🚨 CPI Day: Will Today's Inflation Print Change the Fed's December Move? #CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October CPI report today at 8:30 am Eastern. This is the last major inflation reading before the Fed's December 8-9 meeting. (kiplinger)
📊 What markets expect
• Consensus is for 0.3% headline and 0.2% core inflation, after September's 0.6% headline and 0.3% core.
• No annual rate will be published because of data disruption from last year's government shutdown. (mlq) (morningstar)
🏦 The Fed backdrop
• The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% in October.
• Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike.
• October payrolls rose 165,000 and unemployment fell to 4.1%.
• Markets price roughly an 80% chance of a 25 bps hike in December. (US October CPI Preview: Inflation Growth May Slow, How Will US Stocks, Dollar and Gold React? +3)
⚠️ The key point
Many expect a cut, but the debate is about a hike. BofA argues a 0.2% core reading would still effectively lock in a December move, and only an indisputably soft 0.1% reading could change the calculus. (investinglive)
🪙 Why crypto traders care
Higher rate expectations usually pressure risk assets like BTC, while a surprisingly soft print can spark a quick relief bounce. Expect volatility around the release, and watch whether the first move holds.
✅ My plan
• Avoid over-leverage around the release
• Wait for the market to settle before entering
• Use stop-losses
What do you expect? 🔥 Hot CPI or ❄️ Cool CPI? Comment below 👇
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook #CPI #Fed #Bitcoin #BinanceSquare
Not financial advice. DYOR.
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the October CPI report today at 8:30 am Eastern. This is the last major inflation reading before the Fed's December 8-9 meeting. (kiplinger)
📊 What markets expect
• Consensus is for 0.3% headline and 0.2% core inflation, after September's 0.6% headline and 0.3% core.
• No annual rate will be published because of data disruption from last year's government shutdown. (mlq) (morningstar)
🏦 The Fed backdrop
• The Fed held rates at 3.75%-4.00% in October.
• Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point hike.
• October payrolls rose 165,000 and unemployment fell to 4.1%.
• Markets price roughly an 80% chance of a 25 bps hike in December. (US October CPI Preview: Inflation Growth May Slow, How Will US Stocks, Dollar and Gold React? +3)
⚠️ The key point
Many expect a cut, but the debate is about a hike. BofA argues a 0.2% core reading would still effectively lock in a December move, and only an indisputably soft 0.1% reading could change the calculus. (investinglive)
🪙 Why crypto traders care
Higher rate expectations usually pressure risk assets like BTC, while a surprisingly soft print can spark a quick relief bounce. Expect volatility around the release, and watch whether the first move holds.
✅ My plan
• Avoid over-leverage around the release
• Wait for the market to settle before entering
• Use stop-losses
What do you expect? 🔥 Hot CPI or ❄️ Cool CPI? Comment below 👇
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook #CPI #Fed #Bitcoin #BinanceSquare
Not financial advice. DYOR.
#CPITestsDecemberRateOutlook