$BTC Daily Forecast | Sun 15 Nov 2026
$BTC $64,763 (-3.60% 24h). The window fell 4.69% from a $67,166 clearing to $64,015 as a third long-liquidation wave broke $62,000 (low $61,991) on the heaviest volume in weeks.
09:00 London forecast
Mon 16 Nov: $64,015 (68%: $62,225-65,805 | 90%: $61,075-66,955)
Tue 17 Nov: $62,310 (68%: $59,415-65,205 | 90%: $57,545-67,075)
Scenarios: bull 11% / base 38% / bear 51%
Why the model leans lower
1. Trend (-0.85): under EMA10 ($71,415), EMA20 ($74,473), EMA50 ($77,421), EMA200 ($75,404); new low $61,991.
2. Macro (-0.40): hot US inflation, Fed-tightening odds still elevated.
3. ETF flows (-0.35): latest published -$299.9m, 3-session -$596m, 7-session -$1.48bn; 12/13-Nov not yet out. ETFs reopen Mon.
4. Funding (+0.25): latest hourly -28.2% ann., 24h mean -10.5% (from -0.85%), deepest in the series; OI flat ~6,153 $BTC . Crowded shorts.
5. Liquidations (+0.10): ~$1.1-1.5bn wiped, mostly longs, on the break of $62k.
6. Sentiment (+0.30): Fear & Greed 13, Extreme Fear (from 20). Contrarian, weight cut after 4 wrong calls.
7. Volatility: daily sigma up to 3.29%; Mon clearing weekend x0.85, Tue x1.0; window volume 4,562 $BTC .
Net weighted bias: -0.09 plus a -0.85% bias adjustment.
Key levels
Support: $62,225, then $61,991. A break opens $60,000-60,500.
Resistance: $64,800-65,805, then $67,166 and $67,531.
Scenario detail
Bull: funding squeeze back through $66k toward $67,200-68,000.
Base: Sunday stabilisation near $64,800, range $63-66k.
Bear: retest $61,991, then $60,500 if Monday ETF outflows continue.
Scorecard: 15-Nov call $66,690 vs $64,015 actual (4.18% miss, high). Sigma 2.69% -> 3.29%, bias -0.55% -> -0.85%, bear prior 48%, sentiment weight cut.
Full report + dashboard: metaitraders.com
(c) Alpha DeepFi (approved Square creator) / MetaiTraders. No reposting. Not financial advice, DYOR.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoForecast #BTCPrediction #CryptoMarket
$BTC $64,763 (-3.60% 24h). The window fell 4.69% from a $67,166 clearing to $64,015 as a third long-liquidation wave broke $62,000 (low $61,991) on the heaviest volume in weeks.
09:00 London forecast
Mon 16 Nov: $64,015 (68%: $62,225-65,805 | 90%: $61,075-66,955)
Tue 17 Nov: $62,310 (68%: $59,415-65,205 | 90%: $57,545-67,075)
Scenarios: bull 11% / base 38% / bear 51%
Why the model leans lower
1. Trend (-0.85): under EMA10 ($71,415), EMA20 ($74,473), EMA50 ($77,421), EMA200 ($75,404); new low $61,991.
2. Macro (-0.40): hot US inflation, Fed-tightening odds still elevated.
3. ETF flows (-0.35): latest published -$299.9m, 3-session -$596m, 7-session -$1.48bn; 12/13-Nov not yet out. ETFs reopen Mon.
4. Funding (+0.25): latest hourly -28.2% ann., 24h mean -10.5% (from -0.85%), deepest in the series; OI flat ~6,153 $BTC . Crowded shorts.
5. Liquidations (+0.10): ~$1.1-1.5bn wiped, mostly longs, on the break of $62k.
6. Sentiment (+0.30): Fear & Greed 13, Extreme Fear (from 20). Contrarian, weight cut after 4 wrong calls.
7. Volatility: daily sigma up to 3.29%; Mon clearing weekend x0.85, Tue x1.0; window volume 4,562 $BTC .
Net weighted bias: -0.09 plus a -0.85% bias adjustment.
Key levels
Support: $62,225, then $61,991. A break opens $60,000-60,500.
Resistance: $64,800-65,805, then $67,166 and $67,531.
Scenario detail
Bull: funding squeeze back through $66k toward $67,200-68,000.
Base: Sunday stabilisation near $64,800, range $63-66k.
Bear: retest $61,991, then $60,500 if Monday ETF outflows continue.
Scorecard: 15-Nov call $66,690 vs $64,015 actual (4.18% miss, high). Sigma 2.69% -> 3.29%, bias -0.55% -> -0.85%, bear prior 48%, sentiment weight cut.
Full report + dashboard: metaitraders.com
(c) Alpha DeepFi (approved Square creator) / MetaiTraders. No reposting. Not financial advice, DYOR.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoForecast #BTCPrediction #CryptoMarket
