On Tuesday the October CPI hit screens, and the daily $BTC candle turned from a modest pop above $74,500 into a long red body. By the evening it had printed $72,585 on Kraken, the lowest level since Aug 20.

Price now rests on the 200-day average, and the question is simple: which side breaks first?

📉 The candle

  • Bitcoin trades near $73,600, about 1.5% lower on the day, 5.3% lower on the week and 12.2% lower over 30 days.

  • The wick under $73K got bought, but the close sits right on the 200-day line around $73.2K.

  • That's the same average that held on Nov 9, so this is the second test in three days.

🔍 Why it fell

  • Headline CPI rose 0.4% m/m against 0.3% expected, and core rose 0.3% against 0.2%.

  • Fed Governor Waller had already said he'd back a 25 bp hike on Dec 9, and CME FedWatch odds jumped to roughly 96% after his remarks.

  • Rate hikes and a stronger dollar are a bad mix for a market that is already leaking money.

📏 The lines

  • RSI(14) sits near 35, weak but not oversold.

  • The 50-day ($81.6K) and 100-day ($77.4K) averages both slope down.

  • Resistance: $75,000, then $75,450 (Strategy's average cost), then $77.4K.

  • Support: $73,200, then $72,350, then $70,500 (the Apr 12 low).

🏦 Money flows

  • US spot ETFs lost $201M on Nov 9, and BlackRock's IBIT has now seen seven straight outflow days worth $1.66B.

  • MARA sold 13,597 BTC over six weeks, while Strategy ($MSTR) added only 1,036 BTC at $79,012.

  • One quieter detail: CryptoQuant data shows loss-making short-term holders sent 70% fewer coins to exchanges on Nov 9 than on Nov 6, so panic selling is cooling. Their cost basis sits near $75,700.

⛏ Miners

  • The 7-day hashrate average fell to about 958 EH/s from roughly 1,024 in October.

  • The next difficulty adjustment around Nov 13 is estimated at minus 6.4% to 6.8%, the biggest cut since June.

📰 Headlines

  • 1⃣ Hot CPI pushes BTC under $74K; more than $632M in crypto positions liquidated, $511M of them longs.

  • 2⃣ Waller backs a December hike even if inflation cools.

  • 3⃣ IBIT's outflow streak reaches seven sessions.

🎯 Three paths

  • 🟢 A daily close above $75.5–75.7K reclaims the Strategy and short-term-holder cost bases and opens $77.4K, then $79K.

  • ⚪ Chop between $72.3K and $76K into Friday's PPI and options expiry (max pain $75K).

  • 🔴 A daily close under $72.3K breaks the 200-day zone and points to $70.5K, then about $69K.

🧠 Analyst desk

  • 21Shares' Matt Mena calls $73K key support, with $69K below and $78K to $85K above if it holds.

  • Bitget's Lewis Huang is watching the same 200-day line.

  • Bitfinex expects a $72,350 to $79,400 range into Friday, mostly in the lower half.

🗓 This week

  • Thu Nov 12: US jobless claims

  • Fri Nov 13: Deribit BTC options expiry

  • Fri Nov 13: US October PPI

  • ~Nov 13: Bitcoin difficulty adjustment

  • Wed Dec 9: FOMC decision

My read: the 200-day has held twice, but each bounce has been smaller. Friday's PPI probably decides whether there's a third.

Which driver matters most for $BTC this week? A) PPI B) ETF flows C) Fed hike odds 👇

Educational content, not financial advice. DYOR.

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