$PUMP falls 15% — first close below its 200-day average since July
Pump.fun's token is sinking with the market — with a supply story of its own.
📊 LIVE SNAPSHOT (Binance, 13:22 PKT)
• Price: $0.002885 (-14.6% 24h)
• 24h range: $0.002726 – $0.003384
• Binance volume: $19.6M (30d daily avg ~$15.9M)
• 14 Nov close: $0.002917 (-15.4%) — first daily close below SMA200 ($0.002987) since 29 July 2026
• EMA20 $0.00382 | SMA50 $0.00467 | SMA200 $0.00299 — below all three
• RSI14 22.0 — deeply oversold
• 7d -21.6% | 30d -35.8% | ~67% below ATH $0.00882
• Market cap ~$1.32B, rank 58
• Fear & Greed: 10 — Extreme Fear
🔍 WHY IT'S FALLING
13 Nov: three team/early-investor wallets moved 1.458B newly unlocked PUMP (~$5.01M) to Coinbase Prime (EmberCN/Yu Jin). They hold 70B PUMP unlocking since July and moved the same amount on 13 Oct too — then worth $7.58M.
Same day, Pump.fun sent 64,666 SOL (~$5.19M) to Kraken; lifetime SOL sales: 5.62M SOL (~$887.6M) at avg $158.
A transfer does NOT prove a sale — but the market reads it as supply pressure. Next unlock: ~4.82B PUMP on 19 Nov (1.04% of circulating supply).
The rest is macro: BTC $64,393 (-4.2%), ETH $1,791 (-5.9%). No project failure — supply plus selloff.
📈 EXPECTATIONS (base-rate study, NOT a guarantee)
After a daily close of -8% or worse, PUMP's own history (431 candles, ±8% barriers, 7-day window, episodes 7+ days apart, current excluded):
• N=26: UP first 62% / DOWN first 35% / FLAT 4%
• Only 38% were higher 7 days later — bounces often fail
• -12% check (N=7, small): DOWN first 57% — deeper drops bounce less
• No PUMP options on Deribit, so no market-implied odds
Read: a bounce is the more common FIRST move — holding it is the hard part.
🎯 TRADE PLAN
• Don't chase. Dip-long only $0.002726–$0.002917, stop on daily close below $0.002684
• Breakout-long only on daily close above $0.003150
• Targets: $0.003150, $0.003448 (13 Nov close), $0.003823 (EMA20)
• Below $0.002684 close → $0.00240, then $0.001865 (29 July close)
• Tiny size, spot only, no leverage. Confidence: Low.
$PUMP #Pumpfun #PUMP #Crypto
Pump.fun's token is sinking with the market — with a supply story of its own.
📊 LIVE SNAPSHOT (Binance, 13:22 PKT)
• Price: $0.002885 (-14.6% 24h)
• 24h range: $0.002726 – $0.003384
• Binance volume: $19.6M (30d daily avg ~$15.9M)
• 14 Nov close: $0.002917 (-15.4%) — first daily close below SMA200 ($0.002987) since 29 July 2026
• EMA20 $0.00382 | SMA50 $0.00467 | SMA200 $0.00299 — below all three
• RSI14 22.0 — deeply oversold
• 7d -21.6% | 30d -35.8% | ~67% below ATH $0.00882
• Market cap ~$1.32B, rank 58
• Fear & Greed: 10 — Extreme Fear
🔍 WHY IT'S FALLING
13 Nov: three team/early-investor wallets moved 1.458B newly unlocked PUMP (~$5.01M) to Coinbase Prime (EmberCN/Yu Jin). They hold 70B PUMP unlocking since July and moved the same amount on 13 Oct too — then worth $7.58M.
Same day, Pump.fun sent 64,666 SOL (~$5.19M) to Kraken; lifetime SOL sales: 5.62M SOL (~$887.6M) at avg $158.
A transfer does NOT prove a sale — but the market reads it as supply pressure. Next unlock: ~4.82B PUMP on 19 Nov (1.04% of circulating supply).
The rest is macro: BTC $64,393 (-4.2%), ETH $1,791 (-5.9%). No project failure — supply plus selloff.
📈 EXPECTATIONS (base-rate study, NOT a guarantee)
After a daily close of -8% or worse, PUMP's own history (431 candles, ±8% barriers, 7-day window, episodes 7+ days apart, current excluded):
• N=26: UP first 62% / DOWN first 35% / FLAT 4%
• Only 38% were higher 7 days later — bounces often fail
• -12% check (N=7, small): DOWN first 57% — deeper drops bounce less
• No PUMP options on Deribit, so no market-implied odds
Read: a bounce is the more common FIRST move — holding it is the hard part.
🎯 TRADE PLAN
• Don't chase. Dip-long only $0.002726–$0.002917, stop on daily close below $0.002684
• Breakout-long only on daily close above $0.003150
• Targets: $0.003150, $0.003448 (13 Nov close), $0.003823 (EMA20)
• Below $0.002684 close → $0.00240, then $0.001865 (29 July close)
• Tiny size, spot only, no leverage. Confidence: Low.
$PUMP #Pumpfun #PUMP #Crypto