ARB did not fall on CPI nerves. It fell on its own calendar.
CPI prints before the open, and the easy call is today's red is macro. $ARB is down 9.5%, while Bitcoin is down 0.3%, $HYPE is up 0.2% and $BNB is up 0.4%. Thirty times Bitcoin's move, on the same tape.
Three rows to run:
1. Size the supply against float. 92.65 million tokens unlock against 6.89 billion circulating, roughly 1.3% of the float.
2. Check price against the run-up high. ARB printed 0.188 and sits 13.6% below it, under its pre-news close: the supply was sold before it existed.
3. Check the tape before blaming macro. Three of those four are green; de-risking does not pick one coin.
When 1 and 2 fire, buy the unlock date, not the dip.
A dip into supply is not a discount. I am waiting with no position. If ARB reclaims 0.1749 through the unlock, I am wrong.
Data as of today. Not financial advice.
Buy the pre-unlock dip, or wait for the tokens to hit the tape?
#Arbitrum #BitcoinFiveWeeklyLosses #BinanceSquare
CPI prints before the open, and the easy call is today's red is macro. $ARB is down 9.5%, while Bitcoin is down 0.3%, $HYPE is up 0.2% and $BNB is up 0.4%. Thirty times Bitcoin's move, on the same tape.
Three rows to run:
1. Size the supply against float. 92.65 million tokens unlock against 6.89 billion circulating, roughly 1.3% of the float.
2. Check price against the run-up high. ARB printed 0.188 and sits 13.6% below it, under its pre-news close: the supply was sold before it existed.
3. Check the tape before blaming macro. Three of those four are green; de-risking does not pick one coin.
When 1 and 2 fire, buy the unlock date, not the dip.
A dip into supply is not a discount. I am waiting with no position. If ARB reclaims 0.1749 through the unlock, I am wrong.
Data as of today. Not financial advice.
Buy the pre-unlock dip, or wait for the tokens to hit the tape?
#Arbitrum #BitcoinFiveWeeklyLosses #BinanceSquare
