Nakamoto's debt is now bigger than the company. The numbers (CoinDesk, 8-K, Nov 13):
• Owed to Kraken: 165M USDT
• Market value: ~$104M (shares closed Thursday at $5.79)
• Pledged: 3,030 of 4,283 BTC (end of Sept)
• Pledged coins at ~$69K: ~$208M, about 126% of the loan
• Unpledged BTC left to post: ~1,253, roughly $86M
• Repayments pushed out: 60M USDT from Dec 4, 2026 to Dec 4, 2027; 105M still due June 30, 2027
My read: nothing breaks this year, but the extension buys time, not safety. If $BTC keeps sliding, the cushion shrinks and the spare coins become the next collateral. Treasury firms were built for a rising market, and this is the first real test of the leverage side.
Not financial advice. Disclosure: I can earn Binance Write to Earn rewards from this post.
#BitcoinTreasury #BTC
• Owed to Kraken: 165M USDT
• Market value: ~$104M (shares closed Thursday at $5.79)
• Pledged: 3,030 of 4,283 BTC (end of Sept)
• Pledged coins at ~$69K: ~$208M, about 126% of the loan
• Unpledged BTC left to post: ~1,253, roughly $86M
• Repayments pushed out: 60M USDT from Dec 4, 2026 to Dec 4, 2027; 105M still due June 30, 2027
My read: nothing breaks this year, but the extension buys time, not safety. If $BTC keeps sliding, the cushion shrinks and the spare coins become the next collateral. Treasury firms were built for a rising market, and this is the first real test of the leverage side.
Not financial advice. Disclosure: I can earn Binance Write to Earn rewards from this post.
#BitcoinTreasury #BTC