Bank of Japan Retreats as Bond Market Faces Double Exodus
The era of endless liquidity in Japan is officially closing. The Bank of Japan (BoJ), once the relentless buyer of last resort, is now aggressively shrinking its footprint in the sovereign debt market. New data reveals that the central bank's ownership of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) has fallen to ~48% of the total outstanding market, marking the lowest level in eight years. This retreat is part of a broader "quantitative tightening" (QT) strategy that is removing a critical floor from the market just as foreign investors are also heading for the exits. ❍ A Historic Balance Sheet Reduction
The scale of the BoJ's withdrawal is significant. 48% Ownership: The central bank now holds less than half of the JGB market, a psychological and structural shift from the dominance of the last decade.-7 Point Drop: This represents a -7 percentage point decline from the peak levels seen in 2022, signaling a decisive move away from the "Yield Curve Control" era. ❍ Tapering on Autopilot
The reduction isn't just passive; it is an active and accelerating policy choice. The BoJ has slashed its monthly bond-buying operations to nearly half of their previous volume. Aggressive Cuts: Monthly JGB purchases have dropped from 5.7 trillion Yen in mid-2024 to just 2.9 trillion Yen currently.More Pain to Come: The tightening schedule is locked in, with purchases expected to decline further to 2.1 trillion Yen per month by early 2027. ❍ The Foreign Exodus Compounding the pressure is a simultaneous retreat by international capital. Foreign holdings of JGBs have fallen to ~12% of the total, a level near the lowest seen since 2019. This indicates that global investors are finding better yields elsewhere or are wary of the currency risk, leaving the JGB market without its two largest consistent buyers. ❍ A Market Under Pressure
The simultaneous exit of the "Whale" (BoJ) and foreign investors creates a dangerous supply-demand imbalance. With the government continuing to issue debt and the primary buyers stepping back, the structural pressure on yields is heavily skewed to the upside.