Stocks just had their best day since April and Bitcoin didn't even bother showing up.
Nasdaq +2.74%, S&P +2.34% — and $BTC is still sitting around $74,300, down about 10% in a month and 41% off its $126k high. A few months ago BTC would have ridden that wave. Now it can't even hold $75k.
My read: this isn't a macro problem anymore, it's a crypto problem. US spot BTC ETFs bled $1.28 billion last week plus another $201 million yesterday, and $1.2 billion in leveraged longs got wiped out over the weekend. The buyers who used to step in on every dip are the ones leaving.
CPI lands in about three hours — expected +0.3% month over month. A cool print could give us the relief bounce toward $76k. A hot one and $73k is right there, and below that it's $70k pretty fast.
So here's where I stand: I'm not buying the dip until BTC reclaims $76k with ETF flows turning positive. Until then it's a falling knife with good headlines.
Which side are you on — A) cool CPI, BTC rips back above $76k, B) hot CPI, $73k breaks, or C) CPI doesn't matter, flows are the real problem?
Nasdaq +2.74%, S&P +2.34% — and $BTC is still sitting around $74,300, down about 10% in a month and 41% off its $126k high. A few months ago BTC would have ridden that wave. Now it can't even hold $75k.
My read: this isn't a macro problem anymore, it's a crypto problem. US spot BTC ETFs bled $1.28 billion last week plus another $201 million yesterday, and $1.2 billion in leveraged longs got wiped out over the weekend. The buyers who used to step in on every dip are the ones leaving.
CPI lands in about three hours — expected +0.3% month over month. A cool print could give us the relief bounce toward $76k. A hot one and $73k is right there, and below that it's $70k pretty fast.
So here's where I stand: I'm not buying the dip until BTC reclaims $76k with ETF flows turning positive. Until then it's a falling knife with good headlines.
Which side are you on — A) cool CPI, BTC rips back above $76k, B) hot CPI, $73k breaks, or C) CPI doesn't matter, flows are the real problem?