WHY CPI will be COOL today — the reasons behind my 55% call.
Gold $4,124. CPI 7:30 PM Dhaka.
1. GASOLINE FELL
September: gasoline +9.1%, that alone was over half of the +0.6% CPI.
October: gasoline $4.35 to $4.27, average -1%. The driver is gone.
2. CLEVELAND FED NOWCAST
Headline 0.24% / Core 0.21%. The Fed's own model says cool.
3. NOWFLATION
Live prices now: 3.19%, vs 3.7% in September. Forecast 3.78%, below Street 3.9%.
4. ENERGY DRAG GONE
September energy +5.2%. October energy flat to down. No repeat of September.
THE RISK — why it is only 55%, not 90%:
Core printed 0.3% in Aug AND Sept. Rent +0.4% in Sept. Wages +0.4% in Oct, jobs 165K vs 59K expected. If core prints 0.3% again, gold sells to $4,000.
That is the full why. Trade plan is in my last post: IF COOL, BUY $4,125, SL $4,075, TP1 $4,188, TP2 $4,220.
$BTC $ETH
Do you agree — cool or hot?
No buy/sell call, just the market. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto
Gold $4,124. CPI 7:30 PM Dhaka.
1. GASOLINE FELL
September: gasoline +9.1%, that alone was over half of the +0.6% CPI.
October: gasoline $4.35 to $4.27, average -1%. The driver is gone.
2. CLEVELAND FED NOWCAST
Headline 0.24% / Core 0.21%. The Fed's own model says cool.
3. NOWFLATION
Live prices now: 3.19%, vs 3.7% in September. Forecast 3.78%, below Street 3.9%.
4. ENERGY DRAG GONE
September energy +5.2%. October energy flat to down. No repeat of September.
THE RISK — why it is only 55%, not 90%:
Core printed 0.3% in Aug AND Sept. Rent +0.4% in Sept. Wages +0.4% in Oct, jobs 165K vs 59K expected. If core prints 0.3% again, gold sells to $4,000.
That is the full why. Trade plan is in my last post: IF COOL, BUY $4,125, SL $4,075, TP1 $4,188, TP2 $4,220.
$BTC $ETH
Do you agree — cool or hot?
No buy/sell call, just the market. Not financial advice.
#Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto
