Bitcoin ($BTC ) closed Friday at $68,314 — it held $68,000, but on the biggest volume day of the selloff
Snapshot (Binance, 14 Nov ~05:52 PKT): $BTC $68,322, 24h -3.9%, range $67,568-$71,234, 24h volume $2.0B. Friday's daily candle: -4.40%, low $67,568, volume 29,649 BTC — 1.95x Thursday and ~2x the 30-day average. A volume climax, and the close held the line.
What happened: BTC slipped under its 200-week average (near $68,000, CoinDesk) intraday, its lowest since August, as hot October CPI (+0.4% vs +0.3% expected) repriced Fed cuts and US spot ETFs bled $644M this week (SoSoValue). $1.47B in leveraged positions were liquidated in 24h (CoinGlass). Fear & Greed: 13, Extreme Fear. RSI14: 27.3 — oversold. Price sits 6.5% below its daily SMA200 ($73,092). Bitcoin is heading for a 6th straight weekly loss and is down 16.4% in 30 days.
Expectations — Deribit options, 20 Nov expiry (not a guarantee): +4% to $71,047: 21% | -4% to $65,581: 19% | flat in between: ~60%. Reclaim $70,000 by Friday: 33%. Below $65,000: 15%. Back above SMA200 $73,092: only 8%. History is no kinder: after -4% daily closes this year, BTC was higher 7 days later 0 of 3 times (N=3, weak evidence).
Plan: don't chase. Long only on a daily close above $70,000, stop below $67,568; targets $71,460 then $73,092. Below $67,568, next stop is $65,000. Tiny size, spot only, no leverage. Confidence: Low. Mining difficulty is expected to drop ~8% later today (estimate, largest cut since June) — relief for miners, not a price signal.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto
Snapshot (Binance, 14 Nov ~05:52 PKT): $BTC $68,322, 24h -3.9%, range $67,568-$71,234, 24h volume $2.0B. Friday's daily candle: -4.40%, low $67,568, volume 29,649 BTC — 1.95x Thursday and ~2x the 30-day average. A volume climax, and the close held the line.
What happened: BTC slipped under its 200-week average (near $68,000, CoinDesk) intraday, its lowest since August, as hot October CPI (+0.4% vs +0.3% expected) repriced Fed cuts and US spot ETFs bled $644M this week (SoSoValue). $1.47B in leveraged positions were liquidated in 24h (CoinGlass). Fear & Greed: 13, Extreme Fear. RSI14: 27.3 — oversold. Price sits 6.5% below its daily SMA200 ($73,092). Bitcoin is heading for a 6th straight weekly loss and is down 16.4% in 30 days.
Expectations — Deribit options, 20 Nov expiry (not a guarantee): +4% to $71,047: 21% | -4% to $65,581: 19% | flat in between: ~60%. Reclaim $70,000 by Friday: 33%. Below $65,000: 15%. Back above SMA200 $73,092: only 8%. History is no kinder: after -4% daily closes this year, BTC was higher 7 days later 0 of 3 times (N=3, weak evidence).
Plan: don't chase. Long only on a daily close above $70,000, stop below $67,568; targets $71,460 then $73,092. Below $67,568, next stop is $65,000. Tiny size, spot only, no leverage. Confidence: Low. Mining difficulty is expected to drop ~8% later today (estimate, largest cut since June) — relief for miners, not a price signal.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto