$1.4B wiped in 24h — the liquidation cascade, explained
Bitcoin fell below $69,000 for the first time since August. This was not one big seller — it was forced selling. When leveraged longs hit their liquidation price, exchanges close them automatically. That selling pushes price lower, which liquidates the next longs. A cascade.
Live snapshot (Binance, 13 Nov ~10:35 PKT): $BTC $68,826, -6.5% in 24h, range $68,307-$73,738, volume $1.73B. ETH $1,926 (-5.8%), SOL $78.83 (-4.8%). Fear & Greed 20 — Extreme Fear.
The numbers (CoinGlass, via CryptoPotato, 04:46 UTC): $1.4B liquidated in 24h — $1.26B of it longs, only $155M shorts. BTC $742M, ETH $250M. 170,000+ traders wiped out. Biggest single hit: a $31.09M long on Hyperliquid. Three whales lost $10M+ each, about $102M combined. In 4 hours alone, $622M was liquidated.
No new single catalyst. Same drivers: hot Oct CPI, ~91% chance of a Dec Fed hike, 5 straight days of ETF outflows (~$1.44B), Nvidia CEO resignation, MSCI dropping Strategy. PPI lands tonight 18:30 PKT — the next volatility event.
Expectations — after a -5% day, what history says (not a guarantee):
BTC daily closes of -5% or worse, 1,000 candles, plus/minus 5% barriers, 7 days, N=17: down 5% first 47%, up 5% first 35%, flat 18%. 7 days later lower 65% of the time. Deribit agrees (20 Nov expiry): below $68,000 ~41%, above $70,000 ~38%.
Plan: stand aside. Long only on a daily close above $70,000, stop below $68,307. Targets $70,000 then $73,137. A close below $68,000 opens $67,292. Tiny size, spot only. Confidence: Low.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto
Bitcoin fell below $69,000 for the first time since August. This was not one big seller — it was forced selling. When leveraged longs hit their liquidation price, exchanges close them automatically. That selling pushes price lower, which liquidates the next longs. A cascade.
Live snapshot (Binance, 13 Nov ~10:35 PKT): $BTC $68,826, -6.5% in 24h, range $68,307-$73,738, volume $1.73B. ETH $1,926 (-5.8%), SOL $78.83 (-4.8%). Fear & Greed 20 — Extreme Fear.
The numbers (CoinGlass, via CryptoPotato, 04:46 UTC): $1.4B liquidated in 24h — $1.26B of it longs, only $155M shorts. BTC $742M, ETH $250M. 170,000+ traders wiped out. Biggest single hit: a $31.09M long on Hyperliquid. Three whales lost $10M+ each, about $102M combined. In 4 hours alone, $622M was liquidated.
No new single catalyst. Same drivers: hot Oct CPI, ~91% chance of a Dec Fed hike, 5 straight days of ETF outflows (~$1.44B), Nvidia CEO resignation, MSCI dropping Strategy. PPI lands tonight 18:30 PKT — the next volatility event.
Expectations — after a -5% day, what history says (not a guarantee):
BTC daily closes of -5% or worse, 1,000 candles, plus/minus 5% barriers, 7 days, N=17: down 5% first 47%, up 5% first 35%, flat 18%. 7 days later lower 65% of the time. Deribit agrees (20 Nov expiry): below $68,000 ~41%, above $70,000 ~38%.
Plan: stand aside. Long only on a daily close above $70,000, stop below $68,307. Targets $70,000 then $73,137. A close below $68,000 opens $67,292. Tiny size, spot only. Confidence: Low.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto