The number I'd put above price right now is $USDT's supply. It's down about $9B since early October, from roughly $184B to $175B, a 4.9% drop. That's the biggest USDT shrink of this whole year.
Crypto Rover lined it up against the last two big drawdowns. In January BTC fell 38% while USDT supply slipped only 1.9%. In May it fell 30% and supply dropped 3.7%. This time BTC is down about 24% from the $87K top, to around $67K, and the dollar supply behind the market is leaving faster than in either of those. DefiLlama shows all stablecoins at about $287B, down from $305B in early October.
Why I care: stablecoins are the ammo. When supply grows, fresh dollars are waiting to buy dips. When it shrinks, people are redeeming and walking away from the table, not rotating into something else. In 2018 and 2022 the real bottoms showed up after stablecoin supply stopped falling, not before.
I'm not calling a bottom or a top here. A shrinking supply can also mean leverage getting cleaned out, which the market needs. But I'd want to see it stabilize first.
What I'm watching:
• USDT supply flattening for a week or two
• net mints returning on exchanges
• BTC holding $67K while supply is still falling
Do you read this as exhaustion or as money leaving for good?
#Stablecoins #USDT #Tether #CryptoMarket #BinanceSquare
Not financial advice. DYOR.
Crypto Rover lined it up against the last two big drawdowns. In January BTC fell 38% while USDT supply slipped only 1.9%. In May it fell 30% and supply dropped 3.7%. This time BTC is down about 24% from the $87K top, to around $67K, and the dollar supply behind the market is leaving faster than in either of those. DefiLlama shows all stablecoins at about $287B, down from $305B in early October.
Why I care: stablecoins are the ammo. When supply grows, fresh dollars are waiting to buy dips. When it shrinks, people are redeeming and walking away from the table, not rotating into something else. In 2018 and 2022 the real bottoms showed up after stablecoin supply stopped falling, not before.
I'm not calling a bottom or a top here. A shrinking supply can also mean leverage getting cleaned out, which the market needs. But I'd want to see it stabilize first.
What I'm watching:
• USDT supply flattening for a week or two
• net mints returning on exchanges
• BTC holding $67K while supply is still falling
Do you read this as exhaustion or as money leaving for good?
#Stablecoins #USDT #Tether #CryptoMarket #BinanceSquare
Not financial advice. DYOR.
