait until people find out about this" narrative is dead. people found out. they either bought in or decided not to.
at the same time, investors seeking speculative upside now have alternatives: gold, silver, tech stocks like tesla, or other high-risk assets that offer more stability while satisfying the same appetite for outsized gains.
we got what we asked for (and it killed the dream)
here's the paradox that nobody wants to acknowledge:
bitcoin spent years fighting for mainstream institutional and governmental acceptance. that day has arrived.
etfs exist ✓banks offer exposure ✓regulators have frameworks ✓institutions are accumulating ✓
yet this acceptance has not translated into widespread use as a medium of exchange for goods and services. instead, financialization has deepened.
large institutions can now trade "paper bitcoin" through derivatives, potentially expanding synthetic supply through futures and short selling. the original scarcity narrative — the thing that made bitcoin special — gets diluted within the modern financial system.
"we wanted wall street to accept bitcoin. they did. then they turned it into another tradfi product."
~ every og bitcoiner, probably
so what's the path forward?
i struggle to see a clear trajectory for bitcoin under its current setup. the explosive growth phase was fueled by:
novelty (now gone)distrust in traditional systems (institutions co-opted it)extreme volatility cycles (being smoothed out by institutional participation)
now that bitcoin is widely known, institutionalized, and deeply integrated into mainstream finance, the asymmetric upside that defined its early years appears structurally harder to repeat.
the one scenario that could change everything
one potential catalyst would be genuine, large-scale adoption as a unit of account for globally traded commodities — oil, gas, strategic resources.
if major exporters began pricing and settling contracts in #bitcoin , demand would shift from speculative to transactional. that would represent a structural transformation, not just another hype cycle.
however, this would require:
geopolitical realignmentsovereign-level coordinationprice stability (the irony)
and here's where it gets really interesting...
the cruel irony: legitimacy kills volatility
paradoxically, if bitcoin achieved that level of real-economy integration, investors would have to say goodbye to the volatility that historically drove outsized returns.
a currency used for large-scale commodity settlement cannot swing 20-30% in a week without creating systemic risk. stability would become a feature, not a bug.
and while stability could validate bitcoin as infrastructure, it would also kill its appeal as a high-beta speculative asset.
in that scenario, bitcoin might mature into a low-volatility settlement layer — valuable, sure, but unlikely to deliver the exponential gains that early adopters experienced.
the identity crisis
this is bitcoin's real problem in 2026:
is it:
digital gold? (then it competes with actual gold)a payments network? (then it competes with visa/mastercard)a speculative asset? (then it competes with tech stocks)global reserve currency? (then it needs stability, killing returns)
it can't be all of these things simultaneously. and trying to be everything to everyone might mean it ends up being nothing special to anyone.
what this means for crypto broadly
if bitcoin — the flagship, the original, the most trusted — is facing this identity crisis, what does that mean for the rest of crypto?
defi promised to replace banks. instead, it became a casino.
nfts promised digital ownership. instead, they became jpgs of monkeys.
web3 promised decentralization. instead, it became vc-funded startups with tokens.
the pattern is clear: crypto gets absorbed by the system it was supposed to replace, then loses the properties that made it interesting in the first place.
the uncomfortable question
in short, the path to legitimacy and the path to extraordinary returns may no longer be the same path.
and as a result, i'm genuinely not sure what purpose bitcoin and crypto serve today beyond being another asset class for speculation.
maybe that's enough. maybe being "just another tradeable asset" is the final form.
but if that's the case, we should stop pretending it's revolutionary and just call it what it is: a speculative tech stock with better branding.
#RiskAssetsMarketShock $BTC

This is the Bitcoin Situation for the Next 3 Years

Since last August I warned that the $108,000 level could not be lost in Bitcoin or else we entered a bearish cycle and it was going to be hard.

I am not a guru nor do I have a crystal ball.

But I try to get informed and I dedicate a lot of time to understanding what a Halving is. I understand mining costs. I understand staking. I understand leverage.

But above all we need to understand how all this leads us to CYCLES.

This chart is very powerful for understanding Bitcoin.

Each line is a cycle since its Halving. This event happens every 4 years.

The first cycle (the blue one) made the high somewhat earlier but the following cycles have made their highs at the same moment. All the lows have happened one year after reaching this high.

This last cycle (the strong yellow one) looks smaller and this is not a coincidence. Notice that each cycle is smaller than the previous one.

And this makes sense.

Bitcoin cycles are INFLATIONARY AND LOGARITHMIC.

Inflationary and logarithmic?

This is vital. Let me translate it for you.

Bitcoin should follow inflation because it is a finite asset like gold or real estate in certain areas.

Easy but logarithmic?

This is something you can't IGNORE anymore.

🤔 Bitcoin cycles go up less every time.

One reason is that the more an asset capitalizes the more it costs to keep it going up. Money in the world is finite and therefore when something capitalizes billions it starts to be complicated to make it grow in a faster rate than inflation.

But you must also know that in the Halvings the rewards to miners are reduced.

At the beginning this meant a beastly reduction of many BTCs which drove the price very high. But now the reward is barely reduced by 3 or 1 BTC so the price cannot rise at the same pace.

If we pay attention to previous cycles Bitcoin will keep falling in 2026 until the end of the year before starting a recovery. This is the most likely scenario right now.

So much for Bitcoin theory so let us go to the practical part.

🚀 Where will this low happen?

I do not know and nobody knows but we have clues.

In each of the cycles we have seen the price retreat from highs.

And a lot.

The first cycle down 85%
The second down 80%
The third down 75%

And now?

Maybe 70%? It could be. It is just an approximation.

This last drop to $60,000 is already a great milestone as the price has corrected 50% but in previous cycles we see that the best is still to come. It can fall another 50% down to $30k or $40k to meet the levels close to 70% correction which would seem plausible based on previous behavior.

In terms of price it seems there is a gap to fill and in terms of time it is even better.

Correction time of first cycle is 12 months
Correction time of second cycle is 12 months
Correction time of third cycle is 12 months

If this fourth cycle lasts the same as the previous ones we will be talking about seeing the moment of maximum pain in October 2026.

That is the moment where we will all say that $BTC is going to 0.

Who knows.

But, if we start accumulating in the $60k zone and save some money for the $30-40k area, we could easily average a $50k position during 2026.

After three years we should be at the next cycle peak which following a logarithmic progression could be somewhat higher than these last $120k (current cycle peak).

Let us assume $150k. (Which is a number I get from the serie of previous rallies, but there is too much math for today)

We are talking about selling the investment for triple the price in 3 years. That is a return that is not bad at all.

The risk is total. I go without a Stop Loss. It is aspirational investment and in no case is it capital protection.

And while we wait for the price to reach the right zone to keep buying, you could also make a quick trade to catch the next 10% rally.

👇 WANT MORE?

🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic

Most traders won’t catch this at first glance, but on the weekly timeframe, $BTC is moving in a rhythm we’ve seen before. It looks messy zoomed in. Zoom out — and the structure tells a much clearer story.
Bitcoin historically rotates through phases: impulse → consolidation → impulse → exhaustion.
The last major leg up had all the late-cycle characteristics — aggressive expansion, shallow pullbacks, relentless continuation. That kind of behavior typically shows up closer to cycle tops than fresh beginnings.
Now the character has shifted.
We’re seeing:
• Lower highs beginning to stack
• Price compressing inside a tightening range
• Volatility cooling off
• Momentum losing its clean follow-through
The waves are still there — but they’re no longer impulsive. They hesitate. They stall. Structurally, that leans more toward distribution than fresh accumulation.
If history offers guidance, $BTC may need more time to reset expectations. That could mean extended sideways action. It could also mean one deeper corrective leg to properly clear positioning before any sustainable expansion resumes.
A true bullish shift won’t be subtle. It will look like:
Strong impulse legs
Followed by continuation
Not hesitation
Until that structure reappears, this remains a patience environment — not a prediction environment.
Watch behavior. Not hope.
#bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis

⚔️ Bitcoin 2026 Deep Dive: Market, Whales, Cycles & Real Stories

1️⃣ BTC Today – Volatility but Structure Still Alive

As of February 11, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $66,900 – $67,000, down roughly 2–3% in the last 24 hours. Recent high was near $69,200 and intraday low around $66,400.

From the October 2025 ATH above $126,000, BTC is currently down nearly 47%. Historically, this type of correction is not unusual in post-halving cycles.

Key Data Snapshot:
- Market Cap: ~$1.37 Trillion - 24h Volume: $40–70B - Circulating Supply: ~19.98M BTC - BTC Dominance: ~58%
Short-term support sits around $64K–$65K. Major resistance remains $70K–$72K. A strong reclaim above resistance could shift momentum bullish again.

2️⃣ Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2026?

Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million. Major holders include:

- Satoshi Nakamoto (~1.1M BTC, dormant)
- Coinbase Custody
- BlackRock IBIT ETF
- Binance Reserves
- Fidelity Digital Assets
- MicroStrategy
- Grayscale Trust
- U.S. Government (seized BTC)
- Robinhood
- Bitfinex

Institutional accumulation is significantly stronger than previous cycles. ETFs and custodians now control a large portion of circulating supply.

3️⃣ The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle

Bitcoin historically follows halving-driven cycles:

2012 → Massive rally
2016 → Run to $20K
2020 → Run to $69K
2024 → ATH ~$126K (2025 peak)

Current drawdown (~47%) aligns with historical correction behavior. Next halving is expected in 2028.

The key question: Was $126K the cycle top, or are we mid-cycle?

4️⃣ Bitcoin Transactions: From 2009 to Lightning

First transaction: January 12, 2009 (Satoshi to Hal Finney).
First real-world purchase: May 22, 2010 – 10,000 BTC for two pizzas.

Today, the Lightning Network enables near-instant, low-fee payments. Layer-2 scaling and sidechains are expanding Bitcoin beyond store-of-value use cases.

5️⃣ Real Bitcoin Stories

- Erik Finman turned early BTC into life-changing wealth.
- Laszlo Hanyecz proved BTC had value with the famous pizza purchase.
- The Bitcoin Family went all-in and built a nomadic crypto lifestyle.

Final Thoughts

Volatility remains high. Sentiment is fragile. But institutions are here, ETFs are active, and long-term holders remain strong.

Corrections reset markets. Structure determines direction.

Are we in distribution or accumulation?

What’s your move holding, buying dips, or waiting?
$BTC
#BTC #bitcoin #crypto #BinanceSquare #Write2Earn

Most people won’t notice this, but on the weekly chart, $BTC is printing a very familiar rhythm. At first glance it looks random and directionless, almost messy. But when you zoom out and study the structure carefully, it’s far from chaotic.
Bitcoin tends to move in repeating phases: impulse → pause → impulse → exhaustion. The previous leg up was classic late-cycle behavior strong expansion, shallow pullbacks, and continuation after continuation.
That type of price action usually appears near the end of a cycle, not at the beginning. When upside momentum gets fully consumed, the market shifts its character.
What we’re seeing now is different. Lower highs are forming, price is compressing in a relatively tight range, and volatility is drying up. The waves still exist, but they’re no longer clean or impulsive like before. Structurally, this leans more toward distribution than fresh accumulation.
If previous cycles are any guide, #BTC may need more time to reset. That could mean extended sideways action, or even one deeper corrective move to properly shake out positioning before a true new expansion phase begins.
I’ll only turn structurally bullish again when price starts trending with clarity when impulse legs are followed by strong continuation, not hesitation. Until then, patience matters more than prediction.
#bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis

Bitcoin’s double-digit rebound and brief trading above $72,000 may confirm $60,000 was the bottom, but data shows top traders are refusing to open longs.
Key takeaways:
The Bitcoin long-to-short indicator at Binance hit a 30-day low, signaling a sharp decline in bullish leverage demand.US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds reversed a negative trend with $516 million in net inflows following a period of heavy liquidations.
$BTC $67,507  has fluctuated within a tight 8% range over the last four days, consolidating near $69,000 after an abrupt slide to $60,130 on Friday. Traders are currently grappling with the primary catalysts for this correction, particularly as the S&P 500 holds near record highs and gold prices have climbed 20% over a two-month period.
The uncertainty following the 52% retreat from Bitcoin’s $126,220 all-time high in October 2025 has likely prompted an ultra-skeptical stance among top traders, stoking concerns of further price declines.

Whales and market makers on Binance have steadily pared back bullish exposure since Wednesday. This shift is reflected in the long-to-short ratio, which dropped to 1.20 from 1.93. This reading represents a 30-day low for the exchange, suggesting that demand for leveraged long positions in margin and futures markets has cooled, even with BTC hitting 15-month lows.
Meanwhile, the long-to-short ratio for top traders at OKX hit 1.7 on Tuesday, a sharp reversal from its 4.3 peak on Thursday. This transition aligns with a $1 billion liquidation event in leveraged bullish BTC futures, where market participants were forced to close positions due to inadequate margin. Importantly, this specific data point reflects forced exits rather than a deliberate directional bet on further downside.
Strong ETF demand suggests Bitcoin whales are still bullish
Demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) serves as strong evidence that whales haven’t flipped bearish, despite recent price weakness.

Since Friday, US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $516 million in net inflows, reversing a trend from the previous three trading days. Consequently, the conditions that triggered the $2.2 billion in net outflows from Jan. 27 to Feb. 5 appear to have faded. A leading theory for that pressure pointed to an Asian fund that collapsed after leveraging ETF options positions via cheap Japanese yen funding.
Franklin Bi, a general partner at Pantera Capital, argued that a non-crypto-native trading company is the most likely culprit. He noted that a broader cross-asset margin unwind coincided with sharp corrections in metals. For instance, silver faced a staggering 45% decline in the seven days ending Feb. 5, erasing two months of gains. However, official data has yet to be released to validate this thesis.
The Bitcoin options market followed a similar trajectory, with a spike in neutral-to-bearish strategies on Thursday. Traders pivoted after Bitcoin’s price slipped below $72,000 rather than anticipating worsening conditions.

The BTC options premium put-to-call ratio at Deribit surged to 3.1 on Thursday, heavily favoring put (sell) instruments, though the indicator has since retreated to 1.7. Overall, the past two weeks have been marked by low demand for bullish positioning through BTC derivatives. While sentiment has worsened, lower leverage provides a healthier setup for sustainable price gains once the tide turns.
It remains unclear what could shift investor perception back toward Bitcoin, as core values like censorship resistance and strict monetary policy stay unchanged. The weak demand for Bitcoin derivatives should not be interpreted as a lack of confidence. Instead, it represents a surge in uncertainty until it becomes clear that exchanges and market makers were unaffected by the price crash.
Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed sentiment indicator fell to its lowest ever level, leading some analysts to suggest that $60,000 was the bottom for BTC. Does historical data agree?
Key takeaways:
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to a record low of 7, showing extreme fear in the market.More than $5.5 billion in short liquidations above current prices may fuel a rebound.Weak price trends and rising derivatives selling may still drag Bitcoin below $60,000.
Sentiment and liquidation suggest $60,000 remains support
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin is flashing sentiment readings that have previously marked market bottoms. According to Van De Poppe, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index had dropped to 5 over the weekend (final recorded reading is 7), its lowest reading in history, while the daily relative strength index (RSI) for BTC has fallen to 15, signaling deeply oversold conditions.

These levels were last seen during the 2018 bear market and the March 2020 COVID-19 crash. Van de Poppe said such conditions may allow BTC to recover and avoid an immediate retest of the $60,000 level.
CoinGlass data adds to the bullish case. Bitcoin’s liquidation heatmap shows over $5.45 billion in cumulative short liquidations positioned if the price moves roughly $10,000 higher, compared with $2.4 billion in liquidations on a retest of $60,000.
This imbalance suggests that an upward move may trigger forced shorts covering, leading to a BTC rally.

BTC structural weakness keeps downside risks in focus
Data from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin trading below its 50-day moving average near $87,000, while further below the 200-day moving average around $102,000. This wide gap reflects a corrective or “repricing” phase following the prior rally.

CryptoQuant’s Price Z-Score is also negative at -1.6, indicating BTC is trading below its statistical mean, a sign of selling pressure and trend exhaustion. Such conditions have preceded extended base-building rather than immediate rebounds.
Crypto analyst Darkfost highlighted a growing selling dominance in the derivatives markets. Monthly net taker volume has turned sharply negative at -$272 million on Sunday, while Binance’s taker buy-sell ratio has slipped below 1, signaling a strong selling pressure.
With futures volumes outweighing spot flows at the moment, stronger spot demand is needed to trigger a bullish reaction from BTC.
Adding a longer-term caution, Bitcoin investor Jelle noted that past Bitcoin bear market bottoms formed below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. For the current cycle, that level sits near $57,000, with deeper downside scenarios extending toward $42,000 if history repeats.

#BTC #bitcoin #fear&greed #TrendingTopic

Bitcoin’s been all over the place this week. One moment it’s slipping into the low $60Ks, the next it’s poking its head near $67K, and then it’s right back where it started. No follow-through. No clean trend. Just a lot of back and forth.
It honestly feels like the market’s catching its breath after the last big move. Buyers are showing up when price dips, but they’re not confident enough to push things higher. Sellers step in on every bounce, but they’re not strong enough to break support either. That’s why we’re stuck in this awkward middle ground.
And this kind of action usually means one thing: everyone’s waiting.
Waiting for macro clarity.Waiting for liquidity to settle.Waiting for someone to make the first real move.
Right now, the important zones are pretty clear:
$60K–$62K: buyers keep defending this area$64K–$65K: where price hesitates and chops$67K–$70K: the ceiling that keeps rejecting moves higher
As long as stays inside this range, it’s a patience game. Chasing moves here usually ends badly. The real opportunity comes when price finally breaks and holds outside this zone.
Until then, isn’t broken. It’s not exploding either. It’s just resetting.
And when it’s done doing that, the next move is likely going to catch a lot of people off guard. $BTC

February bleeds hope slowly. No crash, just a quiet grind that makes you question everything.
Then March flips the narrative. BTC breaks trend. Momentum returns. Suddenly, $180K–$200K isn't a dream — it's the target.
April and May bring liquidity, volume, euphoria. Everyone's confident. Breakouts feel clean. It's easy to forget risk even exists.
But June? That's when confidence peaks. Crowding happens quietly. The market doesn't need a trigger — just too many people on the same side.
July delivers the reset. Funding flips. Positions unwind. Either the structure holds… or it doesn't.
By August, higher lows fail. Optimism turns to hesitation. Hesitation becomes distribution. The bear phase whispers before it ever roars.
I've lived this rhythm before.
Doubt → Recovery → Euphoria → Distribution → Reset.
The cruel truth? By the time most realize where we are, the market is already miles ahead.
Risk management always feels unnecessary in the green — and essential only after the red.
#bitcoin #BTC #CryptoCycle #Marketpsychology #RiskManagement $BTC

$BTC inability to convincingly break and hold above the ~$70,000 zone has put pressure on broader crypto market structure, and the reasons go beyond simple price levels:
First, resistance isn’t just a number — it’s where liquidity clusters and positioning is heaviest. Around $70K, there’s a major high-volume node from prior trading and a psychological threshold that prompts profit-taking. When BTC repeatedly fails to close above this zone with strong volume, it signals to many participants that demand is not yet sufficient to drive the next leg up.
Second, the broader market is still absorbing macroeconomic stress. Risk assets — crypto included — have been tied to wider sentiment around interest rate expectations, equities volatility, and capital flows. When traditional risk assets weaken, crypto often leads the downside because it’s a higher-beta space with more leveraged participants.
Third, liquidations and leverage unwinding exacerbate downturns. As BTC struggled at resistance, short-term traders who bought suppressed highs saw leverage erode, triggering forced exits and amplifying selling pressure. That pressure radiates outward — altcoins and memecoins tend to bleed harder than BTC because they have lower liquidity and higher speculative positioning.
Fourth, on-chain metrics show that long-term holders are not capitulating in droves. Supply on exchanges remains elevated relative to longer cycles, suggesting that the crash is driven more by position reshuffling and fear of missing liquidity rather than structural breakdown of conviction.
Finally, markets crash when fear outweighs belief in the near term. Technical breakdowns create self-fulfilling moves — once key supports are violated, weak holders exit, stops cascade, and sentiment turns negative. This doesn’t mean the cycle is over; it means the market is processing risk differently than it was when BTC was grinding sideways above key supports.
In short:
BTC failing at $70K matters because it signals a pause in demand versus supply at a major liquidity layer. The broader market often follows because BTC is the reference asset — when it struggles, speculative capital rotates out or gets squeezed. Crashes aren’t just price mechanics — they are behavior mechanics.
If price stabilizes above major supply clusters and macro risk appetite improves, the market can recover. If not, we remain in a corrective phase until clear structural validation returns.
#btc70k #bitcoin