Valuation: Oracle is growing 35% at 12.8x operating income. CrowdStrike is growing 26% at ~128x.
→ Median across the 50 largest software stocks: 17% growth, 21.2x
→ Oracle down 50% from its 1-year high, CrowdStrike up 97% year to date
→ Software ETF down 4% YTD, Nasdaq 100 up 11%
I think the market isn't paying for growth, it's paying for the quality of growth; Oracle's growth hinges on debt-funded capacity.
Worst case: if AI spending slows, multiples that look cheap get even cheaper; that's what I'm watching.
#Stocks #AI
Watching: $ORCL $CRWD $QQQ
→ Median across the 50 largest software stocks: 17% growth, 21.2x
→ Oracle down 50% from its 1-year high, CrowdStrike up 97% year to date
→ Software ETF down 4% YTD, Nasdaq 100 up 11%
I think the market isn't paying for growth, it's paying for the quality of growth; Oracle's growth hinges on debt-funded capacity.
Worst case: if AI spending slows, multiples that look cheap get even cheaper; that's what I'm watching.
#Stocks #AI
Watching: $ORCL $CRWD $QQQ
