INIT up 52% AFTER its chain got hacked again — L1 halted, buyers still buying
$INIT $0.297, up 52% in 24h (range $0.1650-$0.3319, Binance vol $34.9M, about 01:25 PKT). MC about $43M, rank 488. BTC $73,494 flat, Fear and Greed 32.
Sequel to the 10:13 post — the story changed: that post covered a rollup pause with the L1 still online; hours later, the L1 itself halted.
What happened (verified, multi-source):
- 10 Nov, 06:18 UTC: Initia halted its L1 after unauthorized transfers from escrow accounts holding assets bridged to its rollups (official Initia post, via crypto.news, Protos, KuCoin).
- Compromised rollup keys let the attacker fake IBC transfers. About $615K moved off-chain (CertiK: about $636K over 16 transfers). Most of the rest is still on the halted chain.
- Second hack in under 3 weeks: the 23 Oct exploit took about $2.7M; chain restarted 2 Nov, hacked again 8 days later. Combined about $3.3M — more than remaining TVL (Protos). No resume date or reimbursement decision yet.
Why UP? No positive catalyst — pure speculation on recovery and restart. Same pattern ran 27-28 Oct (up 73%, no announcement) and faded.
Technicals (Binance daily): 9 Nov close $0.1911 (up 58.7%); today up 52% on top, 7d up 141%, 30d up 152%. EMA20 $0.162, SMA50 $0.134, SMA200 $0.082 — price 83% above EMA20. RSI 66.8. ATH $1.42 (May 2025) still 79% above.
Expectations — base-rate, not a guarantee: no INIT options on Deribit, so odds come from INIT's own history — days gaining 30% or more, symmetric 10% barriers, 7 days, episodes 7 or more days apart. N=5: UP first 40%, DOWN first 20%, FLAT 40%. Only 3 days ever gained 50% or more — 15 Feb, 9 Nov, today; two in a row never happened. 7 days after the 4 completed episodes, price was higher 0 times.
Plan: do NOT chase a 52% day on a halted chain. Dip only if $0.2579 (broken 52-week high) holds with a daily close back above it — tiny size, spot only. Add only on a daily close above $0.3319. Invalidation: close below $0.2579, then $0.2070, then $0.1911. Targets: $0.3319, $0.40, $0.50. Confidence: Low.
#INIT #Initia #Crypto
$INIT $0.297, up 52% in 24h (range $0.1650-$0.3319, Binance vol $34.9M, about 01:25 PKT). MC about $43M, rank 488. BTC $73,494 flat, Fear and Greed 32.
Sequel to the 10:13 post — the story changed: that post covered a rollup pause with the L1 still online; hours later, the L1 itself halted.
What happened (verified, multi-source):
- 10 Nov, 06:18 UTC: Initia halted its L1 after unauthorized transfers from escrow accounts holding assets bridged to its rollups (official Initia post, via crypto.news, Protos, KuCoin).
- Compromised rollup keys let the attacker fake IBC transfers. About $615K moved off-chain (CertiK: about $636K over 16 transfers). Most of the rest is still on the halted chain.
- Second hack in under 3 weeks: the 23 Oct exploit took about $2.7M; chain restarted 2 Nov, hacked again 8 days later. Combined about $3.3M — more than remaining TVL (Protos). No resume date or reimbursement decision yet.
Why UP? No positive catalyst — pure speculation on recovery and restart. Same pattern ran 27-28 Oct (up 73%, no announcement) and faded.
Technicals (Binance daily): 9 Nov close $0.1911 (up 58.7%); today up 52% on top, 7d up 141%, 30d up 152%. EMA20 $0.162, SMA50 $0.134, SMA200 $0.082 — price 83% above EMA20. RSI 66.8. ATH $1.42 (May 2025) still 79% above.
Expectations — base-rate, not a guarantee: no INIT options on Deribit, so odds come from INIT's own history — days gaining 30% or more, symmetric 10% barriers, 7 days, episodes 7 or more days apart. N=5: UP first 40%, DOWN first 20%, FLAT 40%. Only 3 days ever gained 50% or more — 15 Feb, 9 Nov, today; two in a row never happened. 7 days after the 4 completed episodes, price was higher 0 times.
Plan: do NOT chase a 52% day on a halted chain. Dip only if $0.2579 (broken 52-week high) holds with a daily close back above it — tiny size, spot only. Add only on a daily close above $0.3319. Invalidation: close below $0.2579, then $0.2070, then $0.1911. Targets: $0.3319, $0.40, $0.50. Confidence: Low.
#INIT #Initia #Crypto