TRIFACTOR MACRO REGIME SCORECARD — WEEK 45, 2026
EVALUATED BAR CLOSE: Sunday, November 8, 2026
ACTIVE REGIME: SIGNAL 4 (TOXIC TIGHTENING)
TARGET ALLOCATION: 0% BITCOIN (BTC) | 100% GOLD (XAU) | 0% CASH
MACRO PLUMBING & LIQUIDITY
• Fed Net Liquidity: $5.7908T vs Trend Baseline $5.8197T (-$28.9B deficit, -0.50%)
• Monetary Tap Status: CLOSED (Defensive)
• US Dollar Index: 102.279 (+3.185 multi-week momentum, currency tightening)
• US 10Y Yield: 4.859% (-11.0 bps multi-week momentum, slight bond yield easing)
BITCOIN SYSTEMATIC INDICATORS
• BTC / Gold Ratio: 18.39 oz vs Long-Term Baseline 17.22 oz (+6.81% extended)
• Price Momentum: $74,851.44 vs $83,773.12 reference close (-10.65% momentum breakdown)
• Volatility Filter: 1.15% vs Multi-Month Baseline 4.94% (Low-volatility environment)
• Transition Status: Low volatility requires two consecutive identical weekly closes to confirm a regime shift. Active capital remains locked in Signal 4 defense with zero turnover.
KEY RADAR THRESHOLDS FOR NEXT CLOSE
• Monetary Tap Reopening: Net Liquidity must expand above $5.8197T (+$28.9B expansion)
• Value Accumulation Trigger: BTC/Gold must compress below 17.22 oz (-6.38% drop)
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