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MISSING AN OPPORTUNITY IS ACCEPTABLE. FALLING INTO A DEEP HOLE IS NOT. MY DEAR 90%
$BTC fell below $70,000 to about $68,900, with a low near $67,555. More than $1.3 billion of futures were liquidated in 24 hours, mostly longs.
Is it organic or artificial? I think it is both. The trigger is open: hot inflation, a Fed hike expected on 9 Dec, a dollar index above 103, ETF outflows, and stablecoin supply down about $14 billion in 30 days. Then leverage made it bigger, because forced selling pushes the price down and forces more selling.
The cause chain as I see it:
Inflation → Fed hike odds → strong dollar → fewer buyers → leveraged longs liquidated → faster fall.
What I am watching:
$68,000, then $65,000 to $66,660, then about $64,000. Analysts quote about $52,700 as a historical bear-market reference. It is not a forecast. ETF flows and stablecoin supply: are buyers coming back? Does $BTC reclaim $70,000 and hold it?
Why leverage is the deep hole (from about $69,000, before fees):
2x is liquidated near a 50% fall 3x near 33% 5x near 20% 10x near 10%
A fall to $50,000 is about 27% from here. That is enough to wipe out a 5x trade long before the bottom.
I don’t claim to predict every candle. I want to understand WHY.
To the 90% of retail traders: if you miss the bottom, you lose a chance. If you are liquidated, you lose your money. Missing a chance is acceptable. Use small size, no leverage, and write your exit before you buy. Do not trade money you need for food or rent. When everyone says “buy the dip” and you feel hurry, wait.
Question: would you rather miss a bounce or survive to trade next month?
Experience, not financial advice.
$BTC
$ETH #Bitcoin #RiskManagement #CryptoLiquidations
MISSING AN OPPORTUNITY IS ACCEPTABLE. FALLING INTO A DEEP HOLE IS NOT. MY DEAR 90%
$BTC fell below $70,000 to about $68,900, with a low near $67,555. More than $1.3 billion of futures were liquidated in 24 hours, mostly longs.
Is it organic or artificial? I think it is both. The trigger is open: hot inflation, a Fed hike expected on 9 Dec, a dollar index above 103, ETF outflows, and stablecoin supply down about $14 billion in 30 days. Then leverage made it bigger, because forced selling pushes the price down and forces more selling.
The cause chain as I see it:
Inflation → Fed hike odds → strong dollar → fewer buyers → leveraged longs liquidated → faster fall.
What I am watching:
$68,000, then $65,000 to $66,660, then about $64,000. Analysts quote about $52,700 as a historical bear-market reference. It is not a forecast. ETF flows and stablecoin supply: are buyers coming back? Does $BTC reclaim $70,000 and hold it?
Why leverage is the deep hole (from about $69,000, before fees):
2x is liquidated near a 50% fall 3x near 33% 5x near 20% 10x near 10%
A fall to $50,000 is about 27% from here. That is enough to wipe out a 5x trade long before the bottom.
I don’t claim to predict every candle. I want to understand WHY.
To the 90% of retail traders: if you miss the bottom, you lose a chance. If you are liquidated, you lose your money. Missing a chance is acceptable. Use small size, no leverage, and write your exit before you buy. Do not trade money you need for food or rent. When everyone says “buy the dip” and you feel hurry, wait.
Question: would you rather miss a bounce or survive to trade next month?
Experience, not financial advice.
$BTC
$ETH #Bitcoin #RiskManagement #CryptoLiquidations
