The probability on Polymarket that Nvidia’s market capitalization will be below $4 trillion at the end of 2026 rose to 48%, an 18% increase over 24 hours. According to Odaily, settlement will be based on Nvidia’s official closing price during regular trading on the final trading day of 2026 multiplied by its outstanding shares at that time, using official exchange data and share counts disclosed by the company. All classes of outstanding shares will be included, with applicable conversion ratios applied.

If the final market capitalization falls exactly on the boundary between two forecast ranges, the market will settle at the higher range. If Nvidia is acquired or merges and ceases to exist as an independent entity before year-end, settlement will use its publicly traded market capitalization before the transaction closes, excluding the transaction consideration. If Nvidia remains the surviving parent company, the existing settlement rules will apply.