Bitcoin vs a Fed hike: is the bad news already priced in?
Hotter October CPI (headline +0.4% m/m, core +0.3%, both above forecast) lifted December hike odds to ~85%. BTC lost $73K, printing $72,888 on Binance spot at 16:37 UTC.
Priced in:
- Hike odds were already ~77-80% before the print.
- $600M+ in liquidations over 24h has flushed leverage.
Not priced in:
- Spot BTC ETFs just logged a 7th straight day of outflows.
- Traders now see a real chance of a 50 bp move.
Market Clearly view: a 25 bp hike looks largely priced. A 50 bp surprise does not.
Priced in or not yet? Pick a side and name the one data point that convinced you.
$BTC $ETH
Not financial advice. DYOR.
Hotter October CPI (headline +0.4% m/m, core +0.3%, both above forecast) lifted December hike odds to ~85%. BTC lost $73K, printing $72,888 on Binance spot at 16:37 UTC.
Priced in:
- Hike odds were already ~77-80% before the print.
- $600M+ in liquidations over 24h has flushed leverage.
Not priced in:
- Spot BTC ETFs just logged a 7th straight day of outflows.
- Traders now see a real chance of a 50 bp move.
Market Clearly view: a 25 bp hike looks largely priced. A 50 bp surprise does not.
Priced in or not yet? Pick a side and name the one data point that convinced you.
$BTC $ETH
Not financial advice. DYOR.
