BTC's RSI just hit 35 — near oversold. Does that mean a bounce is coming?
Short answer from BTC's own history: no edge at all.
$BTC $73,567, -0.1% in 24h, range $73,390-$74,811, Binance volume $1.01B. 11 Nov close $74,015 held SMA200 $73,147 for a 2nd day. RSI14 35.0 (last daily close) — close to the 30 oversold line, but NOT below it yet. EMA20 $77,069 and SMA50 $80,989 are both far overhead. 7d -8.1%, 30d -9.6%. Fear and Greed 28, Fear.
I tested every day BTC closed with RSI under 36 — 1,000 daily candles, symmetric 5% barriers, 7 days, episodes at least 7 days apart:
N=25: price rose 5% first only 10 times (40%), fell 5% first 13 times (52%), neither 2 times (8%). After 7 days, price was higher only 12 of 25 (48%). Even at RSI under 30 (N=9): down first 5, up first 4.
In plain words: buying just because RSI looks low has been a coin flip — slightly worse. Oversold can stay oversold while price keeps sliding.
Context: spot BTC ETFs lost $299.9M on Wednesday, a 5th straight day of outflows (SoSoValue via FXStreet). 24h liquidations about $256M, 61% longs (AlphaFinance/Coinfuty).
Expectations (not a guarantee):
- Bounce 5% first: about 40%
- Falls 5% first: about 52%
- Flat within 7 days: about 8%
Options market agrees there is no strong up edge: Deribit prices about 64% chance BTC stays above $73,000 into Friday's expiry.
Plan: stand aside. Don't buy the RSI number alone. Long only on a daily close above $75,368, stop below SMA200 $73,147. Targets $74,888 then $77,069. A daily close below $73,147 opens $72,727 then $70,000. Tiny size, spot only. Confidence: Low.
RSI is a warning light, not a buy signal.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto
Short answer from BTC's own history: no edge at all.
$BTC $73,567, -0.1% in 24h, range $73,390-$74,811, Binance volume $1.01B. 11 Nov close $74,015 held SMA200 $73,147 for a 2nd day. RSI14 35.0 (last daily close) — close to the 30 oversold line, but NOT below it yet. EMA20 $77,069 and SMA50 $80,989 are both far overhead. 7d -8.1%, 30d -9.6%. Fear and Greed 28, Fear.
I tested every day BTC closed with RSI under 36 — 1,000 daily candles, symmetric 5% barriers, 7 days, episodes at least 7 days apart:
N=25: price rose 5% first only 10 times (40%), fell 5% first 13 times (52%), neither 2 times (8%). After 7 days, price was higher only 12 of 25 (48%). Even at RSI under 30 (N=9): down first 5, up first 4.
In plain words: buying just because RSI looks low has been a coin flip — slightly worse. Oversold can stay oversold while price keeps sliding.
Context: spot BTC ETFs lost $299.9M on Wednesday, a 5th straight day of outflows (SoSoValue via FXStreet). 24h liquidations about $256M, 61% longs (AlphaFinance/Coinfuty).
Expectations (not a guarantee):
- Bounce 5% first: about 40%
- Falls 5% first: about 52%
- Flat within 7 days: about 8%
Options market agrees there is no strong up edge: Deribit prices about 64% chance BTC stays above $73,000 into Friday's expiry.
Plan: stand aside. Don't buy the RSI number alone. Long only on a daily close above $75,368, stop below SMA200 $73,147. Targets $74,888 then $77,069. A daily close below $73,147 opens $72,727 then $70,000. Tiny size, spot only. Confidence: Low.
RSI is a warning light, not a buy signal.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto